松辽盆地白垩系火山岩储层岩石物理声学特性分析

采集松辽盆地徐家围子地区9口探井57块营城组火山岩石样品,在模拟实际地层温度、压力条件下进行岩石物理参数测试,以期逐步实现火山岩储层流体的地球物理直接识别。采用超声脉冲透射法测定岩样的声学参数(纵波速度和横波速度),进行了不同流体状态下岩样的岩石物理参数特征分析。结果表明,在双参数域空间,特别是在体性-剪性双参数空间,火山岩含气储层与含水储层较易区分。     

运用H、O同位素资料分析地下热水的补给来源——以鲁西北阳谷-齐河凸起为例

通过对阳谷-齐河凸起地下热水的化学成分、同位素及其地热地质条件的分析,对这一地区的地下热水的补给来源进行了研究。本区地下热水的δD为-65‰～-80.67‰,δ18O为-9.2‰～-10.2‰,均分布在全球雨水线的附近,说明该区地下热水主要为大气降水成因。济南北地热田地下热水的补给高程为256m,此范围大致相当于济南南部山区及其以南的泰山北麓;聊城东地热田地下热水的补给高程为411m,此范围大致相当于泰山山脉及其周边的中山区。聊城东地热田地下热水的2H过量参数d明显低于济南北地热田,说明聊城东地热田地下热水的补给区比后者更远。     

A fast inversion method for ocean parameters based on dispersion curves with a single hydrophone

The dispersion characteristics of shallow water can be described by the dispersion curves, which contain substantial ocean parameter information. A fast ocean parameter inversion method based on dispersion curves with a single hydrophone is presented in this paper. The method is achieved through Bayesian theory. Several sets of dispersion curves extracted from measured data are used as the input function. The inversion is performed by matching a replica calculated with a dispersion formula. The bottom characteristics can be described by the bottom reflection phase shift parameter P. The propagation range and the depth can be inverted quickly when the seabed parameters are represented by on parameter P. The inversion results improve the inversion efficiency of the seabed parameters. Consequently, the inversion efficiency and accuracy are improved while the number of inversion parameters is decreased and the computational speed of replica is increased. The inversion results have lower error than the reference values, and the dispersion curves calculated with inversion parameters are also in good agreement with extracted curves from measured data; thus, the effectiveness of the inversion method is demonstrated.     

重力模型参数空间差异研究——以中国城市间铁路客流为例

重力模型是重要的空间相互作用模型,已经在相关研究和实践中得到了广泛应用.在重力模型应用中,结果对参数的敏感性较高,不同的参数设置就可能导致结果体系的巨大差异,故精确的参数是重力模型应用的基础.许多研究关注了重力模型参数的提取,但限于数据等因素,参数在空间上的差异性尚未得到充分的重视.本文采用2010年城市间铁路客运量作为城市间相互作用强度的反映,以城市市辖区居民总可支配收入作为城市的“质量”,刻画城市本身的吸引力,进而通过回归分析考察重力模型的参数结果;并结合地理信息系统的空间插值工具,分析重力模型中各个参数的空间差异并得到可视化结果.相比于既有研究,本文在变量选取中增加了城市间列车交流频次这一变量,与平均运行时间结合共同反映城市之间的“距离”,使模型拟合结果得到较大改进.结果表明,重力模型参数取值在空间上存在显著差异,对不同区域使用统一的重力模型参数可能使结果出现较大偏差,因此将重力模型应用到具体实践中时,不能忽略参数的空间异质性.     

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A rational approach to seepage flow effects on bottom friction beneath random waves

The bottom friction beneath random waves is predicted taking into account the effect of seepage flow. This is achieved by using wave friction factors for rough turbulent, smooth turbulent and laminar flow valid for regular waves together with a modified Shields parameter which includes the effect of seepage flow. Examples using data typical to field conditions are included to illustrate the approach. The analytical results can be used to make assessment of seepage effects on the bottom friction based on available wave statistics. Generally, it is recommended that a stochastic approach should be used rather than using the rms values in an otherwise deterministic approach.     

Genetic parameter estimation for juvenile growth and upper thermal tolerance in turbot (Scophthalmus maximus Linnaeus)

Twenty-six half-sib groups(53 full-sib families) of turbot, Scophthalmus maximus Linnaeus, were obtained by artificial insemination. We measured growth in the offspring(40–50 individuals/family) and subjected them to a thermal tolerance challenge over a period of 34 d. There was no significant difference in daily mortality(range: 0.580%–1.391%) between Days 1–13 during the thermal tolerance challenge. However, daily cumulative mortality increased rapidly between Days 14 and 29, especially on Days 15 and 16(20.232% and 34.377%, respectively). Mortality was highest on Day 16(14.145%). We estimated the genetic parameters using the average information restricted maximum likelihood method. We used a likelihood ratio test to evaluate the significance of effects in models with and without identity as an effect, and compared the final log-likelihoods(maximum log L). Lastly, we estimated phenotypic and genetic correlation between the upper thermal tolerance limit(UTT) and body weight(BW). In this study, the positive phenotypic correlation was low between UTT and BW(0.093±0.029). The genetic correlation between UTT and BW was negative(-0.044±0.239). The heritability for upper thermal tolerance was low(0.087±0.032), which is of approximately moderate heritability. The heritability for body weight was high(0.303±0.074). Our results suggest there is significant potential for improvement in the culture of turbot by selective breeding.     

类多变量输出误差系统的耦合多新息辨识方法

辅助模型辨识思想、多新息辨识理论、耦合辨识概念是研究复杂多变量系统辨识的新理念和原理.将它们结合起来研究类多变量输出误差系统的辨识问题,提出了多元辅助模型辨识方法、多元辅助模型多新息辨识方法、变递推间隔多元辅助模型多新息辨识方法.为减小算法的计算量和提高参数估计精度,将系统模型分解为一些子辨识模型,应用辅助模型辨识思想、多新息辨识理论、耦合辨识概念,研究和推导了部分耦合辅助模型辨识方法、部分耦合辅助模型多新息辨识方法.讨论了几个典型辨识算法的计算量,给出了参数估计的计算步骤和计算流程图.     

一种基于贝叶斯理论的区域斜坡稳定性评价模型

本文结合滑坡物理模型和统计模型的优点,针对小流域滑坡稳定性分析,建立了一种基于贝叶斯理论的区域斜坡稳定性评价模型。该模型主要采用灾害自身信息来修正原始模型中的参数,解决了区域稳定性评价中参数难以确定的问题。该方法首先设定模型的初始参数分布,然后利用采样点雨前和雨后稳定性不同的信息建立验证方程,再根据马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟和贝叶斯方法确定最终的参数分布,进而得出区域稳定性分布。应用该模型对福建省蔡源小流域的6 13滑坡群发性事件进行分析。结果显示,蔡源小流域地区的无量纲黏聚系数C为0.028,有效摩擦角为16.7,土壤的导水系数T和降雨量q的比值为529.026m,可能不稳定地区和不稳定地区达到76.0%。该模型利用历史灾害数据自动模拟出合适的参数,对区域滑坡稳定性评价具有重要意义。     

隧道涌水量的类型划分及预测方法

根据工程应用的目的不同将隧道的涌水量划分为施工涌水量和长期涌水量,针对涌水量预测方法常常存在使用不当的问题,在全面分析隧道涌水量预测方法的适用条件的基础上,按不同的水文地质条件提出了正确选择隧道涌水量预测方法及其计算参数的建议。