中国东南沿海潮灾与防潮对策研究

中国东南沿海是中风暴潮灾害的最严得岸段，本文针对闽，粤，海南三省台风暴潮灾害概况，防潮现状及其存在问题，提出防潮减灾的对策和见解，以祈提醒人们居安思危，防患未然。     

Physical criteria for distinguishing sandy tsunami and storm deposits using modern examples

Modern subaerial sand beds deposited by major tsunamis and hurricanes were compared at trench, transect, and sub-regional spatial scales to evaluate which attributes are most useful for distinguishing the two types of deposits. Physical criteria that may be diagnostic include: sediment composition, textures and grading, types and organization of stratification, thickness, geometry, and landscape conformity.

Published reports of Pacific Ocean tsunami impacts and our field observations suggest that sandy tsunami deposits are generally < 25 cm thick, extend hundreds of meters inland from the beach, and fill microtopography but generally conform to the antecedent landscape. They commonly are a single homogeneous bed that is normally graded overall, or that consists of only a few thin layers. Mud intraclasts and mud laminae within the deposit are strong evidence of tsunami deposition. Twig orientation or other indicators of return flow during bed aggradation are also diagnostic of tsunami deposits. Sandy storm deposits tend to be > 30 cm thick, generally extend < 300 m from the beach, and will not advance beyond the antecedent macrotopography they are able to fill. They typically are composed of numerous subhorizontal planar laminae organized into multiple laminasets that are normally or inversely graded, they do not contain internal mud laminae and rarely contain mud intraclasts. Application of these distinguishing characteristics depends on their preservation potential and any deposit modifications that accompany burial.

The distinctions between tsunami and storm deposits are related to differences in the hydrodynamics and sediment-sorting processes during transport. Tsunami deposition results from a few high-velocity, long-period waves that entrain sediment from the shoreface, beach, and landward erosion zone. Tsunamis can have flow depths greater than 10 m, transport sediment primarily in suspension, and distribute the load over a broad region where sediment falls out of suspension when flow decelerates. In contrast, storm inundation generally is gradual and prolonged, consisting of many waves that erode beaches and dunes with no significant overland return flow until after the main flooding. Storm flow depths are commonly < 3 m, sediment is transported primarily as bed load by traction, and the load is deposited within a zone relatively close to the beach.     

基于偏最小二乘回归的冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数的特征诊断

针对现有风暴轴指数分析大多采用相关分析等较为简单方法,难以对风暴轴指数变化有效诊断分析的问题,引入偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least Square Regression,PLS)的线性方法和核偏最小二乘回归方法(Kernel Partial Least Square Regression,KPLS),对冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数变化进行了特征诊断研究,并与传统的线性无偏最小二乘回归结果进行了试验比对。结果表明:偏最小二乘回归方法的诊断结果能够更好地反映风暴轴内部变化规律,并有效降低诊断误差。对于PNYI(北太平洋风暴轴纬度指数),采用r0. 2的因子筛选方案(r为因子与风暴轴指数的相关系数)并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳;对于PNXI(北太平洋风暴轴经度指数)和PNII(北太平洋风暴轴强度指数),采用全因子方案并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳。     

一次罕见飑前强降雹超级单体风暴特征分析

2009年6月5日,受一个飑线前超级单体雷暴的影响,上海部分地区出现了直径25—30mm的冰雹,随后,飑线尾随该超级单体扫过上海,造成大风、雷电和强降水天气。基于常规天气观测、多普勒天气雷达、风廓线仪和自动气象站等资料分析发现,该超级单体发生在东北冷涡西南侧的高空强冷平流与低空暖平流形成的强不稳定层结背景下,超级单体风暴发生、发展在飑线前的暖区中,经过由"热岛效应"和海陆风锋共同形成的低空辐合线时明显加强发展;该风暴呈现出"指"状、"楔"状、弱回波区(WER)等超级单体雷达反射率特征,"指"状回波处出现了中气旋的径向速度特征,具有标志大冰雹的三体散射长钉(TBSS)特征回波,通过三体散射长钉多普勒速度发现了大冰雹的下降区和增长区。分析还表明:东北冷涡西南侧横槽南摆导致中空降温,0℃层和-20℃层高度明显下降,为冰雹的空中增长提供较好的温度环境条件,较低的0℃层也保证冰雹在空中下落中融化较少。双风廓线仪对比观测表明,超级单体发展的低空风场环境中具有较大的垂直风切变和风暴相对螺旋度,中尺度对流系统与环境场的相互作用形成了有利于风暴发展和维持的正反馈机制。飑线前超级单体雷暴与飑线主体关系密切,起到类似"箭"与"弓"的引导作用,飑线主体的一部分进入超级单体所遗留下的"冷"区后明显减弱,东侧入海后也逐渐减弱,其余部分仍在发展加强;最终,强风暴逐渐减弱,超级单体特征也开始消失,飑线与之合并形成新的"人"字型中尺度对流系统,新的"弓"形回波带与原回波带相比移动方向发生右偏,因此,飑前超级单体在飑线主体移动和演变的临近预报中有重要指示意义。     

