自适应Lp估计及其在SLR数据预处理中的应用

本文简要介绍了自适应Ｌｐ估计的有关理论和求解方法，并对ＳＬＲ数据的测量误差作了统计分析。发现ＳＬＲ数据的测量误差服从ｐ值不定的ｐ范分布。本文ＳＬＲ数据预处理实例表明自适应Ｌｐ估计能给出比ＬＳ估计更为稳健有效的拟合参数。当观测值粗差高达６６％时，自适应Ｌｐ估计仍能给出可靠的拟合参数，效果明显优于传统的ＬＳ估计。     

汕头市历史地震影响烈度的分析

本文将所论地震事件视为随机事件。按全概率定理分析了地震对场地的地震动影响(A)和超越给定值的概率P:对地震烈度序列进行了极值统计分析,得到汕头市地震平均重现期及其对应的烈度值。     

Assessment of potential transport of pollutants into the Barents Sea via sea ice--an observational approach

The present estimates of ice drift in the Arctic include utilization of satellite imagery data (special sensor microwave/imager) and a reconstruction of air pressure for the period 1899-1998. A significant part of the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has its origin in the Kara Sea and melts in the Greenland and the Barents Sea (BS). Consequently there may be a particular risk of pollutants in the Kara Sea entering the food webs of the Greenland and BS. The ice export from the Kara Sea between 1988 and 1994 was about 208,000 km2 (154 km3) per year. The import of ice into the BS was during the same period 161,000 km2 (183 km3) per year while the ice drift through the Fram Strait into the Greenland Sea was 583,000 km2 (1859 km3) per year. Ice which formed adjacent to the Ob and Yenisey rivers in early January, drifted into the BS within two years (with a probability of about 50%.     

The Deccan Trap – Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary connection; new 40Ar/39Ar ages and critical assessment of existing argon data pertinent to this hypothesis

The Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary (KPgB) was dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method herein from the western interior of North America at 65.48 ± 0.12 Ma (1σ), in good agreement with other recent published estimates. For the Deccan Traps, India, new argon ages as well as others available in the literature, are assessed for reliability based on (a) statistical reliability of plateau/isochron sections and (b) freshness of material dated utilizing the alteration index method. From tholeiitic lavas from the Composite Western Ghats Section (CWGS), only six ages are found to be reliable estimates of the time of crystallization. These ages along with the magnetic polarity of the lavas agree with the geomagnetic polarity time scale (GPTS) at ∼67–64 Ma. Alkaline rocks from the Anjar area of Kutch, provide three reliable ages that suggest a hiatus in lava extrusion around KPgB. For the Rajahmundry basalts, the upper flow’s age defines its formation during chron 29n; a single age from the lower reversed polarity flow appears somewhat dichotomous when plotted against the GPTS. The reliable lava ages indicate the most voluminous (reversed polarity) sections of the CWGS were extruded at a time statistically indistinguishable from that of the KPgB. The Deccan Trap – KPgB faunal extinction hypothesis remains plausible, but must compete with the latest report, favoring a very close temporal connection (∼0.03 m.y.) between the Chixculub (Impact) Crater and the KPgB.     

Mapping of groundwater quality in the Turonian aquifer of Oum Er-Rabia Basin, Morocco: a case study

This study takes the groundwater of the Moroccan limestone aquifer of Oum Er-Rabia as an example of statistical and cartographical approaches in water resources management. Statistical analyses based on frequency distribution and PCA methods revealed the homogeneity of waters with the existence of abnormal points and have helped to assess correlations between the studied variables. The mapping approach illustrated that waters are influenced by the lithology of the surrounding rocks and are of Ca–Mg–HCO₃, Ca–Mg–Cl–SO₄, and mixed types according to the Piper classification. The quality of water is of high to medium, north of the basin, but it is of medium to bad, NE and south, due to excessive contents of chloride, sulfate and nitrate. According to the US Salinity Laboratory classification, water used for irrigation in the eastern and the southern parts of the basin should take into consideration the drainage conditions, the nature of plants and the addition of gypsum doses.

南京及周边地区雷达气候学分析

为了研究南京及周边地区暖季（6-9月）对流风暴的活动分布规律,利用2009-2013年6-9月长时间序列的南京多普勒天气雷达数据识别对流回波并格点化,统计并分析了南京及周边地区对流风暴的气候学分布特征,结果表明:（1）在暖季,南京及周边地区对流风暴具有明显的区域分布特征,其中7与8月为对流风暴活动高峰期,对流风暴频数分布大值中心位于南京东部沿江地区;（2）不同尺度和伸展高度对流风暴的分布特征各不相同,较大较深对流的分布大值中心更加明显;（3）对流风暴的垂直结构因月份不同而有所差异,7与8月对流风暴强度最大;（4）不同尺度和伸展高度对流风暴频数存在明显的日变化特征,呈多峰分布,主峰值区位于午后,同样,各月份对流风暴频数的日变化特征也非常明显,呈单峰或者多峰分布。      

地震活动性预测并划分未来地震发生的潜在区域方法研究

采用网格地震方法,选取面积百分比(33%),确定圈闭区域的半径,统计后期地震发生在圈闭区域内的概率。在我国4个不同构造环境和地震活动水平的地区,分别统计了后期地震发生在圈闭区域内的概率。结果表明,4个地区后期地震发生在圈闭区域的概率远远大于面积百分比。说明未来地震是高度地聚集在过去地震发生的区域内,采用地震活动性预测并划分未来地震发生的潜在区域的方法是可行的。     

太阳黑子活动与新疆强震活动的关系

使用1900年以来的太阳黑子数据,统计分析了其与新疆地区MS≥6.6强震的关系。结果显示：新疆地区69%的MS≥6.6和86%的MS≥7的地震,发生在黑子数月均值≤35的时段内。以黑子数月均值≤20和≤35的时段作为MS≥6.6强震的预测指标,报准率分别为71%和64%;以黑子数月均值≤35的时段作为MS≥6.6强震的预测指标,报准率为69%。R值评分检验表明,上述预测指标是有效的。最后使用这些统计关系和指标对新疆未来几年发生强震的可能性作了估计。     

东川播卡金矿品位统计学特征及与矿化的关系

东川播卡金矿,位于金沙江与小江夹持的三角成矿带上,为昆阳群中迄今发现的唯一独立大型金矿。矿区出露中元古界昆阳群浅变质岩系。结合近年来勘探成果,收集矿石品位进行统计学研究,探讨品位与矿化关系。     

Stratigraphic delineation by three-dimensional clustering of piezocone data

Piezocone soundings are a fast and economical approach for geotechnical site characterization, providing three separate and continuous channels of data with depth, including: tip resistance q _T, porewater pressure u ₂ and sleeve friction f _s. Literally hundreds to thousands of data points are collected by a single sounding. Since these readings are functions of both soil type and soil behaviour, they can be used for the delineation of soil stratigraphy.

One way to process large amounts of data involves clustering. Cluster analysis is an efficient statistical way to analyse the stratigraphic vertical profiling of geomaterials and means to detect the inherent similarity between data sets and group them together. Clustering in previous geotechnical research was based on only two channels of piezocone data (q _T and u₂). The method works well for soils that are under the groundwater table and was applied to soundings in clay deposits.

In the present paper, a new cluster analysis approach is developed based on all three channels of data, thus extending the method to soils above the water table and applicable to sands, silts, and clays. Example soil profiles derived by three-channel cluster analysis are presented herein and compared with conventional soil boring and sampling data.