1993年7—9月的全球地震动态

１９９３年第三季度，全球地震活动水平为中等偏高，明显高于上半年平均水平。日本北海道西南近海发生７．６级浅源地震，但不属于日本海沟地震。埃及西奈半岛发生５．７级地震，为今年亚欧带西段之最大地震。马里亚纳群岛发生８．１级中深震，使西北太平洋地区地震水平达到全球第一。兴都库什地区接连发生三次较大中深震，可能对我国西部地区地震活动有影响。墨西哥恰帕斯州近海发生７．３级地震，美洲带新的地震活动轮回正式开始。印度南部发生６．３级中强震，属于板内地震。     

环境场作用与西南低涡移动的初步分析

本文将西南低涡视为迭加在环境场上的一个扰动,把考虑环境场和非绝热作用下的次天气尺度扰动方程组写在一个简单斜压两层模式上,根据西南低涡的特点对方程组作一些近似处理,导得了反映低层(700hPa)西南低涡移动特征的移矢诊断方程。由此分析了影响西南低涡移动的主要因子,得出了一些定性结果。最后,利用移矢诊断方程作了低涡移动的实例计算分析,其结果与实况比较一致。     

Source models for the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake tsunami

A source model for the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki tsunami must satisfy certain conditions. Such conditions are presented in this paper, and two methods are used to determine the best source model for this event. A trial-and-error method selects DCRC-17a as the best among 24 different models. This model has three fault planes dipping westward. To reproduce well the tide gauge records at two locations, an inversion analysis is used to modify the dislocation of DCRC-17a.     

东北地区地震危险趋势分析

利用丰富的震史资料，研究了日本海沟、日本海深震与中国东北浅震的时空特征。根据深震、浅震的相关活动特点，我们对东北浅震危险趋势进行了分析。     

Link between convection and meridional gradient of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal

We use daily satellite estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during 1998–2005 to show that onset of convection over the central Bay of Bengal (88–92°E, 14–18°N) during the core summer monsoon (mid-May to September) is linked to the meridional gradient of SST in the bay. The SST gradient was computed between two boxes in the northern (88–92°E, 18–22°N) and southern (82–88°E, 4–8°N) bay; the latter is the area of the cold tongue in the bay linked to the Summer Monsoon Current. Convection over central bay followed the SST difference between the northern and southern bay (ΔT) exceeding 0.75°C in 28 cases. There was no instance of ΔT exceeding this threshold without a burst in convection. There were, however, five instances of convection occurring without this SST gradient. Long rainfall events (events lasting more than a week) were associated with an SST event (ΔT ≥ 0.75°C); rainfall events tended to be short when not associated with an SST event. The SST gradient was important for the onset of convection, but not for its persistence: convection often persisted for several days even after the SST gradient weakened. The lag between ΔT exceeding 0.75°C and the onset of convection was 0–18 days, but the lag histogram peaked at one week. In 75% of the 28 cases, convection occurred within a week of ΔT exceeding the threshold of 0.75°C. The northern bay SST, T _N , contributed more to ΔT, but it was a weaker criterion for convection than the SST gradient. A sensitivity analysis showed that the corresponding threshold for T _N was 29°C. We hypothesise that the excess heating (∼1°C above the threshold for deep convection) required in the northern bay to trigger convection is because this excess in SST is what is required to establish the critical SST gradient.     

Rockfall hazard in the Daisekkei Valley, the northern Japanese Alps, on 11 August 2005

This paper describes a rockfall event in the Daisekkei Valley of Mount Shirouma-dake (2,932 m), the northern Japanese Alps. The rockfall occurred on a steep cliff comprising well-jointed felsites and produced debris of ≥8,000 m³. Most debris was deposited on an elongated snowpatch located immediately beneath the cliff, and it caused casualties among people who were trekking along a trail on the snowpatch. Additionally, a large rock block slipped 1 km on the snowpatch. The rockfall could have been due to the differential retreat of the rockwall, which contains areas of high- and low-density joints. Seasonal and diurnal freeze–thaw activities and snow avalanches and wash appear to be important factors responsible for the retreat. Although some rock blocks that can collapse further remain on the rockwall, the position of the mountain trail in the Daisekkei Valley is fixed. Fundamental reform of tourism systems for climbers, including education on natural hazards, is required.     

Natural and anthropogenic aquatic environmental changes reconstructed by paleolimnological analyses in Lake Kitaura,central Japan

In order to assess the recent anthropogenic environmental changes in Lake Kitaura, central Japan, changes during the past few centuries were reconstructed from results of radiometric and tephrochlonological age determination, magnetic susceptibility measurements, total organic carbon analyses, total nitrogen analyses and fossil diatom analyses on a sediment core from the lake. A total of six major and sub-zones are recognized according to the diatom fossil assemblages, and we discuss aquatic environmental change in Lake Kitaura mainly based on these diatom assemblage change. Zone Ia and Zone Ib (older than AD 1707) are marine to brackish. In Zone IIa (AD␣1707–AD 1836), most of the brackish diatoms disappeared, and were replaced by freshwater species indicating a decrease in salinity. We interpret the salinity decrease in Zone I–IIa as a sea-level fall during the Little Ice Age. The salinity of the lake decreased to near freshwater conditions in Zone IIb (AD 1836–AD 1970), which could arise from alteration in River Tone or development of a sandspit in the mouth of River Tone in addition to sea-level change. In Zone IIIa (AD 1970–AD 1987), the diatom assemblage indicates a freshwater environment, and sedimentation rates increase rapidly. These changes reflect sedimentary environment change and an ecosystem transition due to the construction of the tide gate. In Zone IIIb (AD 1987–AD 2002), the diatom flux (valves cm⁻² y⁻¹) increased and species composition changed. The changes in Zone IIIb show a good agreement with limnological monitoring data gathered from the lake. These paleolimnological data suggest that the recent human-induced changes of the aquatic environment of the lake after the 1970s exceed rates during the period concerned in this study.     

