1—3年强震危险区预测的指标体系

强震危险区预测是当前地震预报中的重要课题之一。笔者以预警活断层、预警活断层分段研究解决断层活动的时间和空间尺度为主线，配合地震活动动态分析、地震波介质特征早期信息、近场趋势性前兆异常和危险性概率预测，确定了判别几年尺度强震危险区的指标。在“八五”地震科技课题研究过程中，圈这了范围不超过１００００ｋｍ＾２的５个强震危险区，已成功地对１９９３年１０月２日若羌６．６级地震、１９９５年５月２日乌苏５．８级     

一个有限区域中尺度模式的设计及预报试验

以一个６层原始方程模式的基本动力学框架为基础，设计了一个对物理过程考虑得较全面的中尺度原始方程模式。该模式采用（ｘ，ｙ，σ）坐标系；大气上界取为１０ｈＰａ，提供多种水平边界条件；水平和垂直分辨率均可调；降水方案包括大尺度降水和深厚积云对流降水；地面温度的计算采用地面热量收支方程；考虑了地气和海气交换作用；垂直交换系数的计算采用Ｌｉｏｕｉｓ格式；水平扩散采用二阶形式和四阶形式相结合的方案，扩散系数是网格点位置和风场的函数；积分方案采用经济的中央差格式。在水平格距取８０ｋｍ，垂直方向不等距地分为１６层的分辨率条件下，利用该模式进行逐个个例预报试验。结果表明，模式计算稳定，能较好地报出主要的天气形势，预报的降水也较接近实际。文中给出了一些检验指标的统计结果。还在预报能力及模式特性方面与原６层模式进行了对比。     

金州短水准观测和资料分析中的若干重要问题

对金州短水准观测和资料分析中常易引起争议或新出现的若干重要问题进行论论，其结果对跨断层形变测量具有普遍意义。     

DOES WIND STRESS DEPEND ON SEA-STATE OR NOT? – A STATISTICAL ERROR ANALYSIS OF HEXMAX DATA

There have been several claims, either explicit or by implication, either based on experimental evidence or on theoretical reasoning, that the wind stress is modified by the stage of development of the wind sea. However, the overall evidence is weak, because theories are still incomplete and because it is questionable whether the sea-state effect, which is of the order of 10%, can be separated from experimental noise, which is of the order of 20%. In this paper a rigorous statistical analysis of HEXMAX data is pursued in order to establish the significance of sea-state effects. It appears that the enhanced drag, especially at high winds, which has already been established by previous analyses, cannot be attributed to the effect of young waves. The analysis provides no clues for the actual mechanism, which could be related to breaking or shoaling waves. As the effect of sea-state on wind stress is much smaller than the experimental noise level, it is hard to detect. Nevertheless, HEXMAX seems to contain a wave effect that is at the edge of statistical significance. It is, however, not the wave age itself that influences the drag, but a parameter involving wave height.Because the HEXMAX evidence is only indicative, we conclude that the issue set out in this paper cannot be answered on the basis of the HEXMAX data alone. It is recommended that error analyses are also carried out for other relevant observational data sets and that new measurements with suppressed noise will be taken up.     

腾格里沙漠东南缘降尘粒度特征和沉积速率

从多年降尘实测资料入手，分析了粉尘粒度特征、沉积速率和时变过程。提出了气象要素相关估测模型．确定０．２５ｍｍ为本区粉尘沉积粒径上限。周围沙漠是粉尘沉积细砂部分的尘源，粉砂和粘土部分沉积来自一个较大的时空范围，二者几乎各占降尘量的１／２。研究区年平均粉尘沉积速率４３５８ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，每年５月的季风转期具有年内最大沉积速率。     

矿产资源开发环境影响评价的指标体系及方法

通过对矿产资源开发环境影响因素的系统分析，建立了环境影响评价的指标体系，它包括自然环境和社会经济环境两大指标体系；简评了矿产资源开发的环境影响评价方法；提出了建立矿产资源开发环境影响评价信息系统的设想，并简要介绍了该信息系统的组成、主要功能及值得重视研究的几个问题。     

无锡、常州郊区发生地裂缝

无锡、常州郊区发生地裂缝近年来，无锡石塘湾西蔡一秦村～带、常州横林分别出现了地裂缝，其中以钱桥毛村园最为严重，该处地裂缝于１９９１年夏初步形成，随后不断扩大，目前已具一定规模，长约７００ｍ，总体宽约６０ｍ，呈近东西向分布，并造成附近数十间楼房产生大量...     

A physical statistical approach to erosion

Erosion is a complex process consisting of many components such as surface runoff, impact of raindrops, wind forces, soil and rock mechanics, etc. Trying to integrate all these processes into a physical model seems to be hopeless. In order to understand the variety of natural shapes and patterns produced by erosion we present an integrated statistical approach. Our model is based on simple physical constraints for the separation of amalgamated particles (abrasion) and for the movement of loose particles (denudation) and on the laws of statistics. After some simplifications, we obtain a nonlinear system of partial differential equations which is solved using finite volume techniques. The model is suitable for the formation of different types of rill systems and the episodic behaviour of erosion processes, a kind of self-organized criticality. Besides effects of inhomogeneities, e.g. the formation of terraces can be investigated.     

古潜山火成岩裂缝带划分与孔隙度计算

针对火成岩岩性成分复杂，常规测井难以正确划分岩性，严重阻碍了储层参数的定量计算。本文提出模糊聚类划分岩性，采用综合概率法与混合体积模型计算裂缝孔隙度、有效孔隙度等参数。其测井解释结果与井壁取心和地质描述资料对照，完全吻合。     

地球物理反问题中的随机反演理论

本文从最大后验概率密度观点出发，在数据噪音向量和待求模型向量为具有零均值的独立高斯随机过程的假设前提下，建立起了随机反演的非线性系统方程；给出了模型方差估计的函数表达式，并在文章最后，证明了反演解的稀疏性，即解释了随机反演的输出解的高分辨率特征。文章在最小二乘反演方法的基础上，发展并完善了随机反演方法的理论基础；揭示了随机反演方法与最小二乘反演方法之间的本质区别；阐述了随机反演方法的优越性，并指出了其广阔的应用前景。