Landslide risk assessment using concepts of danger pixels and fuzzy set theory in Darjeeling Himalayas

Landslide risk assessment (LRA) is a key component of landslide studies. The landslide risk can be defined as the potential for adverse consequences or loss to human population and property due to the occurrence of landslides. The LRA can be regional or site-specific in nature and is an important information for planning various developmental activities in the area. LRA is considered as a function of landslide potential (LP) and resource damage potential (RDP). The LP and RDP are typically characterized by the landslide susceptibility zonation map and the resource map (i.e., land use land cover map) of the area, respectively. Development of approaches for LRA has always been a challenge. In the present study, two approaches for LRA, one based on the concept of danger pixels and the other based on fuzzy set theory, have been developed and implemented to generate LRA maps of Darjeeling Himalayas, India. The LRA map based on the first approach indicates that 1,015 pixels of habitation and 921 pixels of road section are under risk due to landslides. The LRA map derived from fuzzy set theory based approach shows that a part of habitat area (2,496 pixels) is under very high risk due to landslides. Also, another part of habitat area and a portion of road network (7,204 pixels) are under high risk due to landslides. Thus, LRA map based on the concept of danger pixels gives the pixels under different resource categories at risk due to landslides whereas the LRA map based on the concept of fuzzy set theory further refines this result by defining the degree of severity of risk to these categories by putting these into high and low risk zones. Hence, the landslide risk assessment study carried out using two approaches in this paper can be considered in cohesion for assessing the risks due to landslides in a region.     

基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价

汶川Ms 80级大地震诱发了数以万计的滑坡灾害。在大约48678 km2的滑坡影响区域内,作者采用震后遥感影像解译并结合野外调查的方法,共解译出48007处滑坡。应用GIS技术,建立了汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害及相关地形、地质空间数据库。采用地震滑坡确定性系数分析方法,分析了地震滑坡关于地震烈度、岩性、坡度、断层、高程、坡向、河流与公路等8个因素的易发程度。基于GIS栅格分析方法,分别对16种不同影响因子组合类型进行地震滑坡易发性评价。最后,应用AUC（Area Under Curve,评价曲线下面积）方法得到最佳因子组合及其对应的评价结果,使用自然分类法则方法将研究区按滑坡易发程度分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区与极低易发区5类,极高易发区与高易发区面积之和约1169046km2,占研究区总面积的2402%,其中发育滑坡面积为52484 km2,占滑坡总面积的7373%。结果表明了极高与高易发区与实际滑坡之间有着良好的一致性,方法的评价结果成功率（AUC值）达到82107%。     

滑坡敏感性评价中因子分类方法的研究

本文以嘉陵江燕子河流域为例,研究因子分类对滑坡敏感评价效果的影响。选取的影响因子有高程、坡度、坡向、平面曲率、剖面曲率、地层岩性、到断层距离、到道路距离、归一化植被覆盖指数、地形湿度指数和标准化降水指数。因子分类所依据的数据不同会导致分类结果不同,从而影响敏感性制图的效果,因此本文分别以滑坡点和研究区所有点为分类依据对连续型因子进行分类并对比其性能。连续型影响因子的最优分类数目采用拐点法确定,对应的分类间隔采用自然间断法确定。离散型影响因子按实际情况进行分类。因子分类之后,本文采用支持向量机构建敏感性评价模型,并用受试者工作特征曲线评价模型性能。结果显示,拐点法和自然间断法可以很好地应用于滑坡敏感性评价的连续型影响因子分类之中。相比于采用整个研究区数据进行因子分类,利用滑坡点确定的分级标准更好,得到的敏感性图也更优。两种方法对应的曲线下面积分别是0.82（以研究区所有点作为分类数据）和0.87（以滑坡点作为分类数据）。本文绘制的嘉陵江燕子河流域滑坡敏感性图与滑坡的分布符合较好,对研究区的防灾减灾工作有参考作用。     

Use of fuzzy relations to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide prone area (West Black Sea Region, Turkey)

