黄河源区草地退化对局地气候环境影响的数值模拟

土地覆盖变化会影响到近地层各气象要素发生不同程度的变化.利用中尺度数值模式MM5,设计了一个控制试验和一个敏感性试验.通过对2003年7月一个月的积分,模拟了黄河源区草原退化对局地气候环境的影响.结果表明,黄河源区草原退化导致该地区2 m高度气温及地表温度明显升高;空气湿度及土壤湿度不同程度减小;草原退化后降水的减小影响到径流减小;草原退化后还引起退化区感热通量增加,潜热通量减小,有效通量(感热通量+潜热通量)减小.与草地农牧化相比,草原退化对气候环境的影响程度更强.     

近30年我国高空风速变化趋势分析

1980-2006年间采用全国119个探空站14个等压面的月平均风速资料,分析了我国高空对流层和平流层下层风速变化的时间和空间特征,并和同期地面风速变化进行了对比.结果表明,我国近27年对流层中下层和对流层上层风速呈下降趋势,年平均风速线性变化速率分别为-0.10 m·s-1·(10a)-1和-0.17 m·s-1·(10a)-1,均未通过0.05显著性水平检验;平流层下层全国年平均风速呈上升趋势,上升速率为0.24 m·s-1·(10a)-1,亦未通过O.05显著性水平检验.同期全国地面风速则呈现更显著的降低趋势,年平均风速线性变化速率为-0.16 m·s-1·(10a)-1,通过了0.05显著性水平检验.我国地面气象站记录的平均风速减弱可能受到大尺度大气环流变化的影响,更可能与台站附近观测环境变化和城市化等人为因素影响有密切关系.     

An Orbital Period Study of the Contact Binary CK Bootis

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Snow cover monitoring in the Northern Patagonia Icefield using MODIS satellite images (2000–2006)

The snow cover of the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI) was monitored after applying the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and the Red/NIR band ratio to 134 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images captured between 2000 and 2006. The final results show that the snow cover extent of the NPI fluctuates a lot in winter, in addition to its seasonal behaviour. The minimum snow cover extent of the period (3600 km²) was observed in March 2000 and the maximum (11,623 km²) in August 2001. We found that temperature accounts for approximately 76% of the variation of the snow cover extent over the entire icefield. We also show two different regimes of winter snow cover fluctuations corresponding to the eastern and the western sides of the icefield. The seasonality of the snow cover on the western side was determined by temperature rather than precipitation, while on the east side the seasonality of the snow cover was influenced by the seasonal behaviour of both temperature and precipitation. This difference can be explained by the two distinct climates: coastal and continental. The fluctuations in the winter snow cover extent were more pronounced and less controlled by temperature on the western side than on the eastern side of the icefield. Snow cover extent was correlated with temperature R² = 0.75 and R² = 0.74 for the western and eastern sides, respectively. Since limited meteorological data are available in this region, our investigation confirmed that the change in snow cover is an interesting climatic indicator over the NPI providing important insights in mass balance comprehension. Since snow and ice were distinguished snow cover fluctuations can be associated to fluctuations in the snow accumulation area of the NPI. In addition, days with minimum snow covers of summer season can be associated to the period in which Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) is the highest.     

Low post-Cenomanian denudation depths across the Brazilian Northeast: Implications for long-term landscape evolution at a transform continental margin

