On the Influence of Sea Surface Height Variability on Satellite Altimeter Derived Gravity

The effect of sea surface height (SSH) variability is one of the primary factors that limit the accuracy and resolution of altimeter-derived gravity values. We propose a method to estimate the influence of variation of the sea surface height on the accuracy of satellite-derived gravity by simulation technique, with a case study around Indonesian waters. Wederived an Indonesian marine gravity map using the Geosat-geodetic mission (GM). Since most of the area studied is located around coastal and shallow areas, the measurement of SSH of this area is less accurate. To obtain a distribution of SSH variability over the study area, Topex/Poseidon (T/P) data were first processed and assessed. Processing 52 cycles of the Topex/Poseidon data, the root mean square (RMS) of SSH variability for each cycle was found to vary from 1 to 179 cm. Further, for the purpose of estimating the accuracy of altimeter-derived gravity, we derived several levels of Gaussian noise, computed simulation data by adding the Gaussian noise to Geosat data, and determined simulated gravity maps. Based on the distribution of RMS values from T/P data and standard deviation (STD) differences between the simulated and the original gravity maps, we estimated the accuracy of the gravity map. Around Indonesian waters, the accuracy of the gravity map influenced by SSH variation was estimated to be within the range 0.8~93 mgal.     

Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.     

利用SIR-C极化数据提取地面参数

本文根据简化的积分公式模型（ＩＥＭ）,分析了面散射过程中后向散射系数与地面参数之间的关系。利用航天飞机成像雷达（ＳＩＲ－Ｃ）获取极化的雷达图像,提取新疆北部地区冲扇的散射系数以及介电常数（湿度）与粗糙度。由图像获得的地面参数数据,可以用于分布冲积扇成因、时代以及其次的关系。     

5个全球气候模式对中国东北地区地面温度的模拟与预估

利用5个全球气候模式和中国东北地区162个站点地面温度实测资料,评估全球气候模式和多模式集合平均对中国东北地区地面温度的模拟能力,并对SRES B1、A1B和A2排放情景下,中国东北地区未来地面温度变化进行预估。结果表明：全球气候模式能够较好地再现了东北地区地面温度的年变化和空间分布特征,但存在系统性冷偏差,模式对夏季地面温度模拟偏低1.16 ℃,优于冬季。预估结果表明,3种排放情景下21世纪中期和末期东北地区地面温度均将升高,末期增幅高于中期,冬季增幅高于其他季节, SRES A2排放情景下增幅最大,B1排放情景下最小;增温幅度自南向北逐渐增大,增温最显著地区位于黑龙江小兴安岭;21世纪末期3种情景下中国东北地区年平均地面温度将分别升高2.39 ℃(SRES B1)、3.62 ℃(SRES A1B)和4.43 ℃(SRES A2)。     

走滑断层地震地表断裂位错估计方法研究

为对一次地震中可能造成的地表断裂位错作出较准确的估计,采用拟静力弹塑性有限元方法,分别对覆盖土层为粉质黏土和黏土情况下,走滑断层引发的地震地表断裂进行了数值模拟分析。根据历史震害数据回归拟合的震级M与基岩位错 的关系式以及数值计算结果,建立了震级M与地表位错 的关系式。公式中考虑了土层厚度H对地表位错 的影响,而不仅仅局限于根据震级M的大小通过统计公式来估算地表断裂位错 。结果表明,走滑断层引发的地震地表断裂位错不仅与震级的大小有关,还与土层厚度和土层性质有关;在相同震级作用下,随着土层厚度的增加,地表位错逐渐减小;在相同震级和相同土层厚度下,上覆土层为粉质黏土时产生的地表位错要大于上覆土层为黏土时产生的地表位错;根据拟合的公式估计出不同震级情况下可不考虑走滑断层影响的临界覆盖土层厚度值,有助于提高活动断裂地震危险性评估工作的可靠性。     

Evapotranspiration Estimation Based on MODIS Products and Surface Energy Balance Algorithms for Land （SEBAL） Model in Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

In this study,the Surface Energy Balance Algorithms for Land(SEBAL) model and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) products from Terra satellite were combined with meteorological data to estimate evapotranspiration(ET) over the Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China.Land cover/land use was classified by using a recursive partitioning and regression tree with MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) time series data,which were reconstructed based on the Savitzky-Golay filtering approach.The MODIS product Quality Assessment Science Data Sets(QA-SDS) was analyzed and all scenes with valid data covering more than 75% of the Sanjiang Plain were selected for the SEBAL modeling.This provided 12 overpasses during 184-day growing season from May 1st to October 31st,2006.Daily ET estimated by the SEBAL model was misestimaed at the range of-11.29% to 27.57% compared with that measured by Eddy Covariance system(10.52% on average).The validation results show that seasonal ET from the SEBAL model is comparable to that from ground observation within 8.86% of deviation.Our results reveal that the time series daily ET of different land cover/use increases from vegetation on-going until June or July and then decreases as vegetation senesced.Seasonal ET is lower in dry farmland(average(Ave):491 mm) and paddy field(Ave:522 mm) and increases in wetlands to more than 586 mm.As expected,higher seasonal ET values are observed for the Xingkai Lake in the southeastern part of the Sanjiang Plain(Ave:823 mm),broadleaf forest(Ave:666 mm) and mixed wood(Ave:622 mm) in the southern/western Sanjiang Plain.The ET estimation with SEBAL using MODIS products can provide decision support for operational water management issues.     

