青岛灵山岛下白垩统湖泊风暴沉积与风暴作用

灵山岛背来石剖面发育了非常典型的湖泊风暴岩和风暴作用。非常典型的丘、洼状构造发育在火山岩底部的砂页岩中。丘状构造呈典型的丘状,规模不一,小者高数厘米,宽数十厘米;大者高2. 4m,宽12. 48m;具有典型的二元结构：底部为灰色或浅灰色的砂砾岩或砂岩;顶部为深灰色 黑色泥岩、页岩或薄层砂岩互层。砂砾岩分选磨圆均很差,砾石主要为片麻岩,直径多在数毫米到3~4cm,呈悬浮式胶结。砾岩底部为凹凸不平的侵蚀面,砾岩向丘状构造两翼变薄甚至尖灭,与下部侵蚀面呈典型的角度交切。丘状构造的上部的细粒层有四个要素：①上凸形态;②丘状交错层理;③下细上粗的二元结构;④底部具侵蚀面。洼状构造也具有典型的洼状,规模也不一,小者高数厘米,宽十余厘米;大者高2. 4m,宽18. 70m,具有下细上粗的（反)二元结构,但底部多为深灰 灰黑色、甚至黑色的泥岩、页岩或夹薄层砂岩,上部多为砂岩、砂砾岩或砾岩。完整的洼状构造也有四个要素：①下凹形态;②或有洼状交错层理;③下细上粗的（反)二元结构;④底部具侵蚀面。丘状构造与洼状构造在空间上相邻共生,但不是同时形成的,一个连续的完整序列是丘状构造形成在先,洼状构造形成在后,其间由一个粒度较细的薄层分隔开（风暴最高水位时的“静”水沉积)。基于实验和丘洼构造参数计算了风暴浪的相关参数。     

DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SEA CURRENTS AND SEDIMENT DISPERSION IN THE YELLOW RIVER ESTUARY

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中国年最大致洪暴雨落区研究

分析了1900-1999年逐年全国最大致洪暴雨落区的区域分布和年际间迁移轨迹.结果表明:中国年最大致洪暴雨落区的年际间迁移轨迹是无序的;年最大致洪暴雨可以随机地出现在中国(主要在90°E以东地区)任何地区;华中和华东地区是出现年最大致洪暴雨频次最高的地区.也分析了1470-1899年逐年的年最大洪涝中心的区域分布和年际间迁移轨迹,其结果支持20世纪中国年最大致洪暴雨落区分布和年际间迁移轨迹分析所得出的认识.上述事实表明,中国7大江河中的任何一条,每年都可能出现全国最大的暴雨洪水,而且无法预见其在年际间迁移的方向与落区.因此,中国不得不立足于此客观事实确立全国防洪战略.     

The identification of runoff-production mechanisms using environmental isotopes in a tussock grassland catchment,eastern otago,New Zealand

A previous hydrometric study of runoff production in tussock grassland drainage basins in Otago (45°50′S, 169°45′E), New Zealand, revealed a marked change of slope in storm hydrograph recessions. An environmental isotope study was initiated to investigate the runoff mechanisms operating and to test specific hypotheses to explain this break in the hydrograph recession. The results indicated that for quickflow volumes in excess of 10mm, the first part of the storm hydrograph can be attributed to two separate sources, namely, ‘old’ water from a shallow, unconfined groundwater reservoir and ‘new’ water from saturation overland flow on the lower wetlands of concave slopes. Despite the extensive area of wetlands, ‘old’ water runoff from the unconfined groundwater reservoir is delivered more rapidly to the stream than ‘new’ water from saturation overland flow. Substantial surface storage in the wetlands has first to be exceeded before rain becomes a significant part of stream discharge. For quickflow volumes less than 10mm, only ‘old’ water from groundwater contributes to the first part of the hydrograph recession. This means that only the largest 7 per cent of storms (in terms of quickflow volume) generate quickflow containing significant amounts of ‘new water’. The second part of the recession of the storm hydrograph consists of ‘old’ water derived from a remarkably well-mixed shallow unconfined groundwater body.     

