The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.     

Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties

Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers’ and communal responses to climate change.     

青藏高原腹地现今地应力测量与应力状态研究

青藏高原腹地现今构造活动强烈，为了解强烈构造活动下的应力背景，我们在五道梁、风火山、雁石坪和安多不同构造部位的四个测点采用压磁应力解除法进行了现场应力实测工作，测量深度12～20m.测量结果表明, 最大主应力方向总体为北东向，与地质、地震以及大地测量等方面的研究成果基本吻合；最大主应力量值为36～68MPa（安多测点除外），与其他地区测量结果相比，属于中等偏高；安多测点最大主应力方向为北西西向，最大主应力量值为81MPa，与其他测点有较大差别，反映了板块缝合带附近现今应力状态的复杂性.     

青藏高原北缘哈拉湖近800年来 湖泊沉积及其环境意义*

文章以青藏高原北缘高山祁连山湖泊——哈拉湖作为研究对象,利用放射性核素²¹⁰ Pb和¹³⁷ Cs测年资料,通过对此高海拔湖泊沉积碳酸盐氧碳同位素、碳酸盐含量、总有机碳含量、磁化率等环境代用指标的分析,揭示了这一地区近800年来的气候环境变化过程。分析表明哈拉湖记录的气候环境变化经历了3个阶段:1206~1700A.D.环境较为寒冷、湿润,并有持续变湿的趋势;1700~1920A.D.环境由冷湿的状况趋向温暖干旱,1771年之后,环境保持相对稳定;1920~2002A.D.是自1206年以来最为温暖干旱的阶段。     

Modelling the sustainability and productivity of pastoral systems in the communal areas of Namaqualand

We investigated the effects of rainfall and the number of animals on changes in vegetation and on the output of milk and meat from the communal areas of Namaqualand. Previously published short- and long-term models link processes that range from the levels of tissue (in, for example, the mammary gland), to the milk yields of individual animals, to the growth and survival of their young and to long-term changes in plant species populations at the ecosystem level. These models have been used to study how different factors and management strategies affect livestock productivity and vegetation composition on a 20,000 ha rangeland in Namaqualand. First, the inter-relations between rainfall, stocking rate and productivity were studied using the short-term model. This model shows that in addition to total rainfall and stocking rate, the timing of rainfall within a year also influences doe live weight and survival to the end of the year. When the long-term model is run, using recorded rainfall, predictions of small stock numbers agree closely with livestock data recorded over the same 30-year period. One thousand replicates of 100-year runs of the long-term model were then used to study the probable impact of different upper limits to stock numbers on animal performance. Off take (sales and slaughterings) are maximal when stock numbers are limited to 2000 adults. Animal numbers increase marginally as the limit is increased above this level, but the variability between years in numbers increases. Secondly, the long-term model was used to study the long-term effects of the stocking rate strategies on rangeland condition. The model predicts that although these effects are variable, when moderately degraded range is stocked with an upper limit at the recommended level it is unable to recover to less degraded states over 100 years. Thirdly, the model was used to examine the effects of reduction in stock numbers and slaughtering of kids in a drought year on goat numbers during the subsequent 5 years. Finally, the model predicts that a 10% reduction in mean annual rainfall will lead to a 35% reduction in animal numbers over 200 years.     

Hillslope gullying in the Solway Firth — Morecambe Bay region, Great Britain: Responses to human impact and/or climatic deterioration?

In the Solway Firth — Morecambe Bay region of Great Britain there is evidence for heightened hillslope instability during the late Holocene (after 3000 cal. BP). Little or no hillslope geomorphic activity has been identified occurring during the early Holocene, but there is abundant evidence for late Holocene hillslope erosion (gullying) and associated alluvial fan and valley floor deposition. Interpretation of the regional radiocarbon chronology available from organic matter buried beneath alluvial fan units suggests much of this geomorphic activity can be attributed to four phases of more extensive gullying identified after 2500–2200, 1300–1000, 1000–800 and 500 cal. BP. Both climate and human impact models can be evoked to explain the crossing of geomorphic thresholds: and palaeoecological data on climatic change (bog surface wetness) and human impact (pollen), together with archaeological and documentary evidence of landscape history, provide a context for addressing the causes of late Holocene geomorphic instability. High magnitude storm events are the primary agent responsible for gully incision, but neither such events nor cooler/wetter climatic episodes appear to have produced gully systems in the region before 3000 cal. BP. Increased gullying after 2500–2200 cal. BP coincides with population expansion during Iron Age and Romano-British times. The widespread and extensive gullying after 1300–1000 cal. BP and after 1000–800 cal. BP coincides with periods of population expansion and a growing rural economy identified during Norse times, 9–10th centuries AD, and during the Medieval Period, 12–13th centuries AD. These periods were separated by a downturn associated with the ‘harrying of the north’ AD 1069 to 1070. The gullying episode after 500 cal. BP also coincides with increased anthropogenic pressure on the uplands, with population growth and agricultural expansion after AD 1500 following 150 years of malaise caused by livestock and human (the Black Death) plagues, poor harvests and conflicts on the Scottish/English border. The increased susceptibility to erosion of gullies is a response to increased anthropogenic pressure on upland hillslopes during the late Holocene, and the role of this pressure appears crucial in priming hillslopes before subsequent major storm events. In particular, the cycles of expansion and contraction in both population and agriculture appear to have affected the susceptibility of the upland landscape to erosion, and the hillslope gullying record in the region, therefore, contributes to understanding of the timing and spatial pattern of human exploitation of the upland landscape.     