Preparation of landslide susceptibility maps is important for engineering geologists and geomorphologists. However, due to complex nature of landslides, producing a reliable susceptibility map is not easy. For this reason, many procedures have been used to produce such maps. In this study, a new attempt is tried to produce landslide susceptibility map of a part of West Black Sea Region of Turkey. To obtain the fuzzy relations for producing the susceptibility map, a landslide inventory database is compiled by both field surveys and airphoto studies. A total of 266 landslides are identified in the study area, and dominant mode of failure is rotational slide while the other mode of failures are soil flow and shallow translational slide. The landslide inventory and the parameter maps are analyzed together using a computer program (FULLSA) developed in this study. The computer program utilizes the fuzzy relations and produces the landslide susceptibility map automatically. According to this map, 9.6% of the study area is classified as very high susceptibility, 10.3% as high susceptibility, 8.9% as moderate susceptibility, 27.5% as low susceptibility and 43.8% as very low susceptibility or nonsusceptible areas. The prediction performance of the susceptibility map is checked by considering actual landslides in the study area. For this purpose, strength of the relation (r_ij) and the root mean square error (RMSE) values are calculated as 0.867 and 0.284, respectively. These values show that the produced landslide susceptibility map in the present study has a sufficient reliability. It is believed that the approach employed in this study mainly prevents the subjectivity sourced from the parameter selection and provides a support to improve the landslide susceptibility mapping studies.     

Susceptibility and triggering scenarios at a regional scale for shallow landslides

The work aims at identifying susceptible areas and pluviometric triggering scenarios at a regional scale in Calabria (Italy), with reference to shallow landsliding events. The proposed methodology follows a statistical approach and uses a database linked to a GIS that has been created to support the various steps of spatial data management and manipulation. The shallow landslide predisposing factors taken into account are derived from (i) the 40-m digital terrain model of the region, an  15,075 km² extension; (ii) outcropping lithology; (iii) soils; and (iv) land use. More precisely, a map of the slopes has been drawn from the digital terrain model. Two kinds of covers [prevalently coarse-grained (CG cover) or fine-grained (FG cover)] were identified, referring to the geotechnical characteristics of geomaterial covers and to the lithology map; soilscapes were drawn from soil maps; and finally, the land use map was employed without any prior processing.Subsequently, the inventory maps of some shallow landsliding events, totaling more than 30,000 instabilities of the past and detected by field surveys and photo aerial restitution, were employed to calibrate the relative importance of these predisposing factors.The use of single factors (first level analysis) therefore provides three different susceptibility maps. Second level analysis, however, enables better location of areas susceptible to shallow landsliding events by crossing the single susceptibility maps.On the basis of the susceptibility map obtained by the second level analysis, five different classes of susceptibility to shallow landsliding events have been outlined over the regional territory: 8.9% of the regional territory shows very high susceptibility, 14.3% high susceptibility, 15% moderate susceptibility, 3.6% low susceptibility, and finally, about 58% very low susceptibility.Finally, the maps of two significant shallow landsliding events of the past and their related rainfalls have been utilized to identify the relevant pluviometric triggering scenarios. By using 205 daily rainfall series, different triggering pluviometric scenarios have been identified with reference to CG and FG covers: a value of 365 mm of the total rainfall of the event and/or 170 mm/d of the rainfall maximum intensity and a value of 325 mm of the total rainfall of the event and/or 158 mm/d of the rainfall maximum intensity are able to trigger shallow landsliding events for CG and FG covers, respectively.The results obtained from this study can help administrative authorities to plan future development activities and mitigation measures in shallow landslide-prone areas. In addition, the proposed methodology can be useful in managing emergency situations at a regional scale for shallow landsliding events triggered by intense rainfalls; through this approach, the susceptibility and the pluviometric triggering scenario maps will be improved by means of finer calibration of the involved factors.     

Description of dynamics of the Tuzla Landslide and its implications for further landslides in the northern slope and shelf of the Cinarcik Basin (Marmara Sea, Turkey)

Seismic and multi-beam bathymetric data from the northern shelf and slope of the Cinarcik Basin, which is generated by the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) located in the easternmost basin in the Marmara Sea, were re-interpreted to better understand the future sub-marine landslide susceptibility. Seismic data indicate that upper surface of the sub-marine extension of the Paleozoic rocks has an NNE–SSW oriented basin and a ridge type morphology controlled by the secondary faults of the NAFZ. Basins are fulfilled by Plio-Quaternary sediments, which are cut by strike-slip faults on the shelf and slope. The thickness of basin deposits reaches up to 130 m toward the linear northern slope of the Cinarcik Basin. A relatively recent sub-marine landslide, the Tuzla Landslide, cuts the slope of the Cinarcik Basin. The detailed morphological investigation indicates that the Tuzla Landslide is a deep-seated rotational landslide, which was likely triggered by activity of the NAFZ. Morphological analyses also indicate that the thick Plio-Quaternary deposits on the Paleozoic basement slid during the Tuzla Landslide event. This landslide is considered as a key event to understand the dynamics of the potential landslides on the northern shelf and slope of the Cinarcik Basin. Two areas locating on the eastern and the western sides of the Tuzla Landslide are considered as the potential areas for future sliding due to similarities of geological and geomorphological features with the Tuzla Landslide such as similar thick Plio-Quaternary deposits, similar slope morphology, and similar fault activity cutting the sediments. Considering this information, the purposes of the present study are to determine the dynamics of the possible landslide areas and to discuss their effects on the sub-marine morphology. In the light of the interpretations, the amounts of possible displaced material are obtained. Three different landslide scenarios due to possible slide surfaces for future landslides are developed and assessed. The first scenario is sliding of the sediments at the shelf break. The third scenario is a mass movement of almost whole basin deposits on the Paleozoic rocks. The latter one is evaluated as less important because of the volume of the displaced material, and the latter one is accepted as lowest possible event. Among the scenarios, the second scenario is accepted as the most critical and possible because of the amount of the slipped material and existence of faults rupture, which is considered as further sliding surfaces. These landslides will result in important changes in shelf, slope and basin floor in the study area.     

