Uncertainty in structural interpretation: Lessons to be learnt

Uncertainty in the interpretation of geological data is an inherent element of geology. Datasets from different sources: remotely sensed seismic imagery, field data and borehole data, are often combined and interpreted to create a geological model of the sub-surface. The data have limited resolution and spatial distribution that results in uncertainty in the interpretation of the data and in the subsequent geological model(s) created. Methods to determine the extent of interpretational uncertainty of a dataset, how to capture and express that uncertainty, and consideration of uncertainties in terms of risk have been investigated. Here I review the work that has taken place and discuss best practice in accounting for uncertainties in structural interpretation workflows. Barriers to best practice are reflected on, including the use of software packages for interpretation. Experimental evidence suggests that minimising interpretation error through the use of geological reasoning and rules can help decrease interpretation uncertainty; through identification of inadmissible interpretations and in highlighting areas of uncertainty. Understanding expert thought processes and reasoning, including the use of visuospatial skills, during interpretation may aid in the identification of uncertainties, and in the education of new geoscientists.     

Preliminary evaluation of the occurrence of herbicides and PAHs in the Wet Tropics region of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, using passive samplers

The proximity of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Marine Park to areas of intensive agriculture and increasing urbanisation places the park under potential threat of contamination by land-based pollutants. Passive samplers were deployed at inshore reef and river mouth sites in the Wet Tropics region of the GBR during a dry and a wet season to measure levels of land-based organic pollutants in this environment. Two types of passive sampling devices were deployed: (i) a polar sampler, which can be used to monitor polar herbicides and (ii) semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) which sequester more hydrophobic compounds (e.g. PAHs, chlorpyrifos). Herbicides (diuron, simazine, atrazine, hexazinone and/or flumeturon) were detected at low concentrations (ng L⁻¹) at all sites sampled and in both seasons. Chlorpyrifos was not detected while PAHs were present in SPMDs at levels below limits of detection. The results show that the GBR environment does contain low levels of organic pollutants and that passive sampling provides a sensitive monitoring tool for measuring waterborne organic pollutants.     

Observations of C2H6 and C2H2 in the stratosphere of Saturn

We have performed high-resolution spectral observations at mid-infrared wavelengths of C₂H₆ (12.16 μm), and C₂H₂ (13.45 μm) on Saturn. These emission features probe the stratosphere of the planet and provide information on the hydrocarbon photochemical processes taking place in that region of the atmosphere. The observations were performed using our cryogenic echelle spectrometer Celeste, in conjunction with the McMath-Pierce 1.5-m solar telescope in November and December 1994. We used Voyager IRIS CH₄ observations (7.67 μm) to derive a temperature profile on the saturnian atmosphere for the region of the stratosphere. This profile was then used in conjunction with height-dependent volume mixing ratios of each hydrocarbon to determine global abundances for ethane and acetylene. Our ground-based measurements indicate abundances of for C₂H₆ (1.0 mbar pressure level), and for C₂H₂ (1.6 mbar pressure level). We also derived new mixing ratios from the Voyager mid-latitude IRIS observations; 8.6±0.9×¹⁰⁻⁶ for C₂H₆ (0.1-3.0 mbar pressure level), and 1.6±0.2×¹⁰⁻⁷ for C₂H₂ (2.0 mbar pressure level).     

Synthesis, crystal structure and crystal chemistry of ferri-clinoholmquistite, ?Li 2Mg 3Fe 3+ 2Si 8O 22(OH) 2

This work reports the synthesis of ferri-clinoholmquistite, nominally _Li2(Mg₃Fe³⁺₂)Si₈O₂₂(OH)₂, at varying f_O2 conditions. Amphibole compositions were characterized by X-ray (powder and single-crystal) diffraction, microchemical (EMPA) and spectroscopic (FTIR, Mössbauer and Raman) techniques. Under reducing conditions ( NNO+1, where NNO = Nickel–Nickel oxide buffer), the amphibole yield is very high (>90%), but its composition, and in particular the FeO/Fe₂O₃ ratio, departs significantly from the nominal one. Under oxidizing conditions ( NNO+1.5), the amphibole yield is much lower (<60%, with Li-pyroxene abundant), but its composition is close to the ideal stoichiometry. The exchange vector of relevance for the studied system is ^M2(Mg,Fe²⁺) ^M4(Mg,Fe²⁺) ^M2Fe³⁺_–1 ^M4Li_–1, which is still rather unexplored in natural systems. Amphibole crystals of suitable size for structure refinement were obtained only at 800 °C, 0.4 GPa and NNO conditions (sample 152), and have C2/m symmetry. The X-ray powder patterns for all other samples were indexed in the same symmetry; the amphibole closest to ideal composition has a = 9.428(1) Å, b = 17.878(3) Å, c = 5.282(1) Å, = 102.06(2)°, V = 870.8(3) ų. Mössbauer spectra show that Fe³⁺ is strongly ordered at M2 in all samples, whereas Fe²⁺ is disordered over the B and C sites. FTIR analysis shows that the amount of ^CFe²⁺ increases for increasingly reducing conditions. FTIR data also provide strong evidence for slight but significant amounts of Li at the A sites.     

