都安一次特大暴雨过程卫星和雷达图像特征分析

利用彩色增强显示的卫星云图、雷达和自动气象站资料对2010年5月31日22时至6月1日11时都安县出现的特大暴雨进行分析,发现这次暴雨过程由2个强降雨阶段组成,造成都安县特大暴雨的原因是1个形成于滇黔桂交界处的低涡在南移过程中,低涡东边缘对流强烈发展,对流云团主体移过都安而产生了强降雨,对应着这2个强降雨阶段,在卫星云图上分析出是由2个对流云团前后移过所造成的,在雷达回波图上可分析出对流云团中又先后有多个对流单体移过都安县上空,所以造成了这次特大暴雨过程     

2008年7月14—15日川西暴雨过程的温度层结变化分析

2008年7月14-15日,四川盆地西部"5.12"汶川大地震重灾区在非典型热力条件下出现了一次暴雨天气过程.本文利用常规观测资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对其天气形势及温度层结变化特征进行了详细分析.结果表明:(1)暴雨发生在副热带高压不断西伸的环流背景下,低层偏南气流及其风速脉动对暴雨产生具有重要作用.(2)暴雨开始于850hPa θse下降及大气层结为弱稳定的非典型热力条件下,但700 hPa θse突增使得700-500 hPa对流性不稳定层建立,从而利于对流运动发展;暴雨过程后期,因850 hPa和700 hPa θse急剧下降和大气层结稳定度增大,对流上升受到明显抑制.(3)低层θse锋区和水汽辐合对强降水具有指示意义,暴雨落区位于850 hPa和700 hPa θse锋区前沿,降水中心位于水汽汇合中心附近.     

一次华南暴雨过程中不同区域降水特征的模拟分析

通过对2005年6月19-20日的一次华南大暴雨过程的诊断分析表明,本次降水过程的水汽来源有两个,一是来自于印度洋上的印度季风,另一个是来自于澳大利亚的东南信风.对不同暴雨中心的分析表明,福建北部的降水带为华南准静止锋锋面上的系统性降水,假相当位温的经向垂直剖面呈明显的Ω型结构,而广东河源附近的暴雨中心为暖区对流性降水,低层为强的不稳定.利用ARPS模式对这次暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,结果表明,锋面雨带主要来自于网格降水的贡献,而对流性降水主要来自于次网尺度降水的贡献.     

青草沙水库工程的风险识别

青草沙水库工程属大型水利工程。工程在施工阶段和运行期间,均存在不确定性因素多、风险因素和风险事件发生概率大的特点。本文利用风险识别方法,对青草沙水库工程不同阶段的风险进行了识别。     

西南低涡暴雨的湿位涡诊断分析

文章分析了１９８１年７月１１－１５日的一次与西南低涡有关的四川特大暴雨过程中的湿位涡变化，发现湿位涡由负变正预示着暴雨的威弱和消失；同时利用湿位涡方程进行了诊断计算，结果表明:暴雨的发展趋势与位涡变率的变化趋势基本一致，位涡变率的正负转换对预报大暴雨的形成和减弱有一定的指示意义。      

Suspended sediment in rapid subsurface stormflow on a large field plot

The occurrence of rapid movement of suspended sediment in subsurface stormflow on a large field plot in California is described. Concentrations of over 1000mgl^?1 were recorded in storms of only low to moderate intensity. The observed sediment was composed of uniformly fine-sized particles 4 to 8 μm in diameter. The mode of transport seems different from processes previously reported. Differences in sediment concentrations in different events, levels of ¹³⁷Cs on the sediment, and several other types of evidence indicate that the sediment was detached and entrained at the ground surface by raindrop impact and that the water and sediment flow occurred mainly through macropores in the soil. As conditions similar to those at the study site are not uncommon, it seems probable that the phenomenon may occur in many regions.     

一次切变线暴雨过程的诊断研究和数值试验

本文对1998年6月12～13日的一次长江中下游切变线暴雨过程进行了诊断研究并使用一个η坐标细网格暴雨数值模式对其作了数值试验。结果发现，与该暴雨过程相联系的β中尺度系统主要表现在低层的切变线及地面的β中尺度气旋，气旋的东移和发展引起长江中下游大范围强降水，在启动该场暴雨过程中，位势不稳定起了决定性的作用；深厚的β中尺度“涡柱”是该暴雨雨团的明显特征；地形对暴雨的强度和范围均有重要影响，该切变线强度对暴雨过程的降水量也有明显影响。     

How are storm time injections different from nonstorm time injections?

One of the key elements of storms and substorms is the injection of energetic particles into the region of near geosynchronous orbit, that is, the sudden flux enhancement in the energy range of tens to hundreds of keV. This paper reports the observational results on how such injection features during storm times are different from those of nonstorm times. We particularly focus on the difference between proton injections and electron injections. Based on a number of storm time injection events that meet our strict selection criteria, we find a notable difference between proton injections and electron injections in the energy-spectral dependence of the flux enhancement averaged over the first 30 min after the injection onset: The average flux enhancement of many protons injections tends to be bigger at higher energy channels than at lower energy channels, but electron injections exhibit the opposite tendency for the energy-spectral dependence of flux enhancement, i.e., average flux enhancement decreasing with increasing energy. We show that this feature is almost unique only for the injection events during the storm main and early recovery phase. It is suggested that any successful scenario intended to model storm time injections should be able to explain this difference between proton injections and electron injections.     

RESEARCH ON FORECASTING STORM DEBRIS FLOWS

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Some observations on suspended sediment dynamics in Storbregrova,Jotunheimen

Observations are reported of the dynamics of suspended sediment transport in the meltstream of Storbreen in the Jotunheimen. Fine sediment is transferred from the subglacial to the proglacial environment during low flow (meltdominated) periods, and then removed from the catchment during high flow (rainfall-controlled) events. Both diurnal and storm period sediment load-discharge relationships involve clockwise hysteresis, but separate multivariate rating curves define variations of load with streamflow according to (1) the relative importance of meltwater and rainfall runoff, and (2) changes in the sediment source areas contributing to the stream at different times. Particle size variations in the suspended sediment also reflect varying source area influences.