The Brazilian Northeast affords good opportunities for obtaining reliable timings and rates of landscape evolution based on stratigraphic correlations across a vast region. The landscape formed in the context of an episodically fluctuating but continuously falling base level since the Cenomanian. After formation of the transform passive margin in Aptian times, landscape development was further driven by a swell-like uplift with its crest situated  300 km from the coastline. The seaward flank of this swell or broad monocline between the interior Araripe and coastal Potiguar basins was eroded, and currently forms a deeply embayed plain bordered by a semi-circular, north-facing erosional escarpment. The post-Cenomanian uplift caused an inversion of the Cretaceous basins and generated a landscape in which the most elevated landforms correspond either to resistant Mesozoic sedimentary caprock, or to eroded stumps of syn-rift Cretaceous footwall uplands. Denudation in the last 90 My never exceeded mean rates of 10 m·My^− 1 and exhumed a number of Cretaceous stratigraphic unconformities. As a result, some topographic surfaces at low elevations are effectively Mesozoic land surfaces that became re-exposed in Cenozoic times. The Neogene Barreiras Formation forms a continuous and mostly clastic apron near the coast. It testifies to the last peak of erosion in the hinterland and coincided with the onset of more arid climates at  13 Ma or earlier. The semi-circular escarpment is not directly related to the initial breakup rift flanks, which had been mostly eroded before the end of the Mesozoic, but the cause and exact timing of post-Cenomanian crustal upwarping are poorly constrained. It could perhaps have been a flexural response of the low-rigidity lithosphere to sediment loads on the margin, and thus a slowly ongoing process since the late Cretaceous. Uplift could instead be the consequence of a more discrete dynamic event related either to Oligocene magmatism in the region, or to continental-scale far-field stresses determined by Andean convergence.     

Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century

This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes.     

Uncertainties in climate change prediction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons

The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.     

The history of environmental change and adaptation in eastern Saloum–Senegal—Driving forces and perceptions

Environmental change in the Sahel–Sudan zone of West Africa has been a major issue in development debates over the last decades. Using remote sensing based land cover change analysis, archival data, national and international statistical data, and household interviews, we analyze the drivers of environmental change in Eastern Saloum in Central East Senegal as well as the local perceptions of these changes and adaptation. Being part of the ground nut basin, Eastern Saloum has witnessed rapid environmental degradation caused by the conversion of forest and savanna areas to agricultural land during the last 20–30 years and by a combination of decline in precipitation, soil degradation, a diversity of policies with little concern for the environment, fluctuating markets and population pressure. Farmers perceive the environmental change mainly as land degradation and poor soil fertility, though recent extensification of agriculture counters this effect and has led to increased vegetation cover in marginal areas. They identified erratic climate, agricultural policies, insufficient food production and desire to increase income as the main drivers of change in the area. We conclude that while climate variability has influenced environmental change in the area, various types of State interventions in agriculture and global market fluctuations appear to have been the main underlying causes of environmental degradation.     

Climatic implications of correlated Upper Pleistocene glacial and fluvial deposits on the Cinca and Gállego Rivers (NE Spain) based on OSL dating and soil stratigraphy

We correlate Upper Pleistocene glacial and fluvial deposits of the Cinca and Gállego River valleys (south central Pyrenees and Ebro basin, Spain) using geomorphic position, luminescence dates, and time-related trends in soil development. The ages obtained from glacial deposits indicate glacial periods at 85 ± 5 ka, 64 ± 11 ka, and 36 ± 3 ka (from glacial till) and 20 ± 3 ka (from loess). The fluvial drainage system, fed by glaciers in the headwaters, developed extensive terrace systems in the Cinca River valley at 178 ± 21 ka, 97 ± 16 ka, 61 ± 4 ka, 47 ± 4 ka, and 11 ± 1 ka, and in the Gállego River valley at 151 ± 11 ka, 68 ± 7 ka, and 45 ± 3 ka. The times of maximum geomorphic activity related to cold phases coincide with Late Pleistocene marine isotope stages and Heinrich events. The maximum extent of glaciers during the last glacial occurred at 64 ± 11 ka, and the terraces correlated with this glacial phase are the most extensive in both the Cinca (61 ± 4 ka) and Gállego (68 ± 7 ka) valleys, indicating a strong increase in fluvial discharge and availability of sediments related to the transition to deglaciation. The global Last Glacial Maximum is scarcely represented in the south central Pyrenees owing to dominantly dry conditions at that time. Precipitation must be controlled by the position of the Iberian Peninsula with respect to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation system. The glacial systems and the associated fluvial dynamic seem sensitive to 1) global climate changes controlled by insolation, 2) North Atlantic thermohaline circulation influenced by freshwater pulses into the North Atlantic, and 3) anomalies in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic controlling precipitation on the Iberian Peninsula. Our scenario of glacial and fluvial evolution during the Late Pleistocene in northern Spain could be extrapolated to other glaciated mountainous areas in southern Europe.