近20年华北地电阻率异常空间演化及强震短期前兆判别标志研究

开展了华北地电阻率异常参数提取的研究，以1980—2001年的异常参数为输入进行了全时空扫描，并对其动态图像演化做全面分析，由此提取出华北地区5级以上地震的地电阻率短期前兆的判别标志。为了进行初步检验，本文依上述判别标志对华北近年地电阻率动态图像做了对比分析。     

Histogram and variogram inference in the multigaussian model

Several iterative algorithms are proposed to improve the histogram and variogram inference in the framework of the multigaussian model. The starting point is the variogram obtained after a traditional normal score transform. The subsequent step consists in simulating many sets of gaussian values with this variogram at the data locations, so that the ranking of the original values is honored. The expected gaussian transformation and the expected variogram are computed by an averaging operation over the simulated datasets. The variogram model is then updated and the procedure is repeated until convergence. Such an iterative algorithm can adapt to the case of tied data and despike the histogram. Two additional issues are also examined, referred to the modeling of the empirical transformation function and to the optimal pair weighting when computing the sample variogram.     

Interevent Time Distribution in Seismicity: A Theoretical Approach

This paper presents an analysis of the distribution of the time τ between two consecutive events in a stationary point process. The study is motivated by the discovery of unified scaling laws for τ for the case of seismic events. We demonstrate that these laws cannot exist simultaneously in a seismogenic area. Under very natural assumptions we show that if, after rescaling to ensure Eτ =1, the interevent time has a universal distribution F, then F must be exponential. In other words, Corral’s unified scaling law cannot exist in the whole range of time. In the framework of a general cluster model we discuss the parameterization of an empirical unified law and the physical meaning of the parameters involved. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain)

In active landslides, the prediction of acceleration of movement is a crucial issue for the design and performance of warning systems. The landslide of Vallcebre in the Eastern Pyreenes, Spain, has been monitored since 1996 and data on rainfall, groundwater levels and ground displacements are measured on a regular basis. Displacements observed in borehole wire extensometers have shown an immediate response of the landslide to rainfall episodes. This rapid response is likely due to the presence of preferential drainage ways. The occurrence of nearly constant rates of displacement in coincidence with steady groundwater levels suggests the presence of viscous forces developed during the movement. An attempt to predict both landslide displacements and velocities was performed at Vallcebre by solving the momentum equation in which a viscous term (Bingham and power law) was added. Results show that, using similar rheological parameters for the entire landslide, computed displacements reproduce quite accurately the displacements observed at three selected wire extensometers. These results indicate that prediction of displacements from groundwater level changes is feasible.     

The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity

Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m³ of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area.     

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地理信息工程专业“普通地图编制课程设计”教学探讨

普通地图编制课程设计是地图学与地理信息工程专业重要的一门实践课程。笔者在分析了当前测绘地理信息技术发展的基础上,对课程教学从内容设计到教学方法等方面进行了探讨。     

Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.     

相对湿度和PM2.5浓度对大气能见度的影响研究:基于小时资料的多站对比分析

为了全面分析浙江省不同区域能见度变化基本特征及影响机理,基于杭州、宁波、温州3个国家基本气象站2013-2014年逐时能见度观测资料,比较分析了3市能见度变化的基本特征。发现3市不同等级能见度出现频率基本一致,随着能见度等级的提高,出现频率逐渐降低;从能见度的日变化来看,07时（北京时）前后最低,之后缓慢上升,14-15时达到最高,随后逐渐下降;全年有两个能见度较低时段,分别出现在12月-次年2月和5-6月;总体而言,宁波能见度最优,杭州和温州大体相当。功率谱分析结果表明,3市能见度均有显著的日周期,高频波段呈现出多个显著谱峰,低频波段存在若干显著谱峰。进一步开展机理分析,发现相对湿度和PM_2.5浓度是调制大气能见度的关键因子,相对湿度增大、PM_2.5浓度升高导致能见度降低。在同一相对湿度等级下,初始阶段能见度随PM_2.5浓度的升高迅速降低,到达“拐点”之后降低速率趋于缓慢。在同一PM_2.5浓度水平下,相对湿度越大,能见度越低,说明水汽对能见度也有重要影响。基于相对湿度和PM_2.5浓度两个因子,采用非线性拟合方案构建了大气能见度定量统计模型,总体而言模型拟合效果较好。最后针对研究中存在的不足和未来值得进一步发掘的科学问题进行了讨论。     

MJO prediction skill,predictability, and teleconnection impacts in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model

This study evaluates performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC_AGCM2.2). By using the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, it is shown that the MJO prediction skill of BCC_AGCM2.2 extends to about 16–17 days before the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient drops to 0.5 and the root-mean-square error increases to the level of the climatological prediction. The prediction skill showed a seasonal dependence, with the highest skill occurring in boreal autumn, and a phase dependence with higher skill for predictions initiated from phases 2–4. The results of the MJO predictability analysis showed that the upper bounds of the prediction skill can be extended to 26 days by using a single-member estimate, and to 42 days by using the ensemble-mean estimate, which also exhibited an initial amplitude and phase dependence. The observed relationship between the MJO and the North Atlantic Oscillation was accurately reproduced by BCC_AGCM2.2 for most initial phases of the MJO, accompanied with the Rossby wave trains in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics driven by MJO convection forcing. Overall, BCC_AGCM2.2 displayed a significant ability to predict the MJO and its teleconnections without interacting with the ocean, which provided a useful tool for fully extracting the predictability source of subseasonal prediction.