基于空间公平理论的公共交通服务评价——以深圳市为例

使用空间无关的公平性衡量指数评价公交服务时,会忽视公交服务需求与供给的空间分布特征.为解决此问题,论文提出基于空间公平理论的公交服务评价框架,即通过构建综合基尼系数与莫兰指数的空间公平评价方法,实现整体尺度公交服务评价;通过对分析单元上相对需求与相对供给变量的匹配关系、空间差距进行分析,实现局部尺度公交服务评价,对整体...     

秋行夏令:2021年10月初北方致灾性持续暴雨及水汽极端性分析

2021年10月3—6日,我国北方地区经历了历史罕见的持续性极端强降水过程,暴雨中心稳定维持在陕西中部、山西、京津冀、辽宁等地南部和山东北部,给上述地区造成了巨大的经济损失和严重的人员伤亡。基于台站观测降水、NCEP/NCAR和ERA5再分析资料诊断了本次降水过程的极端性。结果表明,本次暴雨过程无论是降水强度、持续时长还是经向水汽输送均表现出典型北方夏季暴雨和大气环流配置特征。上述五省二市区域平均的过程累计雨量强度远远超过秋季其他暴雨个例,即使在夏季也位列第二。本次过程的极端性与强降水中心稳定在上述地区密切相关。上述五省二市区域平均降水连续4日均超过15 mm,这在秋季历史上从未出现过。除过程的极端性强外,9月山西等地降水异常偏多对10月初秋涝也起到了叠加作用。本次秋涝对应的大气环流呈现出典型的北方夏季主雨季环流型,表现为西太平洋副热带高压（副高）偏西偏北,副高西侧的经向水汽输送异常强盛,同时10月4—6日北方地区发生一次强冷空气过程,冷暖气流交汇在上述地区。水汽收支计算表明,本次过程的经向水汽输送强度为秋季历史之最,甚至超过了盛夏时期北方大部分暴雨过程水汽输送强度。上述分析结果表明,即使在仲秋时节亦可产生有利于北方极端持续暴雨的环流形势和水汽输送,并导致秋涝发生。     

高速铁路和城市蔓延对雾霾污染的异质性影响

为了探寻高铁开通能否抑制雾霾污染以及这种抑制作用在不同城市空间形态下是否存在异质性,本文首先分析了高铁和城市蔓延对雾霾污染的作用机制,在利用LandScan数据测算2003-2016年中国281个地级市城市蔓延指标的基础上,采用动态空间面板模型检验了城市蔓延与雾霾污染的空间动态关系.借助双重差分(DID)模型验证了高铁...     

Mass transport triggered by heavy rainfall: the role of endorheic basins and epikarst in a regional karst aquifer

This study aims at recognizing the mechanisms of mass transport between the karst surface and the saturated zone in a morphostructural relief of the Mesozoic karst carbonate platform of Murgia (Puglia, Southern Italy). The large dimension of the karst aquifer, the regional scale of the flow system, the boundary condition constituted by the sea, and the lack of freshwater springs constrain to the use of wells as monitoring points and limit the study area to the recharge area comprising 986 endorheic basins. The concentrations of non‐reactive tracers (nitrates) in the waters of autogenic recharge (from endorheic basins) have been modeled through the evaluation of effective infiltration, land use, and nitrogen surplus, with reference to a time window, which includes a low precipitation period followed by significant rainfall events. The comparison between the modeled nitrate concentrations and the nitrate concentrations measured in ground waters, coupled with the analysis of groundwater chemograms and records of hydraulic heads (all referred to the same time window), allows inferring the mechanism of mass transport between the karst surface and the groundwater table. The mass transport conceptual model requires the presence of the epikarst. The infiltration of significant rainfall in the endorheic basins after a low precipitation period displaces waters stored in the epikarst toward the saturated zone. Ground waters in the post‐event period show higher concentrations of nitrates, lower concentrations of total organic carbon, and higher Mg/Ca ratios than both those of the pre‐event period and the autumn‐winter recharge period. The post‐event recharge from epikarst storage determines a transient hazard of groundwater pollution with a time lag from the occurrence of the heavy rainfall.     

