Effect of atmospheric CO2 and solar activity on wind regime and water column stability in the major global upwelling areas

It is not clear whether global warming will favour or reduce global ocean phytoplankton productivity in coastal areas. Moreover, the relative contributions made by natural and/or anthropogenic factors to possible changes in phytoplankton productivity are not clear. As the relationship between primary production and alongshore wind forcing is well established for the Eastern Boundary Current (EBC) ecosystems, our aim is to determine whether the changes experienced over the last five decades (1958–2007) in atmospheric CO₂ and solar activity have been able to affect the wind regime and water column stability in the most biologically productive upwelling areas of California, Canary, Humboldt and Benguela. We approached the work by statistically studying the effect of solar activity and atmospheric CO₂ on surface alongshore wind stress and on water column stability. There was an increasing trend in wind stress and water column stability in all the upwelling areas over the period studied (with the single exception of stability in the California EBC system). The analysis of detrended series evidenced significant relationships between atmospheric CO₂ concentration and wind stress and water column stability in the coastal upwelling areas investigated. In addition, wind stress and stability data were found to be consistent, with negative linear relationships between wind stress and CO₂ in most of the sites in the Benguela, Canary and Humboldt regions associated, as expected, to positive relationships when water column stability is used as regressand. The results of the present study suggest that greenhouse gas forcing, independent of its well known general increasing trend, was able to decrease wind stress intensity and increase water column stability for the period 1958 to present in most of the sites of the four Eastern Boundary Ecosystems studied, with the one exception of the California region. Conversely, the impact of solar activity appeared to be quite low compared to the greenhouse gas forcing.     

The impact of extreme turbidity events on the nursery function of a temperate European estuary with regulated freshwater inflow

Estuaries are used as nursery grounds by numerous marine species despite being usually subject to strong anthropogenic disturbances. Abundances of marine recruits (fish and crustacean decapods) and their main prey (mysids) were monitored by monthly sampling, from June 1997 to February 2009, in the lower reaches of the Guadalquivir estuary (SW Spain). During that period, unusually high and persistent turbidity events (HPTEs) were observed twice. Both HPTEs started with strong and sudden freshwater discharges after relatively long periods of very low freshwater inflow. Data from this time-series were used to test the hypothesis that HPTEs may negatively impact the nursery function of estuaries either by decreasing prey availability or by decreasing survival/arrival of marine recruits. During HPTEs, the commonest mysid (Mesopodopsis slabberi), a key species in the estuarine food web, showed a significant decrease in abundance. Likewise, some marine recruits that prey on M. slabberi and whose peaks of abundance within the estuary occur in summer–autumn (Engraulis encrasicolus and Pomadasys incisus) were less abundant during HPTEs. It is also suggested that HPTEs might have triggered a shift in the distribution of the most euryhaline prey (Neomysis integer) and predator (Dicentrarchus punctatus and Crangon crangon) species, towards more saline waters. This could have contributed to an increase in the inter-specific competition (for food/habitat) within the estuarine nursery area. The results discussed in this study call attention to the need to reduce as much as possible the anthropogenic pressures that may stimulate the occurrence of high and persistent turbidity events (HPTEs) in order to preserve the nursery function of temperate estuaries.     

赤道潜流变化及其与ENSO的关系

应用TOGA/TAO实测海流和SODA全球海洋再分析资料,分析研究了热带太平洋赤道潜流的变化特征及其与ENSO循环的关系,初步探讨了赤道潜流变化对两种不同类型(中部型和东部型)ENSO事件的影响。对赤道潜流距平场的EOF分解表明,第一模态为"东太平洋潜流模态",特征向量主要反映东太平洋赤道潜流的变化情况;第二模态为"中太平洋潜流模态",特征向量主要反映中太平洋赤道潜流的变化情况;这两个主要模态基本可以反映赤道潜流距平场的主要信息。这两个模态对应的时间系数有明显的年际变化特征,并且与NINO指数都有较好的负相关,最大相关均通过99.9%的信度检验。相关分析表明潜流第一模态的变化滞后于NINO指数变化,而第二模态的变化则提前于NINO指数变化,即ENSO事件对东太平洋赤道潜流的变化有一定影响,而中太平洋的潜流变化又会对ENSO事件产生影响。通过个例分析表明,中太平洋赤道潜流的变化对两种不同类型ENSO事件的发生有重要影响。在东部型ENSO事件发生前,中太平洋赤道潜流增强,这样西太平洋暖池的异常海温在潜流的引导下快速向东传播,直接到达东太平洋形成东部型ENSO事件;中部型ENSO事件发生前,中太平洋赤道潜流明显减弱,西太平洋的异常海温不能迅速东传速,在中太平洋堆积上升到达海面,使得中部型ENSO事件爆发。     

加强目标观测,服务防灾减灾

以深入浅出的方式介绍了目标观测的定义、历史、确定目标观测敏感区的方法,以及实施目标观测与防灾减灾的关系;并以欧洲中期天气预报中心目标观测业务化为例,简明地概括了目标观测的实施过程;结合国内目标观测研究现状,对中国目标观测的未来提出了看法。     