建筑结构抗震研究若干基本问题概述及讨论

本文介绍和讨论了结构抗震研究中的一些基本问题,包括地震反应分析选择地面运动输入应注意的问题,高层结构地震模拟试验问题和结构地震反应分析中的主要分析方法和存在的问题,最后简要介绍了目前常用结构反应分析程序。     

The crystal chemistry of lithium and Fe3+ in synthetic orthopyroxene

Lithian ferrian enstatite with Li₂O = 1.39 wt% and Fe₂O₃ 7.54 wt% was synthesised in the (MgO–Li₂O–FeO–SiO₂–H₂O) system at P = 0.3 GPa, T = 1,000°C, fO₂ = +2 Pbca, and a = 18.2113(7), b = 8.8172(3), c = 5.2050(2) Å, V = 835.79(9) Å³. The composition of the orthopyroxene was determined combining EMP, LA-ICP-MS and single-crystal XRD analysis, yielding the unit formula ^M2(Mg_0.59Fe _0.21 ²⁺ Li_0.20) ^M1(Mg_0.74Fe _0.20 ³⁺ Fe _0.06 ²⁺ ) Si₂O₆. Structure refinements done on crystals obtained from synthesis runs with variable Mg-content show that the orthopyroxene is virtually constant in composition and hence in structure, whereas coexisting clinopyroxenes occurring both as individual grains or thin rims around the orthopyroxene crystals have variable amounts of Li, Fe³⁺ and Mg contents. Structure refinement shows that Li is ordered at the M2 site and Fe³⁺ is ordered at the M1 site of the orthopyroxene, whereas Mg (and Fe²⁺) distributes over both octahedral sites. The main geometrical variations observed for Li-rich samples are actually due to the presence of Fe³⁺, which affects significantly the geometry of the M1 site; changes in the geometry of the M2 site due to the lower coordination of Li are likely to affect both the degree and the kinetics of the non-convergent Fe²⁺-Mg ordering process in octahedral sites.     

kSZ from patchy reionization: The view from the simulations

We present the first calculation of the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect due to the inhomogeneus reionization of the universe based on detailed large-scale radiative transfer simulations of reionization. The resulting sky power spectra peak at ℓ = 2000–8000 with maximum values of [ℓ(ℓ + 1)C_ℓ/(2π)]_max  4–7 × 10 ⁻¹³. The scale roughly corresponds to the typical ionized bubble sizes observed in our simulations, of 5–20 Mpc. The kSZ anisotropy signal from reionization dominates the primary CMB signal above ℓ = 3000. At large-scales the patchy kSZ signal depends only on the source efficiencies. It is higher when sources are more efficient at producing ionizing photons, since such sources produce larger ionized regions, on average, than less efficient sources. The introduction of sub-grid gas clumping in the radiative transfer simulations produce significantly more power at small-scales, but has little effect at large-scales. The patchy reionization kSZ signal is dominated by the post-reionization signal from fully-ionized gas, but the two contributions are of similar order at scales ℓ  3000 − 10⁴, indicating that the kSZ anisotropies from reionization are an important component of the total kSZ signal at these scales.     

岷江上游潜在性泥石流堰塞湖危害及判识

汶川地震造成泥石流形成条件的改变,其次生灾害堰塞湖的危害已开始显现。如何对震后潜在性泥石流堰塞湖进行判识,成为迫切需要解决的问题。选取岷江上游映秀至汶川段为研究区,通过分析震后泥石流形成条件的变化、典型泥石流堰塞湖的危害及松散物质储量,选取潜在性泥石流堰塞湖的判识指标,利用模糊物元可拓模型,建立潜在性泥石流堰塞湖的综合判识模式。通过判识,研究区形成泥石流堰塞湖可能性高的一级支沟有17条,主要集中分布在映秀镇至草坡乡段,此段将是今后受堰塞湖危害的高危地段。     

孟加拉湾风暴Mala结构及对云南强降水的影响

利用实时观测资料和NCEP(1°×1°)的6 h再分析资料,对2006年春季发生在孟加拉湾的超强风暴Mala的移动路径、强度变化、环流背景以及风暴温湿场、动力场特征等进行分析。结果表明:Mala在阿拉伯副热带高压和西太平洋副热带高压两高间辐合区生成、加强,并沿西太平洋副热带高压西侧西南或偏南气流移动。风暴发展、成熟到消亡,湿度对风暴的作用比温度明显;动力场结构除具有台风结构的一般特征外,在风暴发展期,中心附近散度场从低层到高层为辐合和辐散交替结构,表明风暴内部高空辐散抽吸作用对于风暴发展起到重要作用。登陆后风暴低压内自身能量和水汽与冷空气共同作用下,在冷暖交汇处出现强烈的上升运动和激发出中尺度辐合线是造成云南强降水主要原因。