Time-clustering of natural hazards

Natural hazards can be represented as point processes that are characterized by the occurrence times of the events and their intensities. It is crucial to investigate the correlation properties of these processes in order to gain a deep knowledge of the dynamical mechanisms which underlie hazardous phenomena. To this end, suitable methodologies must be developed to perform these correlation analyses on processes, which are described as point-like processes. The concept of time-clustering implies a time-structured organization of these processes, and is in direct opposition to the pure randomness typical of Poissonian processes in which the events are uncorrelated. This article reports several examples of natural hazards within the framework of time-clustering.     

小尺度断裂沿层曲率敏感性研究

沿层曲率作为地震属性的一种,不仅有数学几何意义更有着重要的地质意义。和相干体相比,沿层曲率在油气勘探中常被用于刻画地质构造形态及断裂精细解释,特别是在小尺度断裂发育的地区更为有效。而在实际工作中,有时利用沿层曲率所描述的断裂效果不太明显。为进一步明确对于刻画断裂结果的影响因素及其适用条件,以鄂尔多斯盆地Q区Tj9为研究对象,基于Geoeast软件对该区小尺度断裂系统从选取属性、方位角、频带三个方面展开分析。结果表明：（1）曲率比相干体更适用于刻画较小尺度的断层;（2）平面上从平行断裂的方位观测,断裂识别不清晰;从垂直断裂的方位观测,易于识别;（3）在反射层同相轴较强时,中高频段对断裂识别更清楚;在反射层同相轴较弱时,中频段对断裂识别更清楚。因此可以根据不同属性、不同方位角、不同频带对断裂的敏感程度,用不同的数据体解释小尺度断裂,提高对断层刻画的精度,为复杂油气勘探寻找有利区奠定基础。     

优势战略矿产资源矿产地储备的建模及按序推进的量化分析

目前,中国战略矿产资源矿产地储备工作刚刚起步,储备试点工作进程缓慢。本文从储备战略的角度出发,明确了优势战略矿产资源矿产地储备的概念;根据实现不同层次的战略目的,把优势战略矿产资源矿产地储备划分为三个等级——战略储备、优势储备和调控储备,并分别建立了相应的储备规模模型;针对中国矿产地储备试点工作推进过程中所遇到的困难和问题,提出了"储备顺序"的概念,并对影响矿产地储备的影响因子进行分析,明确了中国首批拟储备矿种(煤炭、稀土、钨和锑)的储备顺序。分级储备及按序推进可以明确工作流程,提高优势战略矿产资源矿产地储备工作效率。     

农田尺度土壤水分的监测

根据田间试验实测资料分析了田间土壤水分的空间变化特征和时间动态变化,探索了监测农田水分变化时如何确定其合理的取样数目,讨论了农田尺度的土壤水分应如何监测,为节水灌溉,提高田间用水管理水平提供科学依据。     

渭河河漫滩宏观弥散度计算

宏观弥散度的确定对地下水溶质运移至关重要。利用竖管法野外现场测定900个点的垂向饱和渗透系数Kv值,然后进行统计分布检验,运用地质统计学中负指数模型在有块金效应影响的条件下拟合出ln Kv的空间相关尺度λ值,进而利用λ与宏观弥散度关系式求解渭河漫滩非饱和带的宏观弥散度。结果表明,研究区整体Kv平均值为0.012cm/s,方差为1.33,表明Kv空间差异性较大;垂向渗透系数基本服从对数正态分布规律,满足宏观弥散度计算条件;估算整体纵向宏观弥散度为21.27m,各排计算结果约2.11~4.65m。     

青藏高原现代降水中dδ^18O／dT的变化

不同时间尺度ｄδ＾１８Ｏ／ｄＴ的天气气候意义是不同的，其数值大小也是不一样的。本根据对青藏高原沱沱河、德令哈、西宁三站大气降水中δ＾１８Ｏ与温度关系的分析，并与具有长序列资料的地区进行比较。初步给出了青藏高原不同时间尺度ｄδ＾１８Ｏ／ｄＴ之间的差异。     

Church-based social capital, networks and geographical scale: Katrina evacuation, relocation, and recovery in a New Orleans Vietnamese American community

