地震前兆复杂性成因机理研究的讨论（二）：地震前兆复杂性成因机理

针对前兆复杂性的种种表现,作从震源、构造应力场、断裂力学、前兆监测等方面探讨了前兆复杂性产生的可能原因。认为前兆复杂性是客观存在的,与共性一起构成前兆的二重性,因此在研究前兆时,既要研究共性,也要研究复杂性,才能更好地掌握或认识前兆。同时从复杂性中再寻求普遍性,进一步完善孕震理论和开发新的分析预报方法;造成前兆复杂性的根本原因是孕震的物理力学过程的复杂性,其中包括地质构造、孕震环境、动力学过程、     

6级左右历史地震震源参数的模拟估计

本文借鉴直接拟合烈度数据点和枚举震源参数的做法,设计了一种利用烈度资料估计6级左右历史地震震源参数的方法.该方法对震源参数所有可能的组合进行枚举,采用地震波场模拟计算转换的理论烈度值,利用模型选择方法评估各可能的震源参数组合模型与历史破坏记录推断的地震烈度数据点的拟合程度,对震源参数做出估计.该方法充分考虑到历史资料相对稀少对震源参数估计的影响,以多种震源参数估计结果和相应权重值来定量化表示估计的不确定性.通过对给定震中位置、震源深度和滑动角的Bootstrap数值恢复检测与2006年美国Parkfield 6.0级地震实例的测试,表明该方法得出的震源参数估计结果具有统计一致性和一定的无偏性.将该方法应用于1882年河北深县6级地震的震源参数估计,结果显示东西向旧城北断层或何庄断层及北东东走向的深西断层为深县地震的发震构造的可能性较大.     

Inversion of free oscillation data for an elliptical rotating earth in source moment tensor studies

It is shown, through numerical experiments, that the effect of ignoring ellipticity and rotation of the earth when inverting free oscillation data in moment tensor studies, is to introduce spurious spectral components in the solution. For numerical simulation of the data conditions of the 1970 deep Colombian event the spurious part has isotropic and deviatoric components, besides a distortion in the phase spectra which may lead to artificial precursive source in the solution. The magnitude of the artificial isotropic component is of the order of 10% of the real source moment tensor, depending on the data set used in the inversion. Measuring the excitation of each mode at each station using the technique of integrating over the spectral peaks does not cancel completely the effect of multiplet splitting, in particular that splitting due to rotation of the earth. The effect of lateral heterogeneities was simulated by introducing arbitrary splitting parameters which produced scattering in the eigenperiods compatible with those observed. For that splitting the inversion rendered additional isotropic components.We conclude that the observed implosive precursor the the 1970 Colombian event could have been artificially introduced by ignoring rotation, ellipticity and lateral heterogeneities of the earth.A procedure to invert free oscillation data for an elliptical rotating earth is proposed. It could be applied to a laterally inhomogeneous earth if the excitation for that model could be computed. Its application to real data for the deep Colombian event indicates that we will need to improve our knowledge on the effect of rotation, ellipticity, lateral heterogeneities and anelasticity on free oscillation and their excitation in order to solve accurately for the six components of the moment tensor independently.     

Analysis of tracer tomography using temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves

Hydraulic/partitioning tracer tomography (HPTT) was recently developed by Yeh and Zhu [Yeh T-CJ, Zhu J. Hydraulic/partitioning tracer tomography for characterization of dense nonaqueous phase liquid source zones, Water Resour Res 2007;43:W06435. doi:10.1029/2006WR004877.] for estimating spatial distribution of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in the subsurface. Since discrete tracer concentration data are directly utilized for the estimation of DNAPLs, this approach solves the hyperbolic convection–dispersion equation. Solution to the convection–dispersion equation however demands fine temporal and spatial discretization, resulting in high computational cost for an HPTT analysis. In this work, we use temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves instead of discrete concentration data to estimate DNAPL distribution. This approach solves time independent partial differential equations of the temporal moments, and therefore avoids solving the convection–dispersion equation using a time marching scheme, resulting in a dramatic reduction of computational cost. To reduce numerical oscillations associated with convection dominated transport problems such as in inter-well tracer tests, the approach uses a finite element solver adopting the streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin method to calculate moments and sensitivities. We test the temporal moment approach through numerical simulations. Comparing the computational costs between utilizing moments and discrete concentrations, we find that temporal moments significantly reduce the computation time. We also find that tracer moment data collected through a tomographic survey alone are able to yield reasonable estimates of hydraulic conductivity, as indicated by a correlation of 0.588 between estimated and true hydraulic conductivity fields in the synthetic case study.     