Triassic mid-oceanic sedimentation in Panthalassa Ocean: Sambosan accretionary complex, Japan

Abstract   The Sambosan accretionary complex of southwest Japan was formed during the uppermost Jurassic to lowermost Cretaceous and consists of basaltic rocks, carbonates and siliceous rocks. The Sambosan oceanic rocks were grouped into four stratigraphic successions: (i) Middle Upper Triassic basaltic rock; (ii) Upper Triassic shallow-water limestone; (iii) limestone breccia; and (iv) Middle Middle Triassic to lower Upper Jurassic siliceous rock successions. The basaltic rocks have a geochemical affinity with oceanic island basalt of a normal hotspot origin. The shallow-water limestone, limestone breccia, and siliceous rock successions are interpreted to be sediments on the seamount-top, upper seamount-flank and surrounding ocean floor, respectively. Deposition of the radiolarian chert of the siliceous rock succession took place on the ocean floor in Late Anisian and continued until Middle Jurassic. Oceanic island basalt was erupted to form a seamount by an intraplate volcanism in Late Carnian. Late Triassic shallow-water carbonate sedimentation occurred at the top of this seamount. Accumulation of the radiolarian chert was temporally replaced by Late Carnian to Early Norian deep-water pelagic carbonate sedimentation. Biotic association and lithologic properties of the pelagic carbonates suggest that an enormous production and accumulation of calcareous planktonic biotas occurred in an open-ocean realm of the Panthalassa Ocean in Late Carnian through Early Norian. Upper Norian ribbon chert of the siliceous rock succession contains thin beds of limestone breccia displaced from the shallow-water buildup resting upon the seamount. The shallow-water limestone and siliceous rock successions are nearly coeval with one another and are laterally linked by displaced carbonates in the siliceous rock succession.     

Geological age of the Yokawa Formation of the Kobe Group (Japan) on the basis of terrestrial mammalian fossils

Abstract   The age of the Yokawa Formation of the Cenozoic Kobe Group distributed in Hyogo Prefecture of western Japan based on mammalian fossils is discussed. Two fossil dental specimens of terrestrial mammals discovered from the lowest part of the Yokawa Formation in the Sanda area are described. These two fossils described here are: (i) a right mandibular fragment with p2–m3 of Bothriodon sandaensis sp. nov. (selenodont anthracotheriid artiodactyl), which appears to be the most primitive among the species of the genus; and (ii) right m1–m3 of cf. Hyrachyus sp. (primitive rhinocerotoid perissodactyl). In the lower part of the Yokawa Formation, Zaisanamynodon (amynodontid perissodactyl) was previously reported. The morphology ('evolutionary stage') of B. sandaensis is indicative of the latest Middle to Late Eocene, that of cf. Hyrachyus sp. is indicative of the Early to Middle Eocene, and Zaisanamynodon is indicative of the Late Middle to Late Eocene. Therefore, the fossil mammals of the Yokawa Formation indicate an latest Middle Eocene ( ca . 38 Ma) correlation for the lower part of the formation, as a working hypothesis. Although the resolution of the geological age based on these mammalian fossils is relatively low compared to that based on marine index fossils, this result is concordant with the recent radiometric correlation of the lower part of the Yokawa Formation in the Sanda area.     

Groundwater-level Anomalies Associated with a Hypothetical Preslip Prior to the Anticipated Tokai Earthquake: Detectability Using the Groundwater Observation Network of the Geological Survey of Japan,AIST

We infer the groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated M 8 Tokai earthquake, and evaluate the detectability of the anomalies using data from seven groundwater wells. We evaluate the detectability of the anomalies under the following assumptions: (1) an Mw 5.5–6.5 aseismic preslip event occurs at the plate boundary in and around the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake; (2) the total amount of the strain step at each observation associated with the preslip can be calculated by tensile and shear faulting based on the dislocation model; (3) a normalized strain history associated with the preslip is defined from the results of numerical simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws; and (4) the groundwater-level anomaly prior to the earthquake is proportional to the estimated history of the strain change associated with the preslip. We investigate the detection time of the anomaly at seven wells given an Mw 5.5, 6.0, or 6.5 aseismic preslip at one of the 272 grid points in and around the area of the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake. As a result, over the time interval between 1 and 48 hours prior to the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, we are able to detect at each of the seven wells a hypothetical Mw 6.5 preslip at 10–86 of the 272 grid points, an Mw 6 preslip at 0–19 grid points, and an Mw 5.5 preslip at 0–5 grid points.