Combining CLUE-S and SWAT models to forecast land use change and non-point source pollution impact at a watershed scale in Liaoning Province,China

Non-point source （NPS） pollution has become a major source of water pollution. A combination of models would provide the necessary direction and approaches designed to control NPS pollution through land use planning. In this study, NPS pollution load was simulated in urban planning, historic trends and ecological protection land use scenarios based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） and Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） models applied to Hunhe-Taizi River Watershed, Liaoning Province, China. Total nitrogen （TN） and total phosphorus （TP） were chosen as NPS pollution indices. The results of models validation showed that CLUE-S and SWAT models were suitable in the study area. NPS pollution mainly came from dry farmland, paddy, rural and urban areas. The spatial distribution of TN and TP exhibited the same trend in 57 sub-catchments. The TN and TP had the highest NPS pollution load in the western and central plains, which concentrated the urban area and farm land. The NPS pollution load would increase in the urban planning and historic trends scenarios, and would be even higher in the urban planning scenario. How- ever, the NPS pollution load decreased in the ecological protection scenario. The differences observed in the three scenarios indicated that land use had a degree of impact on NPS pollution, which showed that scientific and ecologically sound construction could effec- tively reduce the NPS pollution load in a watershed. This study provides a scientific method for conducting NPS pollution research at the watershed scale, a scientific basis for non-point source pollution control, and a reference for related policy making.     

Life cycle and population dynamics of Idotea balthica basteri (Pallas, 1772), Isopoda Valvifera from the Bizerte lagoon (Southern Mediterranean Sea – Tunisia)

The population dynamics and life cycle of Idotea balthica basteri (Pallas, 1772) were studied at the Menzel Jemil (lagoon of Bizerte, Tunisia) based on monthly samples taken from October 2009 to September 2011. The presence of juveniles and gravid females throughout the sampling period showed that this species exhibits continuous reproduction. Sexual differentiation occurs in approximately 43–59 days. Females took 88–160 days (3–5.5 months) to reach sexual maturation, and males took 102 days (3.5 months). The fecundity and fertility values exhibited a great variation in the number of eggs and embryos or mancae inside the marsupium which was correlated with the length of the gravid females. The sex ratio underwent fluctuations throughout the sampling period but was always in favour of females. Size frequency distributions were analysed recognizing 24 cohorts during the sampling period. Six cohorts were identified in October 2009 and 18 cohorts in November 2009–September 2011. Among these latter cohorts, nine were tracked till they disappeared. The minimum average size of new cohorts ranged from 1.92 ± 0.31 to 2.97 ± 0.26 mm and the maximum values ranged from 12.83 ± 0.96 to 19.23 ± 0.56 mm. Life span was estimated at 10–14 months. I. balthica basteri, in the lagoon of Bizerte, is a semi‐annual species with iteroparous females, and a bivoltine life cycle that produces two generations per year.     

Amodified discrete element model for sea ice dynamics

Considering the discontinuous characteristics of sea ice on various scales,a modified discrete element model（DEM） for sea ice dynamics is developed based on the granular material rheology.In this modified DEM,a soft sea ice particle element is introduced as a self-adjustive particle size function.Each ice particle can be treated as an assembly of ice floes,with its concentration and thickness changing to variable sizes under the conservation of mass.In this model,the contact forces among ice particles are calculated using a viscous-elastic-plastic model,while the maximum shear forces are described with the Mohr-Coulomb friction law.With this modified DEM,the ice flow dynamics is simulated under the drags of wind and current in a channel of various widths.The thicknesses,concentrations and velocities of ice particles are obtained,and then reasonable dynamic process is analyzed.The sea ice dynamic process is also simulated in a vortex wind field.Taking the influence of thermodynamics into account,this modified DEM will be improved in the future work.     

