近40年中美地缘政治关系波动及背景解析

基于GDELT数据利用概率分析和自适应分形分析方法,从合作与冲突的角度分析1979年以来历届美国总统任期内中美态度的差异以及中美态度的持久性。结果分析表明：① 中美地缘政治关系经历3个时期,分别是冷战期、转变期和经贸合作期。这3个时期的特征是中美关系的战略基础历经从联合抗苏到经贸关系转变;② 美国对华的冲突态度在老布什和克林顿时期发展和提高,在小布什时期和奥巴马前期有所缓和,但是在奥巴马后期趋于严重。③ 美国对华整体态度持续性存在约4 a时间尺度,而且主要受冲突态度的影响。在当前特朗普政府时期,中美地缘政治关系的政治和经济要素已经发生重大转变,建议中美关系政策制定者和研究者要重视这种转变,寻求新思维和新途径应对进入新阶段的中美关系。     

地动噪声RMS值计算方法的适用性及误差概率分析

对比两种计算RMS值的方法,结合误差概率统计给出结果的误差概率分布。在使用有限脉冲响应（FIR）带通滤波器进行滤波并计算RMS值的过程中,滤波器窗口函数和阶数是影响计算结果误差的主要因素,其中阶数的作用更大。通过计算功率谱密度（PSD）反算RMS值的误差主要受pwelch函数的窗口函数类型、窗口长度及重叠率等参数影响,其中窗口长度作用更大。从同等误差水平的概率分布看,在合理设置参数的前提下,使用PSD反算RMS值的方法更优。     

Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming

This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993–2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret's size in the period from the 1950 s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal(u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions – rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind directionfrom west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season.     

A simple and direct method to analyse the influences of sampling fractions on modelling intra-city human mobility

Sampling fraction is crucial to sampling-related studies and applications, especially in the big data era when most data are neither originally designed nor controllable in the data collection process. A common concern among researchers is ‘what’s the modelling accuracy when using a sample?’. Taking intra-city human mobility as the study objective, this study utilizes a simple and direct method to analyse the influences of various sampling fractions on modelling accuracy. Five common intra-city human mobility indicators (travel distance, travel time, travel frequency, radius of gyration and movement entropy) are evaluated considering mean value, median and probability distribution. Experimental results demonstrate that the representativeness of each considered indicator converges to 1 in its own unique rate and variances. The minimum required sampling fractions to satisfy specific accuracies differ for various indicators and evaluation measures. To further investigate how related factors influence the modelling accuracy of sampling fractions, additional experiments are conducted considering multiple sampling methods, study scopes, and data sources. Several interesting general findings are observed. This study provides a reference for other sampling-based applications.     

利用端点延拓提高LS + NN模型的UT1-UTC预报精度

现有UT1-UTC预报模式在进行周期项与残差项拟合分离时,通常没有考虑最小二乘拟合序列的端部效应,预报精度难以取得较大提高。针对最小二乘拟合存在的端部效应,首先采用灰色模型在UT1-UTC序列的两端进行数据延拓,形成一个新序列,然后对新序列进行最小二乘拟合,最后再联合最小二乘和神经网络(LS+NN)模型对UT1-UTC原始序列进行外推。结果表明,对UT1-UTC序列进行端点数据延拓再进行最小二乘拟合,能够有效地改善最小二乘拟合序列的端部效应;相对于常规LS+NN模型,端部效应改善的LS+NN模型的UT1-UTC预报精度有一定提高,尤其对中长期预报精度提高更为明显。     

南海北部海面风速概率分布特征

利用南海北部的浮标、石油平台观测的海面风资料,分析了0~200 km范围内,不同离岸距离站点的风速的概率分布特征。观测结果指出,各站平均风速一般最大值出现在冬季,最小值出现在夏季,具有明显的季节变化特征,并且平均风速随着离岸距离的增大也逐渐增大。对于离岸距离较近的区域（100 km以内）,海面风基本符合双参数的Weibull分布,但对于100 km以外的海面风速概率分布与Weibull分布存在明显差异,随着离岸距离的增大,平均风速和风速标准偏差也相应增大。风速平均值与风速标准偏差的比值较小时,Weibull分布的偏斜度基本为正值,当比值较大时偏斜度转为负值。随着离岸距离的增大,出现与Weibull分布不一致的情况越来越多,且与对应的Weibull分布相比,其偏斜度越小,风速概率分布越不能用Weibull分布进行较好拟合。     

基于模糊数学和改进层次分析法的海水入侵程度评价

基于模糊数学基本思想,将海水入侵程度作为评价对象,选择Cl–、Br–、SO42–、K+、SAR等5项能敏感反映海水入侵过程的水化学指标作为评价指标,通过采用改进层次分析法计算各指标权重和运用模糊数学进行综合评价,构建海水入侵程度综合评价的数学模型。以山东省招远市作为研究区,运用评价模型对该地区海水入侵程度进行评判,评价结果较单一指标评价法更加合理准确,具有较好的实用性,可为当地海水入侵防控提供科学依据。研究表明,该模型是海水入侵程度评价的一种简易高效、科学合理的方法,可推广应用。     

河北怀来4井水汞异常及映震能力分析

在严格确定异常指标的基础上,分析了河北怀来４井水汞异常与地震的对应关系及水汞异常与发震时间的关系,得出怀来４井的映震能力强（有震概率８１％）、异常开始至发震的时间８０％在５０ｄ之内的结论。并指出了汞异常与地震关系的复杂性     

对哈萨克斯坦,吉尔吉斯斯坦两国地下流体资料的初步分析

依据来自哈萨克斯坦,吉尔吉斯斯坦两国地下流体的交换资料,分析了它们对天山及其邻区强震的映震特征,认为：（１）水化学异常时间与水动态异常的时间不同;（２）气体,离子,水动态异常形态多样;（３）水化学正负正常不确定;（４）异常幅度变化复杂;（５）强震远场效应明显;（６）震后效应显著并具有不可逆性。     

Joint Distribution of Wave Heights and Wavelengths and Distribution of Wave Steepness

-A joint probability density is derived for wavelengths and wave heights.It is asymmetric anddepends only on the spectral bandwidthεdefined by Cartwright and Longuet-Higgins(1956).After that atheoretical probability density for wave steepness is obtained.It tends to Rayleigh distribution asε→0.Acomparison between theorethal steepness distribution and laboratory experiment result shows good agree-ment.