湖泊沉积物对磷的吸附特征及其吸附热力学参数

在模拟条件下研究了属于不同营养水平的3个沉积物吸附磷等温线、动力学和热力学参数,比较了不同沉积物吸附磷的差别。结论如下:（1）在本研究条件下,五里湖沉积物吸附磷的Qmax、K、NAP和EPC0均高于东太湖和贡湖沉积物,而m却较低。东太湖和贡湖沉积物与其上覆水间基本保持磷吸附-解吸动态平衡状态,五里湖沉积物有向上覆水释放磷的趋势;（2）沉积物吸附磷主要发生在0⁰.5h之内,此时间段吸附速率为贡湖沉积物与东太湖沉积物相差不大,均高于五里湖沉积物;（3）温度对五里湖沉积物吸附磷影响相对较小,而对贡湖和东太湖沉积物影响较大。     

利用高密度电阻率法进行断层破碎带探查的数值模拟方法

为明确不同条件下断层破碎带的异常特征 ,提高高密度电阻率法 (HDR)的应用效果 ,该文在大量探测实例的基础上提出断层破碎带的地电模型 ;用有限元数值模拟的方式计算出不同地表电性层的情况下 ,高、低阻断层破碎带在不同电测的异常特征并确定最佳采集装置形式 ;并正演模拟倾斜断层的异常分布形态 ,给出为提高视电阻率断面对断层产状反映能力的数据处理方法     

黄土湿载结构性模型在黄土边坡动力稳定性分析的应用

土的结构性是土颗粒空间排列和粒间粘结综合作用所表现出来的力学效应。在地震荷载作用过程中,天然土边坡的结构性参数主要体现应力和变形的共同作用,反映地震荷载作用过程中应力和变形的协调关系及结构性土的结构损伤过程(即抗剪强度参数的变化规律)。首先通过分析认为用结构性参数来定量判断地震荷载作用过程中黄土边坡的稳定性更具合理性,其物理意义更明确;其次通过分析黄土地区某一天然边坡在Ⅸ度地震烈度作用下的黄土边坡动力稳定性,验证结构性参数作为边坡稳定性分析判据的可行性,且这一方法能定量地确定边坡滑动面的位置及所对应的安全结构性参数。     

转换波和非转换波与射线参数p的关系

本文对Aki固体-固体分界面的反射和透射公式进行适当变换,使之成为一组适合不同坐标系下,固体、液体、气体和真空之间所有可能形成的分界面上,入射P、SV和SH波所形成的反射和透射公式,从而把不同边界条件的反射和透射方程统一起来,并且阐明了转换波和非转换波动力学特征的差异.指出:在不同弹性介质分界面上入射平面弹性波,转换波的反射系数和透射系数是射线参数p的奇函数;非转换波的反射系数和透射系数是射线参数p的偶函数.根据奇函数和偶函数的性质可见:垂直入射时不存在转换波.同时也为简化Zoeppricz方程,开展AVO分析打开新思路.     

伴随模式同化系统在修正模式误差中的应用研究

资料误差和模式误差都是制约数值预报结果准确性提高的关键因素,传统四维资料同化都是假设模式完全正确仅对初始资料进行修正,忽略了模式误差本身造成的预报误差。伴随模式同化系统不仅具有修正资料误差的能力,也可应用于修正模式误差方面的研究。本文将卫星中心导风系统提供的GMS5卫星风场与非常规温度资料用于MM5伴随同化系统修正模式地形误差进行试验性研究表明,该方法能够反演出一个既与初始气象要素场相匹配,又与模式更协调的地形场,得到比一般包络地形更好的效果,改善模式对强降水中心及降水区域的预报;数值试验结果还揭示模式误差对模式预报造成一定的影响,用伴随方法对观测资料进行修正的同时也对模式误差进行修正的方法是可行的。     