Suspended sediment transport regime in a debris‐flow gully on Vancouver Island,British Columbia

In debris‐flow‐prone channels, normal fluvial sediment transport occurs (nearly exclusively in suspended mode) between episodic debris‐flow events. Observations of suspended sediment transport through a winter season in a steepland gully in logged terrain revealed two event types. When flows exceeded a threshold of 270 l s⁻¹, events yielded significant quantities of sediment and suspended sediment concentration increased with flow. Smaller events were strongly ‘supply limited’; sediment concentration decreased as flow increased. Overall, there is no consistent correlation between runoff and sediment yield. Within the season, three subseasons were identified (demarcated by periods of freezing weather) within which a pattern of fine sediment replenishment and evacuation occurred. Finally, a signature of fine sediment mobilization and exhaustion was observed within individual events. Fine sediment transport occurred in discrete pulses within storm periods, most of the yield occurring within 5 to 15% of storm runoff duration, so that it is unlikely that scheduled sampling programs would identify significant transport. Significant events are, however, generally forecastable on the basis of regional heavy rainfall warnings, providing a basis for targeted observations. Radiative snowmelt events and rain‐on‐snow remain difficult to forecast, since the projection of temperatures from the nearest regular weather station yields variable results. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Annual estimates of water and solute export from 42 tributaries to the Yukon River

Annual export of 11 major and trace solutes for the Yukon River is found to be accurately determined based on summing 42 tributary contributions. These findings provide the first published estimates of tributary specific distribution of solutes within the Yukon River basin. First, we show that annual discharge of the Yukon River can be computed by summing calculated annual discharges from 42 tributaries. Annual discharge for the tributaries is calculated from the basin area and average annual precipitation over that area using a previously published regional regression equation. Based on tributary inputs, we estimate an average annual discharge for the Yukon River of 210 km³ year^–1. This value is within 1% of the average measured annual discharge at the U.S. Geological Survey gaging station near the river terminus at Pilot Station, AK, for water years 2001 through 2005. Next, annual loads for 11 solutes are determined by combining annual discharge with point measurements of solute concentrations in tributary river water. Based on the sum of solutes in tributary water, we find that the Yukon River discharges approximately 33 million metric tons of dissolved solids each year at Pilot Station. Discharged solutes are dominated by cations calcium and magnesium (5.65 × 10⁹ and 1.42 × 10⁹ g year^–1) and anions bicarbonate and sulphate (17.3 × 10⁹ and 5.40 × 10⁹ g year^–1). These loads compare well with loads calculated independently at the three continuous gaging stations along the Yukon River. These findings show how annual solute yields vary throughout a major subarctic river basin and that accurate estimates of total river export can be determined from calculated tributary contributions. Copyright © 2011. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Are artificial neural network techniques relevant for the estimation of longitudinal dispersion coefficient in rivers? / Les techniques de réseaux de neurones artificiels sont-elles pertinentes pour estimer le coefficient de dispersion longitudinale en rivières?

Abstract

Abstract Accurate application of the longitudinal dispersion model requires that specially designed experimental studies are performed in the river reach under consideration. Such studies are usually very expensive, so in order to quantify the longitudinal dispersion coefficient, as an alternative approach, various researchers have proposed numerous empirical formulae based on hydraulic and morphometric characteristics. The results are presented of the application of artificial neural networks as a parameter estimation technique. Five different cases were considered with the network trained for different arrangements of input nodes, such as channel depth, channel width, cross-sectionally averaged water velocity, shear velocity and sinuosity index. In the case where the sinuosity index is included as an input node, the results turned out to be better than those presented by other authors.     

Hydrodynamic characteristics and sediment transport of a tidal river under influence of wading engineering groups

By taking the Yong River for example in this paper, based on the multiple measured data during 1957 to 2009, the change process of runoff, tide feature, tidal wave, tidal influx and sediment transport are analyzed. Then a mathematical model is used to reveal the influence mechanism on hydrodynamic characteristics and sediment transport of the wading engineering groups such as a tide gate, a breakwater, reservoirs, bridges and wharves, which were built in different periods. The results showed the hydrodynamic characteristics and sediment transport of the Yong River changed obviously due to the wading engineering groups. The tide gate induced deformation of the tidal wave, obvious reduction of the tidal influx and weakness of the tidal dynamic, decrease of the sediment yield of flood and ebb tide and channel deposition. The breakwater blocked estuarine entrances, resulting in the change of the tidal current and the reduction of the tidal influx in the estuarine area. The large-scale reservoirs gradually made the decrease of the Yong River runoff. The bridge and wharf groups took up cross-section areas, the cumulative affection of which caused the increase of tidal level in the tidal river.     