Vertical zonation and aggregated distribution of the Manila clam on subtidal sand flats in a coastal brackish lagoon along the Sea of Japan

The Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum, has maintained small‐sized populations in a semi‐enclosed brackish lake along the Sea of Japan, the Honjo area of Lake Nakaumi, although the environment and biota of this area have changed dramatically due to a large‐scale reclamation project. There should be underlying processes that enable the restoration of this species from small‐sized populations, such as the existence of source (i.e. reproductive) populations in other areas and depth zones of the lake. However, there has been no robust, properly designed evaluation of the distribution of the Manila clam in the subtidal sand flats. In order to elucidate the possible mechanisms that allow for the persistence of populations of the Manila clam, we examined the spatiotemporal and vertical variation in distributions of 0‐age clams in the subtidal zone of sand flats. Seasonal effects on population variations showed erratic changes among depth zones without a decreasing trend along the depth gradient. Further, many local populations became extinct even in the shallower zones due to seasonal (summer) hypoxia at deeper zones and hypoxia by the accumulation of key benthic species (Asian mussel and decaying macroalgae) in mats at shallower zones. A few surviving local populations were stable with a spatial‐fragmental (patchy) distribution, associated with fragmented accumulations of Asian mussels and macroalgae. Efforts to maintain stable populations and to restore this species in the subtidal area may depend on these small, restricted, patchy local populations. These findings suggest that high fertility and productivity of the Manila clam as well as patchy distribution of small populations may contribute to the maintenance of the population and the avoidance of extinction (by spatially diffusing the risk of extinction) in harsh environments resulting from the reclamation project.     

中国北部黄海近岸水体周丛硅藻的群落群集动态特征的研究

The colonization features of periphytic diatoms were studied in coastal waters of the Yellow Sea, northern China from May to June 2010, using glass slides as an artificial substratum. Samples were collected at a time interval of 1, 3, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 d from two depths of 1 and 3 m. The dynamics of diatom colonization process had a similar pattern in community structure and fitted the logistic model in growth curve at both depths. The maximum abundance and the time for reaching 50% maximum abundance （10 d） showed no significant differences （P〉0.05） between two depths 1 and 3 m. Although the diatom communities repre- sented similar taxonomic composition, they differed in the temporal pattern of structural parameters and in succession dynamics of dominant species between the two layers. The species richness showed significantly higher values during the colonization period more than 14 d, while the species diversity and evenness rep- resented a higher variability with significantly different values （P〈0.05） at a depth of 1 m than at a deeper layer. The results suggest that the diatom colonization follows the logistic model growth curve and differs in colonization features between different depths in the coastal waters, and that the sampling strategy at i m is more effective to detect the ecological features for bioassessment in marine ecosystems.     

Performance of a northwestern Mediterranean bottom trawl fleet: How the integration of landings and VMS data can contribute to the implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management

The European Union has established a framework to achieve or maintain good environmental status in the marine environment by 2020. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires the application of the ecosystem approach to the management of human activities, covering all sectors having an impact on the marine environment. However, fisheries in the Mediterranean are far from a systematic implementation of an ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). Aiming to address this issue, this study explores the potential of the relationship between daily yield by vessel (landings and income by species) and vessel position (known via vessel monitoring system) as a tool for fleet management. This approach is possible due to the current dynamics of Mediterranean fleets, with vessels returning daily to the harbour where landings are registered as weight and income by vessel. Moreover, vessels of >15 m total length have been compulsory monitored by VMS since 2005. A bottom trawl fleet that operates in the northwestern Mediterranean was chosen to develop this approach. Different groups of trawlers were identified, which could be linked to the strategies displayed by the fishermen that were mainly driven by the target species dynamics. Accurate knowledge of the fishing targets driving the fleet dynamics and of the fishing strategies at the vessel level (i.e. fishing ground habitat where the fishing pressure is exerted and corresponding landings) are shown to be a feasible tool for fleet management.     

