Articles 4.8 and 4.9 of the UNFCCC: adverse effects and the impacts of response measures

Abstract

Articles 4.8 and 4.9 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Article 3.14 of its Kyoto Protocol require parties to take measures to minimise the adverse effects of climate change on developing and least developed countries (LDCs). The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) argue that this should mean assistance for capacity building to help them adapt to a changing climate. Articles 4.8 and 3.14 also require parties to take measures to minimise the impacts of emission reduction measures on energy exporting countries. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries argue that this should mean assistance to compensate for lost oil revenues. This paper explores the dimensions of the adverse effects/impacts issue. It explains how, in arguing that progress on Articles 4.8, 4.9 and 3.14 be equal to progress on the issue of assistance to compensate for lost oil revenues, OPEC countries obstruct progress on assistance to developing and LDCs for adaptation to climate change. This suggests that tacit G77/China support for OPEC's position may ultimately not be in their best interests. The paper discusses the outlook for the adverse effects/impacts of response measures issue.     

Relating root causes to local risk conditions: A comparative study of the institutional pathways to small-scale disasters in three urban flood contexts

The continued rise of global disaster losses pushes our attention yet further to the causal factors that drive risks, beyond the frame of standardised risk assessment models. A key gap in our understanding of the causality of disasters remains establishing how spatially and temporally distant factors – ‘root causes’ – drive local risk conditions. This is particularly the case for small-scale but high-impact disasters. It includes understanding the role that institutions play in influencing such pathways of risk production. This paper addresses this question using a holistic approach to risk analysis that links past drivers to contemporary conditions. We apply this in three case studies of coastal flood management in urban areas of differential size and integration within the European Union - Rethymno (Crete), Genoa (Italy) and St Maarten (Dutch Caribbean). The paper reveals the importance of local institutions in mediating the impacts of higher-level economic and political changes on local risks. It provides new empirical evidence of the relationship between austerity, institutional reform and local disaster risk reduction. The analysis supports a stronger causal epistemology of resilience to disasters but also leads to re-consideration of the institutional entry points for risk reduction, and the importance of considering context and trade-offs.     

Surface tension effects on energy dissipation by small scale,experimental breaking waves

Much of the existing knowledge about breaking waves comes from physical model experiments scaled using Froude's law. A widely held assumption is that surface tension effects are not significant at typical laboratory scales and specifically for waves longer than 2 m. Since, however, smaller wavelengths are not untypical in small to medium scale laboratory facilities, a consideration of surface tension effects is indeed important. Although some emphasis has been given in the past, little is known regarding the importance of surface tension following impingement of the breaking-wave crest and especially on the overall energy dissipation by laboratory breaking waves.     

Rodent selection by Geoffroy’s cats in a semi-arid scrubland of central Argentina

Small mammals usually constitute the main prey for Leopardus geoffroyi throughout its distribution. We studied the patterns of small rodent selection by this felid in a semi-arid scrubland of central Argentina, addressing whether prey choice may be related to the availability, morphology, and distribution of the different rodent species. Cat’s diet was studied during 2005-2006 through the analysis of 182 scats, along with field estimates of rodent abundances from trapping. The cricetine rodents Akodon molinae and Calomys musculinus were predated according to the availability expected by trapping, indicating that their use was opportunistic. Akodon azarae and Graomys griseoflavus, on one hand, and Eligmodontia typus, on the other hand, were consumed in lower and higher proportion than their availabilities, respectively. Our results suggest that some cricetine rodent characteristics such as abundance, escape ability, microhabitat use, and activity period, appear to be potential factors contributing to differential vulnerability to predation by Geoffroy’s cat in central Argentina.     

考虑土结构性损伤的小应变模型

结合叠合小应变模型和结构性土的损伤理论,提出了可以考虑土的结构性损伤对小应变下刚度的影响的小应变模型。该模型可作为其他常规土体本构模型的数据接口模型,从而使其他常规本构模型能充分反映土体的小应变特性。通过与实验资料比较分析表明模型可以有效模拟结构性土体的小应变特性。     

基于小基线DInSAR技术监测太原市2003～2009年地表形变场

基于高相干点目标反演缓慢地表形变已成为当前DInSAR技术的研究热点.本文通过融合PS方法和相干目标法优点,采用小基线DInSAR技术提取城市地表形变场,并重点分析了地表线性形变的反演.在此基础上,以太原市为研究区,利用23景ENVISAT ASAR影像,提取了该市2003～2009年的地表形变场.研究结果表明:(1)...     

Response to Commentaries by Craig Campbell,Lyle Courtney and Walter G. Hardwick,and John E. Chappell,Jr.

Abstract

The combination of detailed sample data with less detailed but fully enumerated marginal subtotals is the focus of a wide range of research. In this article we advocate careful modeling of sample data, followed by Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF). The modeling aims to estimate accurately the interaction or odds ratios of complex tables, which is information not contained in the marginal subtotals. IPF ensures consistency with the subtotals. We advance this work in three practical ways. First, we show that detailed small-area estimates of both counts and proportional distributions usually gain accuracy by combining data for larger areas containing the small areas, and we illustrate the multilevel framework to achieve these estimates. Second, we find that a general classification or socioeconomic typology of the small areas is even more associated with the within-area interactions than is membership of the larger area. Third, we show how the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) can be used for IPF in any number of dimensions and with any structure of constraining marginal subtotals. Throughout, we use an example taken from the 1991 U.K. Census. These data allow us to evaluate various methods combining 100 percent tabulations and the Samples of Anonymised Records.

     

Connecting historical and contemporary small-area geography in Britain: The creation of digital boundary data for 1971 and 1981 census

This paper reports on the outcome from a project that has developed a GISbased procedure to capture digital boundaries for the small spatial units used in the British Population Census in 1981, and for the geographically comparable units connecting back with the previous enumeration in 1971. 1981 census geography was originally recorded as linear and textual annotations on paper base maps that were subsequently microfilmed. Four methods involving varying degrees of automation for capturing digital representations of these census units from the scanned microfilm imagery are evaluated. Details presented are in the context of British census geography before digital capture of small census units became routine, but the evaluation of the methods and the final procedure cover issues that are generally applicable in situations where the capture of historical mapping is attempted.     

东北地震区小震资料完整性分析及其对地震活动性参数的影响研究

以东北地震区为例,基于G-R关系的震级-频度分布原理,研究了东北地震区最小完整性震级MC的时间分布特征和各时段的空间分布特征,统计了研究区内的地震活动性参数,探讨了小震资料完整性分析对地震活动性参数和地震危险性计算结果的影响。研究表明：对区域小震资料进行完整性分析,可以在低地震活动地区获得较准确的地震活动性参数,更好地反映了该区未来的地震活动趋势。本文的研究方法和结论可供地震资料完整性分析和地震活动性分析时参考。     

新疆数字测震台网的监测能力及其构造意义

新疆地震监测台网从1970年前的4个台发展到2008年数字测震台网建设完成以后,共有测震台站63个,结合邻省的15个地震台站的实时数据,地震监测能力得到极大的提高。阿勒泰构造小区、西准噶尔小区、北天山西段、南天山东段和西段现今的地震监测能力为1.5~2.0级,东天山为2.0~2.5级,西昆仑、阿尔金和交汇区为2.5~3.0级,乌鲁木齐和喀什附近地区的现今监测能力为0.5~1级。新疆数字测震台网的建设着重考虑了对新疆活动构造的监测,目前对新疆大部分活动断裂带的监测能力都在1.0~1.5级,这对今后的地震监测预报和防震减灾工作有十分重要的意义。