沙漠化:从圈层耦合到全球变化

从沙漠化概念提出伊始 ,沙漠化成因机理的研究就一直成为学术界关注的焦点。沙漠化过程究竟有多少是由自然因素所致 ,多少是由人类活动所为 ,诸因素与沙漠化之间有何内在关系 ,沙尘天气发生发展过程及其诱因等 ,当属地球系统科学应解决的难题。文章从全球变化的角度 ,将沙漠系统视作一种类生命的非线性动力系统 ,指出沙漠化源于地球表层系统各圈层之间复杂的相关与耦合作用 :气候变化是控制沙漠进退的首要因素 ;陆表水持续亏损则是导致干旱、半干旱地区沙漠化发展的直接原因 ;岩石圈构造运动塑造了不同的地形地貌单元 ,奠定了沙漠分布的地理格局 ;人类的不当活动和气候变化引起的生物生产力的衰退及土地覆盖的破坏 ,造成了现代沙漠化的快速扩张。     

与全球变化有关的几个北极海洋地质问题

极地区域是全球变化研究的重点区域 ,在北极地区与全球变化有关的地质问题主要是北极地区的海陆变化对全球变化的影响 ,以及全球变化在地层中的记录。这涉及到北极形态变化及与其它大洋沟通的水道开闭情况 ,地形起伏对大气、大洋环流的影响 ,地壳升降与海平面变化对河流流量和海岸稳定性的影响 ,气体水合物及有机碳等变化对全球碳循环的影响 ,以及这些影响与气候变化信息在极地沉积物中的记录。文章在对上述影响及海洋地质研究状况进行探讨后 ,又简要介绍了中国的首次北极考察海洋地质研究状况     

灾害生态学——生态学的一个重要发展方向

对灾害生态学有关的基本概念与主要研究内容进行了探讨。认为灾害实际上是一种异常的生态学现象与过程，因此需要从生态学的角度加以研究，特别是要对灾害系统的发生成因、类型、时空分布、发展、危害、预测、控制和灾后恢复等的全过程生态学现象和规律以及相关技术进行研究。同时指出，当今，应围绕重大的全球性环境灾害问题，对其发生与发展的生态学机制与生态学后果，以及减轻、防范这些灾害的关键技术开展研究。     

A multi-scale study on land use and land cover quality change: The case of the Yellow River Delta in China

This paper presents a case study of the Yellow River Delta in China, to trace land use and land cover changes during the past 20 years, with an emphasis on land quality changes. Three sets of data are used in this case study: remote sensing data derived from satellite images; crop yield data from statistics; and soil data collected by the researchers in the field. Our study reveals that at the regional scale, LUCC has taken place in a positive direction: vegetation cover has been expanding and crop yields per hectare have been on rise. However, while the overall eco-environment has improved, the improvement is uneven across the Delta region. At local levels, some areas show signs of increased salinization and declining organic content. Both natural forces and human activities are responsible for the LUCC, but human activities play a more important role. While some impacts of human activities are positive, the damages are often long-lasting and irreversible. We also conclude that it is necessary to use both macro data (such as remote sensing data) and micro data (data collected in the field) to study land quality change. The former are efficient in examining land quality changes at the regional scale, the latter can serve to verify ground patterns revealed from macro data and help to identify local variations, so as to get a comprehensive understanding of LUCC and promote sustainable land use and land management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A method to predict the group fissuring and faulting caused by regional groundwater decline

Ground fissuring is a recurrent problem in many countries where water extraction surpasses the natural recharge of aquifers. Due to differential settlement, the soil layer undergoes deformation and cracks with serious consequences for civil infrastructure. Here, we propose an approximate analysis of the fissuring process that can be used to predict the location of cracks, which increasingly affect some middle- and large-sized cities in the world. For that purpose, the ground loss theory is applied to sediments overlying a sinusoidal-shaped graben. This analysis shows the existence of a tensile zone at the border of the graben with maximal values on its shoulder where tension cracks are more likely to appear. It also shows that soil deformation under differential settlement may evolve into ground faulting if water withdrawal continues. Finally, when a crack has completely developed, the tensile zone shifts towards the center of the graben, creating a new area for potential cracking and faulting.     

Crack damage stress as a composite function of porosity and elastic matrix stiffness in dolomites and limestones

Twenty-five uniaxial compression tests were performed to determine stress at onset of dilation, referred to herein as “the crack damage stress,” in heterogeneous dolomites and limestones. A simplified model for crack damage stress (σ_cd) is developed here using porosity, elastic modulus, Poisson's ratio and three empirical coefficients. The model shows that when porosity decreases and elastic modulus increases, σ_cd rapidly increases and approaches its maximum value. On the other hand, when porosity increases and elastic modulus decreases, σ_cd rapidly decreases and approaches its minimum value. The proposed model is validated for six heterogeneous limestone and dolomite formations which are widely distributed in Israel.     

井水位气压效率b值动态响应的断层-前兆场主应力组合模式

统计鲁03，04井流水作业闰的气压效率b值发现，在华北及其周缘绝大多数地震前两井前兆异常形态各异，经分析井孔定位断层走向与地震前兆场主应力的组合模式不同是产生上述现象的根本原因。     

半无限空间中圆形孔洞周围SH波的散射

建立了求解在含有圆形孔洞的弹性半空间中SH波散射与圆形孔洞附近动应力集中问题的解析方法。利用SH波散射的对称性和多极坐标的方法，构造了一个可以预先满足半空间自由表面上应力自由边界条件的圆形孔洞对SH波散射的波函数。利用这一波函数，则可将该问题转化成对一个圆形孔洞散射的求解问题。该问题的解答最终又可归结为对一组无究代数方程组的求解问题，并可利用截断有限项的方法对其进行计算，最后给出了有关圆形也洞附近动应力集中问题的算例和数值结果，并讨论了波数与圆孔至自由边界距离变化对动应力集中的影响。     

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前青海省形变及地温前兆特征分析

通过对青海省地倾斜、地应力、深井地温3种前兆手段在昆仑山口西8．1级地震前异常的分析与研究，得出了强地震远场前兆的一些初步特征，并与近场前兆异常特征做了比较，这对该省今后强震短期预报将是有益的。