Quantifying and modelling the carbon sequestration capacity of seagrass meadows – A critical assessment

Seagrasses are among the planet’s most effective natural ecosystems for sequestering (capturing and storing) carbon (C); but if degraded, they could leak stored C into the atmosphere and accelerate global warming. Quantifying and modelling the C sequestration capacity is therefore critical for successfully managing seagrass ecosystems to maintain their substantial abatement potential. At present, there is no mechanism to support carbon financing linked to seagrass. For seagrasses to be recognised by the IPCC and the voluntary C market, standard stock assessment methodologies and inventories of seagrass C stocks are required. Developing accurate C budgets for seagrass meadows is indeed complex; we discuss these complexities, and, in addition, we review techniques and methodologies that will aid development of C budgets. We also consider a simple process-based data assimilation model for predicting how seagrasses will respond to future change, accompanied by a practical list of research priorities.     

Heavy metals in particulate and colloidal matter from atmospheric deposition of urban Guangzhou,South China

Suspended particulate matter (SPM) and colloidal matter (COM) in annual dry and wet deposition samples in urban Guangzhou were for the first time collected, and their trace metals were investigated by using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The deposition flux of SPM and of metal elements varied largely among the investigated seasons, and reached the maximum in spring. The correlation analysis indicated that significant correlations existed among some of the metal elements in the deposition samples. The enrichment factors (EF) of metals in COM in the deposition ranging from 79.66 to 130,000 were much higher than those of SPM ranging from 1.65 to 286.48, indicating the important role of COM. The factor analysis showed that emissions from street dust, non-ferrous metal production, and heavy fuel oil were major sources of the trace metals. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) model was used to quantitatively estimate anthropogenic source.     

利用区域宽频地震数据反演2021年5月云南漾濞MS6.4地震震源破裂过程

本文基于有限断层模型反演方法,利用区域宽频带数据反演了2021年5月云南漾濞M_S6.4地震的震源破裂过程,结果显示:此次地震的发震断层走向为SE向,主要以右旋走滑为主.破裂主要发生在震源东南侧,最大错动量约为0.55 m,位于深度约9 km处,发生明显破裂的深度约达13 km.此次地震释放的标量地震矩为1.48×10¹⁸N·m,相当于矩震级M_W6.05.地震能量主要在前11 s释放.在深度为6~8 km处破裂速度有明显的变快,可能加剧了地表的震动.     

楚雄盆地烃源岩有机地化特征及综合评价

对楚雄盆地各组段烃源岩的厚度分布特征、地化特征及成熟度特征分别进行静态研究，对各组段烃源岩的优劣及生烃潜力作出了综合评价，并预测了各区块的油气勘探前景。     

2000—2020年我国西南地区植被NEP时空变化及其驱动因素的相对贡献

植被碳汇是露天煤矿生态环境评价的重要指标,精确反演植被碳汇并进行准确分级对探索矿区生态修复至关重要。为此,提出一种基于粒子群优化算法的露天煤矿植被碳汇分级方法。基于Landsat遥感影像和气象数据,采用光能利用率模型,反演出内蒙古胜利一号露天煤矿区2005—2020年间排土场的植被碳汇时空分布;通过构建目标函数并迭代计算,获取了该区植被理想光能利用率、最佳气温和降水条件,量化并建立了植被碳汇分级标准;对不同时期各个排土场的植被碳汇结果进行分级,并对分级面积和占比的时空变化进行分析。结果表明：(1) 2005—2020年间研究区植被固碳能力呈上升趋势,年均增长值和增长率分别为1.43 gC/(m²·a)和6.97%。(2) 各排土场生态修复后,植被碳汇值大幅提高,极高和高植被碳汇区面积不断扩大。(3) 排土场生态修复效果存在差异,南北排土场表现最佳,沿帮次之,内排土场相对较差。到2020年南、北排土场极高植被碳汇区面积分别达0.94和0.92 km²,占比为92%和94%;沿帮排土场极高和高植被碳汇区面积达3.64 km²,占比66%;内排土场极高植被碳汇区面积增长至1.22 km²,占比达31%;2020年南、北和沿帮排土场已不存在极低植被碳汇区。研究成果不仅为露天煤矿生态环境评估提供了重要的数据支持,也为矿区生态修复策略制定提供了科学依据。