Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for spatially correlated data

The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test is a convenient method for investigating whether two underlying univariate probability distributions can be regarded as undistinguishable from each other or whether an underlying probability distribution differs from a hypothesized distribution. Application of the test requires that the sample be unbiased and the outcomes be independent and identically distributed, conditions that are violated in several degrees by spatially continuous attributes, such as topographical elevation. A generalized form of the bootstrap method is used here for the purpose of modeling the distribution of the statistic D of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The innovation is in the resampling, which in the traditional formulation of bootstrap is done by drawing from the empirical sample with replacement presuming independence. The generalization consists of preparing resamplings with the same spatial correlation as the empirical sample. This is accomplished by reading the value of unconditional stochastic realizations at the sampling locations, realizations that are generated by simulated annealing. The new approach was tested by two empirical samples taken from an exhaustive sample closely following a lognormal distribution. One sample was a regular, unbiased sample while the other one was a clustered, preferential sample that had to be preprocessed. Our results show that the p-value for the spatially correlated case is always larger that the p-value of the statistic in the absence of spatial correlation, which is in agreement with the fact that the information content of an uncorrelated sample is larger than the one for a spatially correlated sample of the same size.     

溧阳火山岩盆地TM遥感图像线性构造密度分析

利用１：１０万溧阳火山岩盆地ＴＭ图像线性影像解译图上线性影像的长度、方位、频度及构造可信度为基本数据,通过作线性影像方位－频度直方图、线性构造等密度图等统计分析,研究区内线性构造的优势方位、异常带的空间展布规律及各向异性,为研究区域构造格局、构造序次及其控矿关系提供依据。     

辽宁地区夏季高温极值预测模型

利用1957-2006年辽宁地区夏季23站极端最高气温资料和国家气候中心气候监测室的74项环流特征量资料,应用EOF方法对高温极值样本进行分解,研究辽宁极端高温的时空分布规律。结果表明：第一特征向量表现为区域整体一致的特征,中心区位于辽西北、辽北,第二、三特征向量空间分布表现为东西部反位相和南北反位相的特征。普查了前3个时间系数与前期环流指数的相关关系,认为前3个时间系数的显著影响因子是不同的。采用CSC准则确定最优预测因子,分别建立各时间系数的回归统计模型,并对高温极值历史拟合序列进行回报检验和预测检验。回报结果表明,各站的历史拟合率都保持在一定水平,但拟合率在辽西地区较差。各年的历史拟合率极不均衡,多数年份较为稳定,但个别年份拟合率较低。未来3 a试验性预测效果逐年下降,模型对未来1 a预测能力较好,可以作为业务预测的参考。     

复杂地电结构条件下统计学建模法电阻率测深二维反演

为了提高复杂地层结构条件下,以统计学建模方法为基础的电阻率测深二维反演的准确性,本文改进了统计学建模的技术细节,建立统计学特征值与地质体空间位置、地层层参数的连接关系,并从建模环节开始加入先验信息.以常见的断裂模型为例,研究了用统计学判断地层结构建立初始模型、用加权统计的水平梯度确定断裂位置及用分段统计确定局部层参数,并在初始模型中加入先验信息.理论模型试算和对已知断裂上的实测高密度数据的反演表明,在复杂地层结构条件下,统计学建模方法可以建立较贴近实际的初始模型,通过反演获得清晰明确的结果.     

合肥市主要灾害性天气特征分析

利用1953—2008年合肥国家基本气象站地面观测资料,分析了合肥城市暴雨、大雾、雷电、冰雪冻害、大风、高温6类主要城市灾害性天气的统计特征,并利用线性倾向估计法对其进行了趋势分析。结果表明：合肥市大雾天气呈增加趋势,20世纪90年代以后增加更为明显;暴雨发生日数基本维持不变,2000年以后大暴雨发生概率增大;大风、雷电、高温的年发生日数呈现减少趋势;降雪日数减少,年极端最低气温49.1％出现在雪后第1 d或第2 d。     

A Comparative Research on Climatic Characteristics of Jianghuai Cyclones in Rainfall Season between Warming and Cooling Stages

By EOF, Power spectrum and nonlinear mapping methods, the temperature time series of May to July in Jianghuai river basins from 1948-2014 (67 years) were objectively divided into several climate stages. The time series were divided into three climate stages with similar lengths: the stage with its air temperature trend going downwards stage (1948-1970); the stage with its air temperature trend going upwards (1971-1994) and the stage with its air temperature trend going gentle upwards (1995-2014). Their climate characteristics can be quantified by a special climate index. Then, the statistic characteristics of Jianghuai cyclones in the three climate stages were compared with the cooling or warming trends. The results showed that characteristic evolutions of the frequency of yearly average of Jianhuai cyclones, the cyclones with their life cycles in the area longer than 48h, the cyclones with three types of thickness, shallow and bottom shapes classified according to the cyclone height, the cyclones with three kinds of zonal, meridional, and circular trajectory, responded to the temperature changing trends in the three climate stages. The cooling trends of the stage temperature restrained the activity of Jianghuai cyclones, and the warming trends of the stage temperature promoted the cyclone’s development, maintaining, activity, and also led cyclone moving towards to north further. The composite analysis of cyclone structures showed that the evolution characteristics in the center intensity, temperature grads, the maxima velocity of jet of the cyclones, and the intensity, length and position of the vapor flux passage of the Jianghuai cyclones, also the intensity, thickness, the positions of the warm and cold air masses within the cyclones, all responded to the trend change of stage temperature including cooling, warming and gentle warming. The results show clearly that temperature cooling reduces the intensity of cyclone structures and restrains the activity of cyclones in the temperatures trend down stage. The temperature warming enhances the stable development and strengthening of cyclone structure,and maintains the activity of cyclones in the temperature warming stages.     

Geochemical and statistical analysis of trace metals in atmospheric particulates in Wuhan, central China

The geochemical characteristics of trace metals (As, Cr, Co, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn) in PM10 in Wuhan, the biggest metropolitan in central China, as well as their sources and contributions were analyzed. As PM10 has been the principal contaminant of air in Wuhan for years, concentrations of trace metals were measured in PM10 using high-volume samplers at one urban (Hankou) and one industrial (Changqian) site in Wuhan between September 2003 and September 2004. Based on the results, PM10 in Wuhan is characterized by relatively high levels of As, Cd, Mn, Pb and Zn compared with other Asian cities. The time-series of these elements indicated that As, Cu and Zn at both sites have similar trends, whereas Pb levels showed different patterns due to different emission sources. Factor analysis was applied to the datasets focusing on the apportionment of the mass of selected trace metals. Results indicate that Pb, Cd and As have a common source (smelting) at both sites, whereas the sources of Ni vary from coal combustion and steel in Changqian to mineral and traffic in Hankou.