The global value of coastal wetlands for storm protection

Coastal wetlands provide a range of valuable ecosystem services, including protecting coastal communities from storms. We estimated for the first time the global value of these storm protection services for all coastal wetlands for both damages avoided and lives saved. We used the historical tracks of 1,014 tropical cyclones since 1902 that recorded property damage and/or human casualties in 71 countries/regions. We used Bayesian and OLS statistical techniques to relate storm damages and lives lost to: wind speed, storm forward speed, the year of the storm, the volume of ocean water proximal to landfall, and GDP, population, and coastal wetlands in the swath of the storm. Based on current storm probabilities, we estimate the median annual global value of coastal wetlands for storm protection at $447 billion/yr (2015$US) ($213 - $837 billion/yr, 90% CI) and 4,620 lives saved per year (3,320 – 6,550, 90% CI). The 40 million hectares of coastal wetlands in storm prone areas provided an average of $11,000/ha/yr in avoided storm damages. The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones has been increasing in recent decades and is projected to further increase with climate change. Consequently, the already significant benefits from protecting and restoring coastal wetlands will become increasingly important and valuable in the future. These results justify much larger investments in conservation and restoration of coastal wetlands.     

不依赖天气预报具有一定预报时效的风暴潮预报

本文试图从大气运动方程出发,提出一种极坐标形式的风暴潮定解问题,并用作者以前导出的一种风场公式,求解风暴潮高。然后用相关统计方法确定风暴潮预报式的系数,以期寻找一种不依赖天气预报又具有一定预报时效的风暴潮预报方法。     

Kalman滤波风暴潮数值预报四维同化模式研究进展

本文首先介绍了Kalman滤波在风暴潮数值预报中的应用，特别介绍了近年来国际上发展的一些在实际中可行的次优化Kalman滤波算法。并通过一个稳态Kalman滤波风暴潮数值预报模式的实例表明，使用资料同化可以明显改进风暴潮后报结果；资料同化能够提供更为合理的预报初始场，对风暴潮的短期预报有较明显的改进。一旦没有资料同化到模式中去，预报结果很快接近确定性模式。     

Modeling of storm-induced coastal flooding for emergency management

This paper describes a model package that simulates coastal flooding resulting from storm surge and waves generated by tropical cyclones. The package consists of four component models implemented at three levels of nested geographic regions, namely, ocean, coastal, and nearshore. The operation is automated through a preprocessor that prepares the computational grids and input atmospheric conditions and manages the data transfer between components. The third generation spectral wave model WAM and a nonlinear long-wave model calculate respectively the wave conditions and storm surge over the ocean region. The simulation results define the water levels and boundary conditions for the model SWAN to transform the storm waves in coastal regions. The storm surge and local tides define the water level in each nearshore region, where a Boussinesq model uses the wave spectra output from SWAN to simulate the surf-zone processes and runup along the coastline. The package is applied to hindcast the coastal flooding caused by Hurricanes Iwa and Iniki, which hit the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1982 and 1992, respectively. The model results indicate good agreement with the storm-water levels and overwash debris lines recorded during and after the events, demonstrating the capability of the model package as a forecast tool for emergency management.     

Development of a model-based high-resolution extreme surface wind climatology for Switzerland

An innovative methodology aimed at establishing a numerical model-based high-resolution climatology of extreme winds over Switzerland is described, that makes use of the Canadian Regional Climate Model where a new windgust parameterization has been implemented. Self-nesting procedures allow windstorms to be studied at resolution as high as 2-km. The analysis of ten major windstorms concludes that the average spatial pattern and magnitude of the simulated windspeeds are well captured, and the areas that experienced extreme winds correspond well with observations and to the location where forest damage was reported following the last two of these storms. This climatology would eventually serve to form risk assessment maps based on the exceedance of windspeed thresholds. There is, however, a need for further investigations to encompass the full range of potential extreme wind cases. The ultimate goal of this methodology is to assess the change in the behaviour of extreme winds for a climate forced by enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, and the impact of future windstorms over the Alpine region at high resolution.     

Field-based monitoring of sediment runoff from natural gas well sites in Denton County,Texas, USA

This study evaluates sediment runoff from gas well development sites in Denton County, Texas. The magnitude of sediment runoff was investigated by intercepting sediment in traps and weirs at the periphery of each gas well site and by measuring the growth of debris lobes that formed down slope from two sites. Four debris lobes formed at one gas well site and one formed at a second site. Debris lobes ranged in size from 30 to 306 square meters. Sediment from one site entered local creek channels, either as a component of storm water runoff or, in one case, as a debris lobe that flowed into a channel. The study findings suggest that sediment movement is significantly diminished once areas disturbed by gas well construction become naturally re-vegetated. Based on estimates of debris lobe volumes, sediment loading rates of about 54 metric tonnes per hectare per year were calculated for one site. It is concluded that gas well development sites in areas similar to those studied, especially where vegetation has been removed and terrain has relatively steep slopes (greater than 6%), generate sediment runoff comparable to small construction sites and should therefore be considered for regulations requiring erosion and sediment control measures.