Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran

Knowledge of the internal renewable water resources of a country is strategic information which is needed for long‐term planning of a nation's water and food security, among many other needs. New modelling tools allow this quantification with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study we used the program Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in combination with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program (SUFI‐2) to calibrate and validate a hydrologic model of Iran based on river discharges and wheat yield, taking into consideration dam operations and irrigation practices. Uncertainty analyses were also performed to assess the model performance. The results were quite satisfactory for most of the rivers across the country. We quantified all components of the water balance including blue water flow (water yield plus deep aquifer recharge), green water flow (actual and potential evapotranspiration) and green water storage (soil moisture) at sub‐basin level with monthly time‐steps. The spatially aggregated water resources and simulated yield compared well with the existing data. The study period was 1990–2002 for calibration and 1980–1989 for validation. The results show that irrigation practices have a significant impact on the water balances of the provinces with irrigated agriculture. Concerning the staple food crop in the country, 55% of irrigated wheat and 57% of rain‐fed wheat are produced every year in water‐scarce regions. The vulnerable situation of water resources availability has serious implications for the country's food security, and the looming impact of climate change could only worsen the situation. This study provides a strong basis for further studies concerning the water and food security and the water resources management strategies in the country and a unified approach for the analysis of blue and green water in other arid and semi‐arid countries. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究

加卸载响应比理论是近年来提出的地震预测方法。本文进行了加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究，其中包括中国大陆地区5．0～8．1级的部分中强地震共30个震例，并得出加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度与未来地震震级之间的拟合函数。结果表明，地震前加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度与未来地震的震级具有正变关系，即震级越高，地震前加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度越长。根据加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度与震级之间的关系可以估计未来地震的发震时间，同时，可以确定加卸载响应比时空扫描过程中时问长度的大小。     

基于VisIt的全球科学数据并行可视化——以大气温度场为例

针对当前大规模全球科学数据可视化中存在的单机可视化数据量有限、从底层开发并行可视化系统难度大等问题,该文基于分布式环境和VisIt,提出了一种简便、开放而又有效的大规模全球科学数据可视化方法。介绍了VisIt的体系结构及运行机制,给出了自定义数据的并行可视化方法;并基于NCEP数据集及全球空间格网,在小规模集群环境下实现了小粒度适应性球体退化八叉树格网(SDOG)下的全球大气温度场的并行可视化。VisIt的并行可视化性能测试结果表明:通过增加计算节点,VisIt能有效摆脱传统单机可视化对数据量的限制,可实现大规模全球科学数据的并行可视化。     

尺度政治视角下的地缘能源安全评价方法及应用

通过引入政治地理学的尺度政治、国际关系学的安全理论和能源安全理论,考虑到能源争夺中的尺度转换、地缘环境中的地缘关系和地缘结构以及安全的三个属性等因素,重新构建了地缘能源安全评价模型,并基于此模型对1995-2010 年俄罗斯太平洋石油管道建设中的中国地缘石油能源安全进行了定量评价。结果表明：① 从时间上来看,中国在俄罗斯太平洋石油管道建设中的地缘石油安全指数不断攀升,中国在此石油能源尺度政治争夺中越来越处于不利地位,考虑到今后韩国、美国等国家的参与,竞争将更加激烈;② 从地缘关系上看,中日两国能源竞争指数趋于减少,但是两国从俄罗斯进口能源竞争加剧;③ 俄罗斯能源出口战略长期以来一直偏重欧洲,但是已经出现转向的趋势,其能源出口战略指数已显著下降;④ 中国石油消费的比重稳定和中俄之间友好关系在一定程度上缓解了中国地缘石油能源安全;⑤ 从地缘结构上来看,中国经济增长带动下的整体综合国力的增强,将会加剧东北亚地区的地缘石油竞争。     

干旱区油蒿种群结构和分布格局分析

对宁夏中卫市沙坡头、甘肃古浪县鸣沙咀和民勤县扎子沟这3个干旱区天然油蒿分布区的油蒿种群结构和空间分布格局进行了研究,其中根据大小结构图和存活曲线分析油蒿种群动态,用平均拥挤度m*、丛生指数(I)、聚块性指标(m*/m)、Cassie指标(CA)、扩散系数C、负二项分布中的K指标来判断格局类型并且根据双项轨迹方差法来分析格局规模。结果表明,沙坡头和扎子沟油蒿种群处于稳定阶段,鸣沙咀固定沙地和半固定沙地的油蒿种群处于增长阶段;各油蒿种群的分布格局类型为聚集分布,但是各样地聚集度大小存在着差异,具体表现为:鸣沙咀半固定沙地鸣沙咀固定沙地沙坡头样地扎子沟样地;对各样地种群格局规模的分析表明格局规模存在差异。     

南京市近地层湍流结构及输送特征研究

本文利用"城市生物气溶胶研究”中的超声风温仪观测资料,对南京市近地层大气的湍流强度、相关系数、速度谱及通量输送等进行研究,得到南京市近地层湍流结构及输送特征的一些结论.     

Issues of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Climate Impact Studies

The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances.     

中国城市(包括辖县)的工业职能分类——理论、方法和结果

在城市发展的经济基础理论的指导下,作者提出城市工业职能的概念包括城市的专业化部门、职能强度和职能规模三个要素。城市工业职能分类就是按照上述三要素的相似性和差异性对城市进行分类。本研究曾采用主因素分析、聚类分析和纳尔逊的统计分析等多种方法。最后以沃德误差法的聚类分析结果作为分类的基础,稍加修正,并以纳尔逊法分析结果作补充。中国1984年的295个城市被分成三个大类、十九个亚类和五十四个职能组。     

The Space That Race Makes

This essay is a revision of a paper prepared for an NSF workshop on race and geography. Participants in the workshop were asked to offer their views on the topic and our suggestions for further research. This contribution explores some aspects of the relationship and relevance of geography to the question of race in North America. It touches on three “places” that constitute the discipline: the place of research, the place of teaching, and the workplace. With respect to research, it suggests some promising lines of inquiry. Among these are studies of the relationship of scale to the politics of identity and studies of “passing” in connection with studies of geographies of experience and geographies of power.