Soil respiration mapped by exclusively use of MODIS data for forest landscapes of Saskatchewan,Canada

Soil respiration (R_s) is of great importance to the global carbon balance. Remote sensing of R_s is challenging because of (1) the lack of long-term R_s data for model development and (2) limited knowledge of using satellite-based products to estimate R_s. Using 8-years (2002–2009) of continuous R_s measurements with nonsteady-state automated chamber systems at a Canadian boreal black spruce stand (SK-OBS), we found that R_s was strongly correlated with the product of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the nighttime land surface temperature (LSTn) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The coefficients of the linear regression equation of this correlation between R_s and NDVI × LSTn could be further calibrated using the MODIS leaf area index (LAI) product, resulting in an algorithm that is driven solely by remote sensing observations. Modeled R_s closely tracked the seasonal patterns of measured R_s and explained 74–92% of the variance in R_s with a root mean square error (RMSE) less than 1.0 g C/m²/d. Further validation of the model from SK-OBS site at another two independent sites (SK-OA and SK-OJP, old aspen and old jack pine, respectively) showed that the algorithm can produce good estimates of R_s with an overall R² of 0.78 (p < 0.001) for data of these two sites. Consequently, we mapped R_s of forest landscapes of Saskatchewan using entirely MODIS observations for 2003 and spatial and temporal patterns of R_s were well modeled. These results point to a strong relationship between the soil respiratory process and canopy photosynthesis as indicated from the greenness index (i.e., NDVI), thereby implying the potential of remote sensing data for detecting variations in R_s. A combination of both biological and environmental variables estimated from remote sensing in this analysis may be valuable in future investigations of spatial and temporal characteristics of R_s.     

基于Sufer软件的安徽巢湖马家凹地区土壤化探测量的数据处理方法

通过各项地质工作,完成面积约7.47 km2的土壤化探测量,采集样品1 353个,根据统计分析结果,确定了区内Au元素与Cu、Pb、Zn及Ag的关系较之Co、Ni密切,反映了区内金的成矿与老地层有一定的成因联系。通过异常等级的确定,圈定金化探异常9个。并利用地球化学块体方法对区内金的资源潜力进行了评估。初步认为区内金在构造、地层有利地段是最佳的最找矿地段。     

南海北部神狐区域 SH2 站位甲烷水合物成藏动力学模拟研究

南海北部神狐区域海底的高丰度水合物储层与生物成因为主的甲烷气源表明该区域很可能是一种特殊的复合型海洋水合物系统,其成藏动力学机制有待进一步的研究和澄清。建立了一个耦合沉积层地质属性-流体流动过程-水合物反应动力学的传输-反应模型,区别了两种不同类型的水合物形成(分解)动力学过程:(1)在通常情况下溶解甲烷和游离气共同形成水合物,(2)特殊情况下游离气直接生成水合物,结果表明在神狐海域热力学环境下游离气形成水合物速度比溶解甲烷快约4倍,气体含量和动力学常数比值越大生成水合物越快,而对比水合物分布的模拟结果与实测数据表明该区域水合物储层聚集和产状很可能受到了其他地质活动的影响。     

一种基于贝叶斯理论的区域斜坡稳定性评价模型

本文结合滑坡物理模型和统计模型的优点,针对小流域滑坡稳定性分析,建立了一种基于贝叶斯理论的区域斜坡稳定性评价模型。该模型主要采用灾害自身信息来修正原始模型中的参数,解决了区域稳定性评价中参数难以确定的问题。该方法首先设定模型的初始参数分布,然后利用采样点雨前和雨后稳定性不同的信息建立验证方程,再根据马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟和贝叶斯方法确定最终的参数分布,进而得出区域稳定性分布。应用该模型对福建省蔡源小流域的6 13滑坡群发性事件进行分析。结果显示,蔡源小流域地区的无量纲黏聚系数C为0.028,有效摩擦角为16.7,土壤的导水系数T和降雨量q的比值为529.026m,可能不稳定地区和不稳定地区达到76.0%。该模型利用历史灾害数据自动模拟出合适的参数,对区域滑坡稳定性评价具有重要意义。