This research examines the role of social capital and networks to explain the evacuation, relocation, and recovery experiences of a Vietnamese American community in New Orleans, Louisiana in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. As the single largest community institution, the parish church’s complex bonding and bridging social capital and networks proved particularly critical in part because of its historically based ontological security. The process of evacuation, but especially relocation and recovery, was dependent on deploying co-ethnic social capital and networks at a variety of geographical scales. Beyond the local or community scale, extra-local, regional, and national scales of social capital and networks reproduced a spatially redefined Vietnamese American community. Part of the recovery process included constructing discursive place-based collective-action frames to successfully contest a nearby landfill that in turn engendered social capital and networks crossing ethnic boundaries to include the extra-local African American community. Engaging social capital and networks beyond the local geographical scale cultivated a Vietnamese American community with an emergent post-Katrina cultural and political identity.     

Time‐scale analysis in unsaturated porous media under external wave loads

Extreme waves caused by tsunamis and storm surges can lead to soil failures in the near‐shore region, which may have severe impact on coastal environments and communities. Multiphase flows in deformable porous media involve several coupled processes and multiple time scales, which are challenging for numerical simulations. The objective of this study is to investigate the roles of the various processes and their interactions in multiphase flows in unsaturated soils under external wave loading, via theoretical time‐scale analysis and numerical simulations. A coupled geomechanics–multiphase flow model based on conservation laws is used. Theoretical analysis based on coupled and decoupled models demonstrates that transient and steady‐state responses are governed by pore pressure diffusion and saturation front propagation, respectively, and that the two processes are essentially decoupled. Numerical simulations suggest that the compressibility of the pore fluids and the deformation of the soil skeleton are important when the transient responses of the media are of concern, while the steady‐state responses are not sensitive to these factors. The responses obtained from the fully coupled numerical simulations are explained by a simplified time‐scale analysis based on coupled and decoupled models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrochemical variation in the springs water between Jerusalem–Ramallah Mountains and Jericho Fault,Palestine

The spatial and temporal changes of the composition of the groundwater from the springs along the Wadi Qilt stream running from the Jerusalem–Ramallah Mountains towards the Jericho Plain is studied during the hydrological year 2006/2007. The residence time and the intensity of recharge play an important role in controlling the chemical composition of spring water which mainly depends on distance from the main recharge area. A very important factor is the oxidation of organics derived from sewage and garbage resulting in variable dissolved CO₂ and associated HCO₃ ⁻ concentration. High CO₂ yields lower pH values and thus under-saturation with respect to calcite and dolomite. Low CO₂ concentrations result in over-saturation. Only at the beginning and at the end of the rainy season calcite saturation is achieved. The degradation of dissolved organic matter is a major source for increasing water hardness. Besides dissolution of carbonates dissolved species such as nitrate, chloride, and sulfate are leached from soil and aquifer rocks together with only small amounts of Mg. Mg not only originates from carbonates but also from Mg–Cl waters are leached from aquifer rocks. Leaching of Mg–Cl brines is particularly high at the beginning of the winter season and lowest at its end. Two zones of recharge are distinguishable. Zone 1 represented by Ein Fara and Ein Qilt is fed directly through the infiltration of meteoric water and surface runoff from the mountains along the eastern mountain slopes with little groundwater residence time and high flow rate. The second zone is near the western border of Jericho at the foothills, which is mainly fed by the under-groundwater flow from the eastern slopes with low surface infiltration rate. This zone shows higher groundwater residence time and slower flow rate than zone 1. Groundwater residence time and the flow rate within the aquifer systems are controlled by the geological structure of the aquifer, the amount of active recharge to the aquifer, and the recharge mechanism. The results of this study may be useful in increasing the efficiency of freshwater exploitation in the region. Some precautions, however, should be taken in future plans of artificial recharge of the aquifers or surface-water harvesting in the Wadi. Because of evaporation and associated groundwater deterioration, the runoff water should be artificially infiltrated in zones of Wadis with high storage capacity of aquifers. Natural infiltration along the Wadis lead to evaporation losses and less quality of groundwater.