"龙王"(LONGWANG)台风过程湿位涡的诊断分析

本文应用MM5V3中尺度数值模式对0519号台风“龙王”过程进行了数值模拟,利用模拟结果计算了台风过程湿位涡(Moist Potential Vorticity,MPV)的演变,从湿位涡的角度研究了台风过程大暴雨的产生机制。结果表明:倾斜涡度发展是“龙王”台风在福建沿海产生大暴雨的重要机制之一,湿位涡能够对暴雨落区的预报有较强的指示性作用,暴雨产生在θse线陡立的对流层中低层MPV1等值线密集带中零线附近,对流层中高层的MPV2负值区可以作为暖湿气流或涡旋活动的示踪;另外,对流层中高层中高纬度冷空气扩散南下与台风的东南暖湿空气在福建沿海交汇,加剧了气旋性涡度发展,对暴雨的发生发展也有巨大的作用。     

一种风暴轴逐日监测的方法及应用

提出了一种风暴轴逐日监测的方法, 可以获得逐日的风暴轴变化情况。并且采用了动态阈值定义了新的风暴轴的强度和位置指数, 从而可以有效对比不同层次、不同区域、不同时间的风暴轴变化情况。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行了监测结果的诊断分析。结果表明:各气象要素滤波结果都能表现出两个风暴轴主体, 但有位置上的差别。同时可以利用逐日检测的结果求得逐候、逐月的风暴轴监测结果。在不同高度的风暴轴中, 250~300 hPa高度的风暴轴强度最大, 850 hPa有极小值出现, 各层风暴轴强度呈现准正压结构。采用500 hPa高度场风暴轴监测结果做代表, 讨论了两大洋上各自的风暴轴偏强/偏弱、偏东/偏西、偏北/偏南时同期大气环流的500 hPa高度场和300 hPa纬向风场差异。     

A simplified hindcast method for the estimation of extreme storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins

Human presence, coastal erosion, and tourism activities are increasing the attention to coastal flooding risk. To perform risk assessments, long time series of observed or hindcast wave parameters and tide levels are then necessary. In some cases, only a few years of observation are available, so that observed extreme data are not always representative and reliable. A hindcast system aimed to reconstruct long time series of total tide levels may be of great help to perform robust extreme events analysis and then to protect human life, activities as well as to counteract coastal erosion by means of risk assessments. This work aims to propose a simplified method to hindcast storm surge levels time series in semi-enclosed basins with low computational costs. The method is an extension of a previous work of some of the authors and consists of a mixed approach in which the estimation of storm surge obtained by using the theory of linear dynamic system is corrected by using a statistical method. Both steps are characterized by low computational costs. Nevertheless, the results may be considered reliable enough also in view of the simplicity of the approach. The proposed method has been applied to the Manfredonia case study, a small village located in the Southern Adriatic Italian coast and often prone to coastal flooding events. The comparison of extreme events estimated on the basis of hindcast levels time series is satisfactorily similar to those estimated on the basis of observed tide series.     

Large-scale dune erosion tests to study the influence of wave periods

Large-scale physical model tests were performed to quantify the effects of the wave period on dune erosion. Attention was focussed on 2D cross-shore effects in a situation with sandy dunes and extreme water levels and wave conditions. Besides profile measurements, detailed measurements in time and space of water pressure, flow velocities and sediment concentrations were performed in the near near-shore area. It was concluded that a longer wave period leads to a larger dune erosion volume and to a larger landward retreat of the dune face. Tests with double-peaked wave spectra showed that the influence of the spectral shape on dune erosion was best represented by the T_m − 1,0 spectral mean wave period, better than the peak wave period, T_p. The effect of the wave period on dune erosion was implemented in a dune erosion prediction method that estimates erosion volumes during normative storm conditions for the Dutch coast. More details of the measurements and additional analyses of physical processes are described in an accompanying paper by Van Thiel de Vries et al. [Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M., van Gent, M.R.A., Reniers, A.J.H.M. and Walstra, D.J.R., submitted for publication. Analysis of dune erosion processes in large scale flume experiments, In this volume of Coastal Engineering.].     

44 years hindcast of sea level in the Atlantic Coast of Europe

The sea level of Northeast Atlantic Ocean is calculated for the period between 1958 and 2001 using a state-of-the-art barotropic model with a grid size of 10′ × 15′ (long × lat). The model includes astronomic effects, considering seven components of the tide, and the meteorological effects of wind and atmospheric pressure, allowing obtaining the astronomic tide, the atmospheric residuals and the non-linear addition of both components of sea level.     

A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge.