鲁中南隆起区第四纪晚期断裂活动特征

根据野外调查，并综合前人的研究资料，对鲁中南地区第四纪晚期断裂活动进行了分析，研究表明，鲁中南隆起区第四纪断裂活动具有时空不均匀性，主要表现为第四纪时期断层活动强度变化和断裂活动的群集性以及第四纪晚期断裂活动段分布的局限性上。对于鲁中南地区而言，活动断层可以分为中更新世中期（500kaBP)至晚更新世初期（90kaBP)活断层和晚更新世中、晚期至全新世早期活断层两类；其中前一类（主要是中更新世断裂）断裂数量较多，分布较为广泛，而晚更新世晚期以来的活动断裂段的数量较少，分布较局限。它们对地震的控制能力不同，前者可控制5．5级左右的地震，而后一类可控制6－7级地震的发生。     

东海区近海强风预报模式

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。     

Stability Design System of Submarine Pipelines

This paper introduces a stability design system of submarine pipelines. The system can provide a reasonable design procedure for users with reference to domestic and foreign methods and in the light of home engineering experience.     

台湾及其邻海的重力特征与构造、地震的关系

分析认为，在台湾及其邻海的重力场中，具有短波长特征的空间重力异常受地形与海深所制约．玉山的200×10     

浙北地区旱涝预报问题探讨—一种汛期降水量长期预报方法

本文分析了当地前期气象要素——温度的演变特点与汛期降水量之间的关系,建立了两者之间的回归方程,并由此作出降水量的长期预报,从预报误差和试报结果看,效果是好的。     

烟威渔场盐度预报及分析

本文以我国北黄海的烟威渔场为研究对象,采用优选因子场预报模式,对盐度的时空变化进行预报试验。文中对所采用的统计预报方法,作了简要介绍。对影响本海区盐度变化的显著因子及预报结果作了初步分析。预报试验表明:预报的总体平均绝对误差为0.27‰,预报相对误差在18％左右,预报误差小于0.5‰的站数占总站数的85％,预报趋势与实测资料基本一致。     

Siltation Prediction for Navigation Channels and Harbour Basins on Muddy Beach

- This paper, after briefly reviewing the experimental research on sediment transport on muddy beach since the 1950s, improves and perfects the method for forecasting siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins which was first put forward in China by the authors. In consideration of silty sediment and sand, some factors in forecasting methods have been changed and modified. Consequently, the modified methods can be used either to compute siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins on muddy beach or to compute siltation and scouring in navigation channels and harbour basins on both silty beach and sandy beach. The verification of field data from eleven large, medium and small natural harbours shows a good agreement between the forecasting by the modified method and the natural conditions. Finally, the paper deals with the rational utilization of water area after the construction of the West Dyke in Lianyungang, the maintenance of water depth of the navigation channel at the entrance, siltation distribution, siltation in the navigation channel and harbour basin for ships of 100 thousand tonnnage. Results once again prove that the prospect of constructing Lianyungang Harbour into a deepwater harbour is bright.     

Fatigue Behavior of Plain Concrete Under Biaxial Compression: Experiments and Theoretical Model

The effects of different lateral confinement stress on the fatigue behavior of and cumulative damage to plain concrete are investigated experimentally. Eighty 100 mm x 100 mm x 100 mm specimens of ordinary strength concrete are tested under constant- or variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure in two orthogonal directions. A fatigue equation is developed by modifying the classical Aas-Jakobsen S-N equation for taking into account the effect of the confined stress on fatigue strength of plain concrete. The results of variable-amplitude fatigue tests indicate that the linear damage theory proposed by Palmgren and Miner is unreasonable in the biaxial stress state. A nonlinear cumulative damage model that could model the effects of the magnitude and sequence of variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure is proposed on the basis of the evolution laws of the residual strains in the longitudinal direction during fatigue tests. The residual fatigue life predic     

一种基于BP算法学习的小波神经网络

为发展 Szu的基于信号表示的小波神经网络 ,提出一种多输入多输出的小波网络模型 ,网络隐层采用框架小波函数、输出层采用 Sigmoid激励函数 ,并选用“熵误差函数”以加速网络的学习速度。奇偶判别和混沌时间序列预测例子的实验结果表明了它具有良好的函数逼近能力和推广能力 ,收敛速度和均方误差均优于相同结构的多层感知器模型。     

黄海、渤海底层温度数值预报方法的研究

根据文献［ｌ］建立的底层温度（ＴＨ）与其水柱垂向平均温度（）的经验关系，结合流体动力学方程和（垂向平均）热传导方程，发展了以水气温差和风速为已知量的底层温度二维数值预报模式。该模式避开了海面热量和动量输入在垂直水柱中分配的复杂物理过程而直接报出底层水温场，具有较好的实用性；此外，从试报结果看，效果令人满意。