Middle-Late Pleistocene polycyclic evolution of a stable coastal area (southern Apulia, Italy)

The Otranto–Leuca coastal tract is marked by the presence of numerous sea caves placed close to present sea level. They are located generally at the back of a shore platform covered by a sequence of breccia deposits, marine sediments and speleothems. At Grotta di Masseria dell'Orte, marine cemented sands rest on a narrow shore platform at about 6.2 m above mean sea level and are covered by speleothems older than 185 ka. At Grotta del Diavolo, which is mostly filled by breccia deposits, three beach levels have been detected at about 3.0, 3.5 and 5.9 m above msl. They are either covered by or overlie speleothems that yield an U/Th age of 340, 78 ka and between 170.3 and 146.5, respectively. Geomorphological evidence and radiometric ages indicate that the area after a period of uplift has been tectonically stable since the last part of the Middle Pleistocene so that marine landforms close to the present shoreline underwent a polycyclic evolution. The sedimentary fills of sea caves formed during Middle-Late Pleistocene glacial stages, when arid or semiarid conditions promoted the removal of regolith and the development of thick breccia deposits. During Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 9.3, 5.5 and 5.1, cave sediments were partially eroded whereas beach layers and related speleothems developed. These are, in fact, the only marine isotope stages marked by a sea level position which in this Mediterranean region was either close to, or slightly higher than, the present one.     

Soil erosion along a long slope in the gentle hilly areas of black soil region in Northeast China

Characteristics of soil erosion change along a long slope in the gentle hilly areas in black soil region in Northeast China are discussed. A simplified slope model based on seg-ments was used to analyze the runoff data and soil erosion data observed between 2003 and 2004 over 10 field plots with different slope length in Heshan Farm, Heilongjiang Province. We found that soil erosion rate over long slopes in the black soil region changed alternatively along the slope and creates alternative zones of intensive erosion and week erosion.The exact place of each zone is different for different rainfall conditions. In a year with less and mild precipitation, rill cannot happen within the top 50 m, while in a year with large and inten-sive precipitation, rill can be formed starting even at 15 m from the top of the slope.     

Statistical analysis of the temporal and spatial controls on tidal signal preservation in late-Holocene tidal rhythmites, Romney Marsh, Southeast England

A hierarchical series of tidal periodicities are preserved within laminated tidal flat deposits at the barrier/back-barrier interface of Romney Marsh and the Dungeness Foreland in southeast England. The sedimentary record of the tidal signature, extracted from variations in sand layer thickness, was found to be severely truncated with neap-spring periods typically represented by five or less sand layers and possibly only alternate neap-spring periods present. Despite the low number of sand layers deposited in these higher frequency tidal cycles, semi-annual periods are clearly preserved but tend to contain less than the expected 6 months of sedimentation. Annual accumulation rates of around 0.2–0.3 m/year are indicated. Local emplacement of storm beaches is considered to have created the protected conditions suitable for tidal rhythmite preservation. Ongoing foreland progradation and infilling eventually restricted tidal inundation to the point where distinct sand laminae were no longer deposited. Here, in contrast with other systems, accommodation space was not limiting and tidal flat elevation is reflected as a more subtle control on spatial changes in the resolution of the tidal signal.     

A numerically calibrated reference level (MP28) for the terrestrial mammal-based biozonation of the European Upper Oligocene

The fauna of the Enspel (Westerwald) and the neighbouring Kärlich (Neuwied basin) fossil deposits correspond to the Upper Oligocene Mammal Paleogene (MP) reference level 28 and 28–30, respectively. Basaltic flows and a trachyte tuff terminating and predating the fossil deposit sedimentation allow to numerically calibrate the MP reference levels by radioisotope dating. Laser fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step heating on volcanic feldspars yield a time interval of 24.9–24.5 Ma for reference level MP28 at Enspel and a maximum age of 25.5 Ma for the time interval MP28–MP30 at Kärlich. Interpolation between the time intervals determined for the Enspel reference level MP28 and the age of the global Oligocene/Miocene boundary of 24.0 ± 0.1 Ma taken from literature results in time intervals of 24.5–24.2 Ma and 24.2–23.9 Ma for the younger reference levels MP29 and MP30, respectively. These intervals of ≤ 0.4 m.y. for MP reference levels of the latest Oligocene are short relative to older Oligocene MP reference levels 21–27 between 34 and 25 Ma. Since subdivision into MP reference levels essentially is based on assemblages of mammal taxa and on evolutionary changes in tooth morphology of mammals short MP time intervals during the latest Oligocene indicate a rapid evolutionary change relative to the early Oligocene.