中国对钢铁资源的长期需求预测

钢铁工业是我国的支柱产业,对国内钢铁的长期需求进行科学预测,可以为我国经济发展的战略发展进行科学决策提供重要依据。由于我国铁矿资源不能满足国民经济发展需求,对钢铁需求的预测,不仅对我国钢铁工业布局和全球产业链配置具有重要参考价值,更对我国企业海外矿山投资具有重要指导意义。本文通过模型组合预测了"十二五"期间我国对钢的需求及其供需平衡,抛砖以引业内外人士高水平长期预测之玉。     

Oxygen isotopes from Chinese caves: records not of monsoon rainfall but of circulation regime

Oxygen isotope variations in Chinese stalagmites have been widely interpreted as a record of the amount of East Asian summer monsoonal rainfall. This interpretation infers decreasing monsoonal rainfall from the mid‐Holocene and large, dipolar rainfall oscillations within glaciations. However, the speleothem δ¹⁸O variations conflict with independent palaeoclimate proxies (cave δ¹³C, loess/palaeosol magnetic properties, δ¹³C alkanes), which indicate no systematic decline in rainfall from the mid‐Holocene, and no glacial rainfall maxima. Using mass balance calculations (which incorporate seasonality effects in both δ¹⁸O concentration and amount of precipitation), we demonstrate that the cave δ¹⁸O variations cannot be accounted for by summer rainfall changes, or rainfall seasonality or winter cooling, but instead reflect changes in moisture source. A possible driver of the δ¹⁸O variations in Chinese stalagmites is precessional forcing of inter‐hemispheric temperature gradients, and resultant shifts in the position and intensity of the subtropical pressure cells. Through such forcing, Indian monsoon‐sourced δ¹⁸O may have dominated at times of high boreal summer insolation, and local Pacific‐sourced moisture at low insolation. Suppression of summer monsoonal rainfall during glacial stages may reflect diminished sea and land surface temperatures and the radiative impacts of increased regional dust fluxes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nd–Sr isotopic constraint to the formation of metatexite and diatexite migmatites,Higo metamorphic terrane,central Kyushu,Japan

ABSTRACT

Metatexite and diatexite migmatites are widely distributed within the upper amphibolite and granulite-facies zones of the Higo low-P/high-T metamorphic terrane. Here we report Nd–Sr isotopic and whole rock composition data from an outcrop in the highest-grade part of the granulite-facies zone, in which diatexite occurs as a 3 m-thick layer between 2 m-thick layers of stromatic-structured metatexite within pelitic gneiss. The metatexite has Nd–Sr isotopes and whole rock compositions similar to those of the gneiss, but the diatexite shows the reverse. The diatexite has a higher ε_Nd(t) and ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd ratio (ε_Nd(t) = ?0.5; ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.1636) than the gneiss (ε_Nd(t) = ?2.1; ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.1287) and metatexite (ε_Nd(t) = ?3.1; ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.1188). The (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_initial and ⁸⁷Rb/⁸⁶Sr of the diatexite ((⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_initial = 0.70568; ⁸⁷Rb/⁸⁶Sr = 0.416) are lower than those of the gneiss ((⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_initial = 0.70857; ⁸⁷Rb/⁸⁶Sr = 1.13) and metatexite ((⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_initial = 0.70792; ⁸⁷Rb/⁸⁶Sr = 1.11). The metatexite and gneiss show enrichment of Th and depletion of P and Eu and have a similar chondrite-normalized REE pattern, which shows steep LREE–MREE-enriched and gently declining HREE patterns and negative Eu anomalies, whereas the diatexite shows enrichment of Sr and depletion of Th and Y, and exhibits gently declining LREE and steeply declining HREE pattern and weak Eu depletion. The metatexite migmatite is interpreted to have formed by in situ partial melting in which the melt did not migrate from the source, whereas the diatexite migmatite included an externally derived melt with a juvenile component. The Cretaceous high-temperature metamorphism of the Higo metamorphic terrane is interpreted to reflect emplacement of mantle-derived basalts under a volcanic arc along the eastern margin of the Eurasian continent, and mass transfer and advection of heat via hybrid silicic melts from the lower crust.     

Stratified convection with multiple states

A simplified box model of the cooling of a salt-stratified ocean is analyzed analytically and numerically. A large isothermal basin of salt water has a layer of fresh water at the surface. Beside this is a small basin, cooled from above and connected to the large basin by horizontal tubes at the top, middle and bottom. For small cooling rate, fresh water enters the small basin, is cooled and leaves through the middle tube. For greater cooling rate, the fresh water leaves the small basin through the middle and bottom tube. If the top tube is smaller than the deeper tubes and the fresh water layer is sufficiently shallow, flow in the middle tube reverses at a critical cooling rate. In this case, a mixture of salt and fresh water is cooled and leaves the bottom tube. Increased cooling produces much greater flow rate; consequentially temperature increases rather than decreases in the small basin. A relaxation heat flow condition results in multiple equilibria. One of the stable modes has fresh surface water descending in the small basin and flowing out through the middle and bottom tube. The other has a greater rate of flow of both fresh and salty water (through the middle tube) into the basin with the flow of mixed salty water out of the bottom tube. Implications for deep convection in the ocean are discussed.     