基于ArcGIS信息量模型在乌鲁木齐市城区地质灾害易发性评价的效果分析

在地质灾害点分布图基础上,基于信息量模型,选定研究区地质灾害发育各影响因子及信息量值,据实际情况人为对信息量负值进行修正,同时利用ArcGIS的空间叠加分析完成研究区地质灾害易发性分区图。结果显示,易发性分区结果与野外实际调查情况相吻合,能在地质灾害风险评价中起重要参考作用。     

Analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Suusamyr region, Tien Shan: statistical and geotechnical approach

The Suusamyr region is located in the northern part of the Tien Shan Range in Central Asia. In 1992, this region was hit by the Ms = 7.3 Suusamyr earthquake triggering several large landslides along the Suusamyr Valley and on the southern slopes of the adjacent Suusamyr Range. One of these landslides had been investigated by geophysical and geotechnical methods in order to determine local trigger factors. The present paper focuses on the influence of geological and morphological factors upon landslide occurrence on a regional scale. The analysis is based on a digital data set including landslides triggered in 1992 and several older landslides as well as various types of digital elevation models (DEMs), ASTER image data, and geological and active fault maps. These data were combined to compute landslide susceptibility (LS) maps using statistical methods, Landslide Factor and Conditional Analyses (LFA, CA), as well as a geotechnical one, the Newmark's Method (NM). The landslide data set was also analyzed with respect to the size–frequency relationship. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Vulnerability assessment of rainfall-induced debris flows in Taiwan

A GIS-based decision support system, which incorporates local topographic and rainfall effects on debris flow vulnerability is developed. Rainfall at a scale compatible with the digital elevation model resolution is obtained using a neural network with a wind-induced topographic effect and rainfall derived from satellite rain estimates and an adaptive inverse distance weight method (WTNN). The technique is tested using data collected during the passage of typhoon Tori-Ji on July 2001 over central Taiwan. Numerous debris flows triggered by the typhoon were used as control for the study. Our results show that the WTNN technique outperforms other interpolation techniques including adaptive inversed distance weight (AIDW), simple kriging (SK), co-kriging, and multiple linear regression using gauge, and topographic parameters. Multiple remotely-sensed, fuzzy-based debris-flow susceptibility parameters are used to describe the characteristics of watersheds. Non-linear, multi-variant regressions using the WTNN derived rainfall and topography factors are derived using self-organizing maps (SOM) for the debris flow vulnerability assessment. An index of vulnerability representing the degrees of hazard is implemented in a GIS-based decision support system by which a decision maker can assess debris flow vulnerability.     

First-level liquefaction hazard mapping of Laoag City,Northern Philippines

During the 1990 Luzon earthquake (M_s 7.8), the central part of Luzon Island, Philippines suffered much from liquefaction-related processes. Examination of inventories shows that the affected areas lie on certain geological environments that are characteristically vulnerable to liquefaction. Based on this local experience and the findings of earlier workers correlating geological setting with liquefaction susceptibility, a first-level map of liquefaction hazard for Laoag City, Northern Philippines, was produced. Distinct micro-geomorphological units were identified within the mainly fluvio-deltaic setting of the study area. The liquefaction susceptibility of each unit was then ranked as high, moderate, low or non-liquefiable, taking also the geomorphological evolution of the area into account. The geomorphological model of the fluvio-deltaic basin was tested against the results of the georesistivity survey carried out in this study. Moreover, compatibility of the liquefaction susceptibility map with historical liquefaction records supported the validity of the proposed ranking. The study showed that microzonation based on geomorphological criteria is indeed very useful in less-developed countries like the Philippines, where funds for a more rigorous determination of liquefaction potential are limited and not always available.