SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

Lithium Abundances in the Atmospheres of SLR C-Giants WZ Cas and WX Cyg from Resonance and Subordinate Li I Lines

Lithium abundances in the atmospheres of the super Li-rich C-giants WZ Cas and WX Cyg are derived by the spectral synthesis technique using the Li I resonance line at λ670.8 nm and three subordinate lines at λλ 812.6, 610.4 and 497.2 nm. The differences between the Li abundances derived from the λ670.8 nm line and the λλ 497.2, 812.6 nm lines do not exceed ±0.5 dex. The lithium line at λ610.4 nm provides typically lower abundances than the resonance line (by ≈ 1 dex). The mean LTE and NLTE Li abundances from three Li I lines (excluding λ610.4 nm) are 4.7, 4.9 for WZ Cas, and 4.6, 4.8 for WX Cyg, respectively. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

格网DEM中基于坡度信息的粗差检测与剔除方法试验

提出了一种基于格网DEM的粗差检测及剔除方法,其基本思想是对每个表面上的点,在坡度上,高程或突变量引起的形状不连续,可能被怀疑有误差,通过坡度上每个点,应用坡度逼近或改变量来计算,考虑坡度变化的相对值,并以这些相对值计算一个统计值为判断该点合法性的阈值,使计算结果更为可靠。     

应用GPS观测青藏高原东北缘应力场变化

采用各向同性弹性地球模型推导了地面位移场速率与地壳内任意点应力场变化的边界积分关系,同时利用青藏高原东北缘1999～2001年观测的GPS资料对观测区地壳深度为5 km和25 km的主应力和最大剪应力进行了计算分析.结果表明,青藏高原东北缘的主应力变化主要集中在祁连山断裂、海原断裂等,在1920～1954年间历史上发生过多次震级为7.0～8.5级强震的断裂附近,并具有主应力变化沿断层走向分布、最大剪应力沿断层走向交替变化等特征.     

卫星星座与编队飞行问题综述

卫星应用的日益发展需要由多颗卫星组成的卫星系统(形成各种类型的星座)来替代单颗卫星，这就给卫星轨道力学的应用增加了一些新内容。重点阐述了卫星星座整体结构的演化、卫星星座编队飞行中的星-星相对几何构形及其保持问题，以及星座卫星定轨所涉及的测控方式和天地基网联合定轨问题。这些内容都是卫星星座轨道力学中的重要组成部分。     

Comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1): UVSTAR-FUV Spectroscopy from the Space Shuttle

We report here on unique post-perihelion (2.3 AU) measurements of Comet Hale-Bopp in the FUV-range (950–1250 Å) by means of the UVSTAR spectrometer from the space shuttle with the main purpose of searching for argon and other FUV emitters. New methods for separating the strong airglow emission at shuttle altitudes are here discussed in detail. Due to our low resolution (15 Å) and S/N ratio the possible rocket-borne detection of argon near perihelion (0.9 AU) could not be confirmed. New species as N₂ are suspected but difficult to separate from the strong airglow emission at shuttle altitudes. From the Lyα brightness (1.30± 0.08 kRy) a water production rate Q = 5.9 ± 0.4 × 10²⁹ molecules s^?1 could be derived and compared with other post-perihelion observations.