浅析四川汶川索桥滑坡稳定性及治理措施

根据工程地质测绘及勘探成果资料,在对四川汶川县索桥滑坡产生的成因机理和破坏模式进行分析判断的基础上,对两个潜在滑移面在不同的工况下的稳定性进行了分析评价,确定岩土交界面为最危险滑面.在此前提下对边坡发展趋势及激发诱因进行科学预测,认为在暴雨或余震等诱发下边坡极有可能失稳,并有针对性的制定了应急防治与永久根治的综合治理方案.     

Nontectonic signals in reprocessed continuous GPS position time series of CMONOC

The nearly nine-year continuous GPS data collected since 1 March 1999 from the Crustal Motion Observation Network of China(CMONOC) were consistently analyzed.Most of the nonlinear movements in the cumulative position time series pro-duced by CMONOC data center disappeared;and more accurate vertical terms and tectonic signals were extracted.Displacements caused by atmospheric pressure loading,nontidal ocean loading,soil moisture mass loading,and snow cover mass loading using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Reanalysis I/II models and Estimation of the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean(ECCO) data can explain most of the vertical annual terms at many stations,while only parts can be explained at Lhasa and southern coastal sites,indicating that there are some deformation mechanisms that are still unknown or not modeled accurately.The remarkable differences in vertical position time series for short-baseline sites reveal that GPS stations can be greatly affected by lo-cal factors;and attention should be paid when explaining observed GPS velocity vectors.     

Contemporary 14C radiocarbon levels of oxygenated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (O-PBDEs) isolated in sponge-cyanobacteria associations

Considerable debate surrounds the sources of oxygenated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (O-PBDEs) in wildlife as to whether they are naturally produced or result from anthropogenic industrial activities. Natural radiocarbon (¹⁴C) abundance has proven to be a powerful tool to address this problem as recently biosynthesized compounds contain contemporary (i.e. modern) amounts of atmospheric radiocarbon; whereas industrial chemicals, mostly produced from fossil fuels, contain no detectable ¹⁴C. However, few compounds isolated from organisms have been analyzed for their radiocarbon content. To provide a baseline, we analyzed the ¹⁴C content of four O-PBDEs. These compounds, 6-OH-BDE47, 2′-OH-BDE68, 2′,6-diOH-BDE159, and a recently identified compound, 2′-MeO-6-OH-BDE120, were isolated from the tropical marine sponges Dysidea granulosa and Lendenfeldia dendyi. The modern radiocarbon content of their chemical structures (i.e. diphenyl ethers, C₁₂H₂₂O) indicates that they are naturally produced. This adds to a growing baseline on, at least, the sources of these unusual compounds.     

Bi‐directional coupled tuned mass dampers for the seismic response control of two‐way asymmetric‐plan buildings

This paper proposes bi‐directional coupled tuned mass dampers (BiCTMDs) for the seismic response control of two‐way asymmetric‐plan buildings subjected to bi‐directional ground motions. The proposed BiCTMD was developed from the three‐degree‐of‐freedom modal system, which represents the vibration mode of a two‐way asymmetric‐plan building. The performance of the proposed BiCTMD for the seismic response control of elastic two‐way asymmetric‐plan buildings was verified by investigating the reductions of the amplitudes of the associated frequency response functions. In addition, the investigation showed that the proposed BiCTMD is effective in reducing the seismic damage of inelastic asymmetric‐plan buildings. Therefore, the BiCTMD is an effective approach for the seismic response control of both elastic and inelastic two‐way asymmetric‐plan buildings. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Divergence of solutions to perturbation-based advection-dispersion moment equations

Moment equation methods are popular and powerful tools for modeling transport processes in randomly heterogeneous porous media, but the application of these methods to advection-dispersion equations often leads to erroneous oscillations. Perturbative methods, required to close systems of moment equations, become inaccurate for large perturbations; however, little quantitative theory exists for determining when this occurs for advection-dispersion equations. We consider three different methods (asymptotic approximation, Eulerian truncation, and iterative solution) for closing and solving advection-dispersion moment equations describing transport in stratified porous media with random permeability. We obtain approximate analytical expressions for time above which the asymptotic approximation to the mean diverges, in particular quantifying the impact that dispersion has on delaying—but not eliminating—divergence. We demonstrate that Eulerian truncation and iterative solution methods do not eliminate divergent behavior either. Our divergence criteria provide a priori estimates that signal a warning to the practitioner of stochastic advection-dispersion equations to carefully consider whether to apply perturbative approaches.     

Linear and angular momentum conservation in hydraulic jump in diverging channels

This paper addresses the integral conservation of linear and angular momentum in the steady hydraulic jump in a linearly diverging channel.The flow is considered to be divided into a mainstream that conveys the total liquid discharge, and a roller where no average mass transport occurs. It is assumed that no macroscopic rheological relationship holds, so mass, momentum and angular momentum integral balances are independent relationships. Normal stresses are assumed to be hydrostatic on vertical, cylindrical surfaces. Viscous stresses are assumed to be negligible with respect to turbulent stresses. Assuming that the horizontal velocity distribution in the mainstream is uniform and that the horizontal momentum and angular momentum in the roller are negligible with respect to their mainstream counterparts, an analytical solution is obtained for the free surface profile of the flow. This solution is fundamental for finding the sequent depths and their positions. Consequently, it permits solving for the length of the jump, which is assumed to be equal to the length of the roller. Mainstream and roller thicknesses can also be derived from the present solution. This model may also be theoretically used to derive the average shear stresses exerted by the roller on the mainstream and the power losses per unit weight. This second relationship, which returns the well-known classical expression for total power loss in the jump, demonstrates that the strongly idealized mechanical model proposed here is internally consistent.