2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震动力学背景的数值模拟实验

2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0地震发生在龙门山断裂带.本文基于龙门山断裂带的地质与地球物理研究结果,以及高精度的地形数据、大地热流测量数据,建立了以龙门山断裂带为主要研究对象的有限元模型;以GPS观测数据、构造应力场和震源破裂过程研究结果为约束,研究了此次强烈地震的动力学背景.模拟实验结果显示:在考虑青藏高原物质向东挤压流动的同时,青藏高原与四川盆地的地形差异和流变强度差异、断层摩擦强度差异和断层产状形式均对地震起始破裂的发生位置和断层错动形式有着重要影响.本文利用地球动力学的有限元软件模拟了汶川地震地表破裂在龙门山断裂带上传播的过程.     

鄂尔多斯地区上地幔岩石圈三维速度结构面波反演研究

双平面波拟合法是一种新的面波成像方法,反演中考虑地震波场中的非平面波成分,提高反演的分辨率.本文利用双平面波拟合法,反演获得鄂尔多斯地区上地幔岩石圈的速度结构.所用资料为国家数字地震台网69个宽频带地震仪和北京大学34个流动数字地震台观测到的地震波面波资料.首先从面波记录中提取了研究区域20~125 s瑞利波相速度频散曲线,进而得到各个周期瑞利波相速度异常分布图.结果显示,短周期瑞利波相速度异常与地表的构造特征吻合较好,中长周期的瑞利波相速度可以反映出上地幔岩石圈的速度异常分布以及构造特征.由研究区20~125 s的瑞利波相速度分布图可以反演得到地表到地下200 km范围内的三维剪切波速度结构.结果显示,鄂尔多斯块体内部稳定均一,活化或改造的痕迹不明显;鄂尔多斯块体西南缘受到青藏高原的强烈作用,有大量地幔物质流动的痕迹存在;中央转换带下超过200 km深度存在地幔物质上涌,可能与太平洋板块的俯冲和青藏高原板块的挤压有关.     

东昆仑断裂带东部塔藏断裂地震地表破裂特征及其构造意义

The East Kunlun fault zone is located in the northern margin of the Bayan Har block. The study of earthquake rupture behavior in the fault zone is of importance for understanding the future seismic risk in northwest Sichuan. A number of geological field investigations, typical micro topography DGPS measurements and sample dating show that the earthquake activity of the East Kunlun fault zone extends to the north boundary of Zoige basin, a segment known as the Luocha segment of Tazang fault. In the satellite image, the segment is seen clearly as gray and yellow strips. The earthquake deformation zone mainly features fault scarp, valleys on the slope, offset gullies and terraces, linear distribution of plants, waterfall, fault spring, fault sag pond, and landslide, collapse and talus associated with surface rupturing. These phenomena are distributed intermittently along the re-existing fault and form a ～50km-long inverse L-shaped deformation zone. Fault activities caused left-lateral offset of gullies and terraces, with horizontal displacement concentrated at 5.5m~6m, 18m～23m, 68m～75m, and 200m～220m, respectively. The recent earthquake occurred between 340±30～500±30BP. The macro epicenter is located 5km～7km northwest of Benduo village, with magnitude of MW7.3～7.4, maximum coseismic displacement of 6m, horizontal displacement 5.5m～6m and vertical displacement 0.2m～0.5m, being in a proportion of 5∶1～10∶1. These phenomena show that the Tazang fault is the causative fault of this earthquake. The fault is a Holocene active fault and was dominated recently by left-lateral movement with a small amount of thrust component under compressive shear stress. This characteristic is similar to the movement in other segments of the East Kunlun fault zone. The results of this study support the "continental escape" model.     

玉树M_S7.1地震时空破裂过程及与地表破裂带的对应关系

根据IRIS全球地震台网15个台的长周期地震仪记录的P波资料,用远场体波地震图反演震源破裂过程的方式,研究了2010年4月14日玉树MS7.1地震震源破裂,并与震后调查地表破裂带做了对比。结果表明:玉树地震在总体上是一次单侧破裂事件,破裂从初始破裂点(即震源位置)开始向东南方向展开,破裂离震源20km处开始贯穿至地表,沿走向方向延伸了约50km,最大滑移量达2m。这些结果与震后考察得到的地表破裂带的特征十分吻合。