Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

On the estimation of mooring line characteristic resistance for reliability analysis

The main aim of this work is to derive a correct formulation for the characteristic resistance of a mooring line segment with lognormally distributed component resistances and substitute an equation proposed by Vazquez-Hernandez et al. [Vazquez-Hernandez AO, Ellwanger GB, Sagrilo LVS. Reliability-based comparative study for mooring lines design criteria. Appl Ocean Res 2006; 28(6):398–406] in a paper published in this journal, which is not correct. The mooring line is considered as a series system and the resistances of individual components of a line segment are statistically independent and identically distributed; furthermore, the case of normally distributed component resistances is also discussed. A comparison with the corresponding equation proposed by DNV-OS-E301 is given. Results show that the formula proposed by Vazquez-Hernandez et al. [Vazquez-Hernandez AO, Ellwanger GB, Sagrilo LVS. Reliability-based comparative study for mooring lines design criteria. Appl Ocean Res 2006; 28(6):398–406] overestimates quite significantly the characteristic resistance of a mooring line segment.     

A dynamic response analysis of tension leg platforms including hydrodynamic interaction in regular waves

A numerical procedure is described for predicting the motion and structural responses of tension leg platforms (TLPs) in waves. The developed numerical approach, in a TLP is assumed to be flexible instead of rigid, is based on a combination of the three dimensional source distribution method and the finite-element method. The hydrodynamic interactions among TLP members, such as columns and pontoons, are included in the motion and structural response analysis. Numerical results are compared with the experimental and numerical ones. The results of comparison confirmed the validity of the proposed approach.     

Reliability-based comparative study for mooring lines design criteria

The characteristic environmental load effect for the design of mooring systems of floating units can be defined by means of three procedures: (a) the one associated to an extreme sea state with a given return period, (b) the worst one from a set of sea states on a contour line associated to a return period or (c) the extreme one based on response statistics for a long-term period. This work presents the result of a reliability-based partial safety factor calibration study for a LRFD mooring line design criteria considering the three approaches mentioned above. The calibration exercise is applied to three FPSOs considering North Sea environmental conditions and different water depths: 200, 800 and 3000 m. The mooring systems investigated take into account mooring lines made up of chains and polyester ropes. It is shown that, among all cases investigated, the design procedure based on the long-term response is the one that presents less scattered reliability indices around the target level.     

A methodology for assessing the reliability of taut and slack mooring systems against instability

In the present study, a methodology for reliability assessment of slack and taut mooring systems against instability has been presented. For this purpose, first, stability analysis of slack and taut mooring systems has been carried out and instable regions are obtained using procedure available in the literature. Having known the instable region(s), methodology for reliability assessment has been proposed which is based on Monte Carlo Simulation technique. After using the proposed methodology, probabilities of failure and reliability indices has been obtained for the above systems. Some parametric studies, such as, effect of lower and upper limits of instability and effect of frequency range of generations are also included to obtain the results of practical interest.     

Structural monitoring of offshore platforms using impulse and relaxation response

Monitoring offshore platforms, long span bridges, high rise buildings, TV towers and other similar structures is essential for ensuring their safety in service. Continuous monitoring assumes even greater significance in the case of offshore platforms, which are highly susceptible to damage due to the corrosive environment and the continuous action of waves. Also, since a major part of the structure is under water and covered by marine growth, even a trained diver cannot easily detect damage in the structure. In the present work, vibration criterion is adopted for structural monitoring of jacket platforms. Artificial excitation of these structures is not always practicable and ambient excitation due to wind and waves may not be sufficient for collecting the required vibration data. Alternate methods can be adopted for the same purpose, for example, the application of an impact or a sudden relaxation of an applied force for exciting the structure. For jacket platforms, impact can be applied by gently pushing the structure at the fender while relaxation can be accomplished by pulling the structure and then suddenly releasing it using a tug or a supply vessel in both cases. The present study is an experimental investigation on a laboratory model of a jacket platform, for exploring the feasibility of adapting vibration responses due to impulse and relaxation, for structural monitoring. Effects of damage in six members of the platform as well as changes in deck masses were studied. A finite element model of the structure was used to analyze all the cases for comparison of the results as well as system identification. A data acquisition and analysis procedure for obtaining the response signatures of the platform due to the impulse and relaxation procedure was also developed for possible adoption in on-line monitoring of offshore platforms. From the study, it has been concluded that both impulse and relaxation responses are useful tools for monitoring offshore jacket platforms. The present work forms the basis for the development of an automated, on-line monitoring system for offshore platforms, using neural networks.     

Dynamic data integration for structural modeling: model screening approach using a distance-based model parameterization

This paper proposes a novel history-matching method where reservoir structure is inverted from dynamic fluid flow response. The proposed workflow consists of searching for models that match production history from a large set of prior structural model realizations. This prior set represents the reservoir structural uncertainty because of interpretation uncertainty on seismic sections. To make such a search effective, we introduce a parameter space defined with a “similarity distance” for accommodating this large set of realizations. The inverse solutions are found using a stochastic search method. Realistic reservoir examples are presented to prove the applicability of the proposed method.     

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.