海陆气候事件关联规则挖掘方法

近年来,异常气候事件的频发对人类的生活环境和经济发展带来严重负影响。气象学家研究表明：海洋气候异常对陆地气候异常事件的发生具有重要的诱发作用,因此,对海陆气候间的内在关联机制进行深入挖掘具有重要研究价值。本文提出了一种关联规则挖掘方法,以探索单一海洋气候指数与陆地异常气候事件间存在的关联。首先,针对陆地气候要素,采用顾及空间邻近关系的层次聚类方法进行有效气候分区,通过对各层分区结果进行相关统计分析得到有效的各区域气候序列;然后,进行顾及多重约束进行时序关联规则挖掘,以探索海陆气候要素间的关联机制;最后,通过实际算例分析得到的各气候指数与我国陆地区域异常降水事件间的关联机制结果,与实际情况高度吻合。     

基于NOAA/POES卫星观测的磁层相对论电子起源的初探

本文利用低高度极轨卫星NOAA/POES的观测数据,并结合ACE卫星和Polar卫星的观测结果,研究分析了磁层相对论电子的起源. NOAA/POES卫星对于不同地磁活动时期相对论电子的分布和起源进行了较为详细观测, 分析结果表明（1） 亚暴期间注入磁层的能量电子可以为与磁暴相关的磁层高能电子暴提供种子电子;（2）太阳质子事件期间太阳风中的能量电子也可以为磁层中的相对论电子提供所需要的源.     

利用克里金技术标定新疆及附近地区P/S震相幅值比及其在地震事件识别中的应用

针对中国的乌鲁木齐台（WMQ）和哈萨克斯坦的马坎奇台（MAK）,采用贝叶斯克里金技术建立了新疆及附近地区地震事件的震相幅值比的校正曲面,并分析了校正曲面与地震波传播路径的关系,以及校正曲面对于改善震相幅值比判据识别效果的有效性.分析结果表明,建立的校正曲面基本合理,结合传播路径差异和地震波传播规律,能够较好地解释校正曲面的起伏特征. 而且,在传播路径差异较大,使得震相幅值比经震中距校正后离散度仍然较高的情况下,利用校正曲面修正震相幅值比,可以进一步降低其离散度,从而改善判据的识别效果.经校正曲面修正后,对天然地震的误识率由16.3%下降为5.2％.      

Tectonics of the Scandian orogeny and the Western Gneiss Region in southern Norway

Two crust-forming events dominate the Precambrian history of the Western Gneiss Region (WGR) at about 1800–1600 Ma and 1550–1400 Ma. The influence of the Sveconorwegian orogeny (1200–900 Ma) is restricted to the region south of Moldefjord-Romsdalen. A series of anorthosites and related intrusives are present, possibly derived from the now-lost western margin of the Baltic craton that may have been emplaced in the WGR as an allochthonous unit before the Ordovician.The Caledonian development is split into two orogenic phases, the Finnmarkian (Cambrian — Early Ordovician) and the Scandian (Late Ordovician/Early Silurian — Devonian). The lower tectonic units west of the Trondheim Trough may be Finnmarkian nappes ; they were part of the lower plate during the Scandian continental collision. The Blåhö nappe is correlated with dismembered eclogite bodies along the coast. A regional change of nappe transport direction from 090 to 135 marks the initiation of an orogen-parallel sinistral shear component around 425 Ma. The change caused the development of a complex sinistral strike-slip system in the Trondheim region consisting of the Möre-Tröndelag Fault Zone and the Gränse contact. The latter cut the crust underneath the already emplaced Trondheim Nappe Complex, thus triggering the intrusion of the Fongen-Hyllingen igneous complex, and initiating subsidence of the Trondheim Trough, and was subsequently turned from a strike-slip zone into an extensional fault. Minor southward transport of the Trondheim Nappe Complex rejuvenated some thrusts between the Lower and the Middle Allochthon. A seismic reflector underneath the WGR is interpreted to be a blind thrust which subcrops into the Faltungsgraben. During Middle Devonian orogenic collapse, detachment faulting brought higher units, now eroded elsewhere, down to the present outcrop level, such as the Bergen and Dalsfjord nappe and the Old Red basins.     

多层递推平稳模型

通过对小概率事件历史样本作多层递推迭代，逐次改变引入样本数求取权函数，建立一种平稳统计模式。模式信息容量大，收敛快，克服了常规统计模式的局限性，在灾害性天气客观预报模型应用中取得了明显效果。     

辐射日总量的最热坡度解析模式及其全球分布规律

本文给出了南北向坡面最热坡度的解析模式。（１）在北半球（下同），冬半年南坡存在最热坡度，且随纬度升高而增大，接近极夜时趋于９０°。（２）夏半年，存在两个临界纬度当时，南坡有最热坡度；当或时，北坡出现最热坡度。给出了和的解析式，证明分别是全球水平面上日辐射量最大值和最小值所在的纬度，它们仅依赖于赤纬。（３）最热坡度所在坡面获得的日辐射量，冬半年低纬大于高纬；夏半年低纬北坡随纬度递增，南坡时等于处水平面上日辐射量，极昼区内，北坡等于极点水平面的日辐射量。