Hydrological modelling using data from monthly GCMs in a regional catchment

This study demonstrates the use of spatially downscaled, monthly general circulation model (GCM) rainfall and temperature data to drive the established HyMOD hydrological model to evaluate the prospective effects of climate change on the fluvial run‐off of the River Derwent basin in the UK. The evaluation results of this monthly hydrological model using readily available, monthly GCM data are consistent with studies on nearby catchments employing high‐temporal resolution data, indicating that useful hydro‐climatic planning studies may be possible using standard datasets and modest computational resources. HyMOD was calibrated against 5 km² gridded UK Climate Projections dataset data and then driven using monthly spatially interpolated (~5 km²) outputs from Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC‐SRES) A2a and B2a covering the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results for both GCMs project a decrease in annual run‐off in both GCM models and scenarios with higher values in the summer/autumn months, whereas an increase in the later winter months. Both Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis show higher ranges of uncertainty during the winter season with higher values of run‐off associated with December in all three simulation periods and two scenarios. A seasonal comparison of run‐off simulations shows that both GCMs give similar results in summer and autumn, whereas disparities due to GCM uncertainties are more conspicuous in winter and spring. In this study, both the GCMs under A2a scenario have demonstrated the high possibility of time shift in monthly average peak run‐offs in the Derwent River by 2080s in comparison with the early 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood hydrograph reconstruction from the peak flow value in ephemeral streams using a simplified robust single‐parameter model

Flood hydrographs from ephemeral streams in arid areas provide valuable information for assessing run‐off and groundwater recharge. However, such data are often scarce or incomplete, especially in hyper‐arid regions. The hypothesis of this study was that it is possible to reconstruct a hydrograph of a specific point along an ephemeral stream with the knowledge of only the peak flow rate of a flood event at that point and that this can be done at almost every point along the stream. The feasibility of this approach lies in the shape of the recession stage of the flood hydrograph, which is known to be a repeating phenomenon. The recession stage comes immediately after the peak flow rate, when it begins its decline, and lasts until the flood is extinguished. A general shape of the flood recession stage can be provided. Because the recession stage represents ~80% of the duration of a flood event, it can provide a general idea of the flood hydrograph's shape. A simple model based on geometric progression is suggested to describe the repeating recession stage of a flood. The advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only one parameter: the recession characteristic at a fixed point along the ephemeral stream, termed recession coefficient q. By knowing the recession coefficient of a fixed point and the peak flow rate of a flood event at that point, one can plot the flood hydrograph. A good agreement is shown between the observed and computed values of the recession stage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Derivation of Parametric Tropical Cyclone Models for Storm Surge Modeling

In this paper, the parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed. Instead of tangential wind speed via cyclostrophic balance and radial wind speed using a simple formulation of defection angle, the analytical expressions of tangential and radial wind speed distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations based on the general symmetric pressure distribution of Holland and Fujita. The radius of the maximum wind is estimated by tropical cyclone wind structure which is characterized by the radial extent of special wind speed. The shape parameter in the pressure model is estimated by the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in the East China Sea. Finally, the Fred cyclone (typhoon 199417) is calculated, and comparisons of the measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.     

Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment

Despite their acknowledged limitations, lumped conceptual models continue to be used widely for climate‐change impact assessments. Therefore, it is important to understand the relative magnitude of uncertainties in water resource projections arising from the choice of model calibration period, model structure, and non‐uniqueness of model parameter sets. In addition, external sources of uncertainty linked to choice of emission scenario, climate model ensemble member, downscaling technique(s), and so on, should be acknowledged. To this end, the CATCHMOD conceptual water balance model was used to project changes in daily flows for the River Thames at Kingston using parameter sets derived from different subsets of training data, including the full record. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to explore parameter stability and identifiability in the context of historic climate variability. Parameters reflecting rainfall acceptance at the soil surface in simpler model structures were found to be highly sensitive to the training period, implying that climatic variability does lead to variability in the hydrologic behaviour of the Thames basin. Non‐uniqueness of parameters for more complex model structures results in relatively small variations in projected annual mean flow quantiles for different training periods compared with the choice of emission scenario. However, this was not the case for subannual flow statistics, where uncertainty in flow changes due to equifinality was higher in winter than summer, and comparable in magnitude to the uncertainty of the emission scenario. Therefore, it is recommended that climate‐change impact assessments using conceptual water balance models should routinely undertake sensitivity analyses to quantify uncertainties due to parameter instability, identifiability and non‐uniqueness. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.