Internal erosion of chemically reinforced granular materials: a mathematical modeling approach

Internal erosion (IE) affects the stability of natural and reinforced materials by causing instability within their granular structure. The dislodgement and transport of eroded particles affect both the particulate concentration of eroding fluid and the pore network of eroded material. In this study, we examined these modifications using a transport model with a finite element code. First, IE tests on chemically reinforced sand columns were performed to obtain information about eroded material loss of mass, particulate concentration of effluent, porosity and permeability modifications, and existing IE stages. Second, based on experimental results, a mathematical one‐dimensional model has been formulated to monitor the evolution and spatial distribution of erodible solids, fluidized particles, porosity, permeability, and seepage stresses. The model consists of a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations solved in sequence. It provides valuable information about the extent and the dynamics of structural changes, which can be used to estimate an IE time for the hydraulic work to reach failure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-Term Variability of Volume and Heat Transport in the Nordic Seas: A Model Study

This article presents results from a model study of interannual and decadal variability in the Nordic Seas. Fifty years of simulations were conducted in an initial condition ensemble mode forced with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. We studied two major events in the interannual and interdecadal variability of the Nordic Seas during the past fifty years: the Great Salinity Anomaly in the 1960s and early 1970s and the warming of the Arctic and subarctic oceans in the late 1990s.

Previous studies demonstrated that the Great Salinity Anomaly observed in the subarctic ocean in 1960 was originally generated by intensified sea-ice and freshwater inflow from the Arctic Ocean. Our model results demonstrate that the increase in the transport of fresh and cold waters through Fram Strait in the 1960s was concurrent with a reduction in the meridional water exchange over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. The resulting imbalance in salinity and heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge also contributed to the freshening of the water masses of the Nordic Seas and intensified the Great Salinity Anomaly in the Nordic Seas.

The warming of the Atlantic Waters in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean during the past two decades had an important impact on the variability of these two ocean basins. Some previous observational and model studies demonstrated that the warming of the subpolar Atlantic Ocean in the late 1990s and the meridional transport of the Atlantic Water mass (AW) into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean contributed to this process. At the same time, observations show that the warming of the AW in the Nordic Seas started in the 1980s (i.e., earlier than the warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Our model results suggest that this process was triggered by an imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through Fram Strait and over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. In the late 1980s the AW transport over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge was stronger than normal while the exchange through Fram Strait was close to normal. The related imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge warmed the Nordic Seas and caused an increase in the temperature of the AW inflow to the Arctic Ocean in the late 1980s (i.e., about a decade earlier than the warming of the source of the AW in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Thus the model results suggest that the imbalance in lateral heat and salinity fluxes through the strait and over the ridge connecting the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans could amplify the interannual variability in the subarctic ocean.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Cet article présente les résultats d'une étude par modèle de la variabilité interannuelle et décennale dans les mers nordiques. Nous avons effectué des simulations sur une période de cinquante ans en mode d'ensemble de conditions initiales forcé avec les réanalyses des NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction). Nous avons étudié deux événements majeurs survenus dans la variabilité interannuelle et décennale des mers nordiques au cours des cinquante dernières années : la grande anomalie de salinité des années 1960 et du début des années 1970 et le réchauffement des océans Arctique et subarctique vers la fin des années 1990.

Des études précédentes ont démontrées que la grande anomalie de salinité observée dans l'océan subarctique en 1960 a été causée par une intensification de l'apport de glace de mer et d'eau douce depuis l'océan Arctique. Les résultats que nous avons obtenus du modèle montrent que l'accroissement du transport d'eau douce et froide à travers le détroit de Fram dans les années 1960 s'est produit en même temps qu'une réduction dans l’échange méridien d'eau au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de salinité et de chaleur à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a aussi contribué à l'adoucissement des masses d'eau des mers nordiques et a intensifié la grande anomalie de salinité dans les mers nordiques.

Le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique au cours des deux dernières décennies a eu un impact important sur la variabilité de ces deux bassins océaniques. Des études observationnelles et par modèle précédentes ont établi que le réchauffement de l'océan Atlantique subpolaire dans les années 1990 et le transport méridien de la masse d'eau atlantique dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique ont contribué à ce processus. En même temps, les observations montrent que le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques a commencé dans les années 1980 (c.–à–d. plus tôt que le réchauffement de l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Les résultats du modèle suggèrent que ce processus a été déclenché par un déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit de Fram et au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. À la fin des années 1980, le transport des eaux atlantiques au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse était plus fort que la normale alors que l’échange à travers le détroit de Fram était près de la normale. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a réchauffé les mers nordiques et causé une augmentation de la température des eaux atlantiques parvenant à l'océan Arctique à la fin des années 1980 (c.-à-d. environ une décennie avant le réchauffement de la source d'eaux atlantiques dans l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Donc, les résultats du modèle suggèrent que le déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur et de salinité latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête reliant les mers nordiques à l'Atlantique Nord et à l'Arctique pourrait amplifier la variabilité interannuelle dans l'océan subarctique.