黄河水沙变化趋势及成因分析

自2000年以来,黄河中上游河道非汛期出现变清趋势,黄河呈现"枯水枯沙"的新水沙特征。本文依据黄河干、支流24个主要水文控制站1950-2016年实测水沙资料,采用数理统计法和趋势分析法,分析了60多年来黄河干、支流水沙变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明:(1) 1950-2016年黄河干、支流各站年均径流量、年均输沙量和年均含沙量随时间总体呈减小趋势,其中2000-2016年(Ⅲ时段)各站年均输沙量和年均含沙量降幅最大。(2) 1950-2016年黄河中游流域干、支流各站年均中数粒径随时间呈减小趋势,黄河水沙状况枯丰期差异显著,但随时间呈减弱趋势。(3)黄河水沙变化是自然因素和人类活动综合作用的结果,近年来黄河中游河道变清是泥沙锐减造成的,其中水保措施、水库工程、河道采砂及流域调水调沙引水引沙是主因,且人类活动影响的比重逐渐增大。     

137Cs and 210Po in Pacific walrus and bearded seal from St. Lawrence Island, Alaska

The activity concentration of Cesium-137 ((137)Cs) and naturally-occurring Polonium-210 ((210)Po) were measured in the muscle tissue, kidney and liver of Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) and bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus) collected by native hunters from the Bering Sea during May 1996. The mean (137)Cs concentrations in muscle, liver and kidney of Pacific walrus were 0.07, 0.09 and 0.07 Bq kg(-1) (n=5, wet weight), respectively, and 0.17, 0.10, and 0.17 Bq kg(-1) (n=2, wet weight), respectively, in bearded seal. In general, (137)Cs tissue concentrations are significantly lower than those previously reported for mammals from other regions. By comparison, (210)Po activity concentrations are more variable and appear to be higher level compared with mammal data from other regions. The mean (210)Po concentration in the muscle tissue, liver and kidney of Pacific walrus (n=5, wet weight) were 28.7, 189, and 174 Bq kg(-1), respectively. This compares with (210)Po concentration values (n=2, wet weight) of 27, 207 and 68 Bq kg(-1) measured in the muscle tissue, liver and kidney, of bearded seal, respectively. Estimated concentration factors--as defined by the radionuclide concentration ratio between the target tissue to that in sea water--were two to three orders of magnitude higher for (210)Po that those of (137)Cs. We conclude from radiological dose estimates that ingestion of (137)Cs in foods derived from walrus and seal will pose no threat to human health. This work has important implications for assessment of risks of Alaskan coastal communities concerned about the dumping of nuclear waste in the Russia Arctic.     

区域要素市场分割与要素配置效率的时空演变及关系

在修正的全局参比价格法基础上,结合非参数DEA-Hybrid模型评测了中国29个省份的要素市场分割水平及要素配置效率,进而构建考虑地理距离与经济规模的综合权重矩阵,利用空间Durbin模型实证分析区域要素市场分割对要素配置效率的影响。研究发现:东部地区的要素市场分割水平相对较低,中部次之,西部最高;要素市场分割将引致要素配置效率扭曲且存在显著的空间溢出效应,适度财政分权能有效抑制要素市场分割引致的要素配置效率扭曲;较高的国有经济占比、产业结构高级化、交通基础设施和外商直接投资能有效改善区域要素配置效率,对外开放的效率改进作用尚不明显。清除地区间要素市场壁垒并充分发挥市场配置资源的决定性作用是提升要素配置效率的着力点。     

农业市场化对农户种植效益的影响——基于沪苏皖农户调查的实证研究

通过沪苏皖3省16个村的分层抽样农户调查发现,农业市场化的发育程度决定着农户种植经济收益的高低,不同农产品基本遵循高投入、高产出的规律,地区差异明显。根据定量分析和CD扩展模型检验表明,生产要素市场和农产品市场共同影响农户土地种植效益。为提高土地产出,农户更重视种子、化肥、农药等农资的增产性投入,劳工和机械投入随家庭非农活动情况而变化。农产品市场销售行为对农户种植效益的提高呈较明显的正向刺激作用,市场价格是关键要素,销售率和销售成本对商品型农产品影响更显著。另外农户素质及收入结构对种植效益也产生显著影响,人力资本水平与种植效益成正相关关系。     

2001年6月河南省两场区域性暴雨过程对比分析

通过对河南省2001年汛期两场区域性暴雨过程对比分析结果表明：发生同一环流背景之下的两次区域性过程具有一定相似之处和不同特征；北方低涡的稳定维持对我省降雨过程具有重大影响；中尺度辐合的产生对于区域暴雨过程的产生具有重要作用；物理量场数值分析对暴雨落区具有较好的指标意义。     

唐山滨海湿地分布特征及其形成的控制因素

唐山滨海湿地资源丰富,类型多样,天然湿地和人工湿地交错分布。湿地的空间形态基本按照等高线与海岸线呈近似平行的带状分布,其形成受控于研究区活跃的新构造运动所造成的地面快速沉降以及地表水系的分布与改变,也明显受到降水量、蒸发量及其季节和年际变化等气候条件的制约,还受到沉积环境、地层结构、地下水赋存条件等自然因素的影响。然而,伴随近年来研究区大规模的工农业建设和城市化进程,人为因素上升为滨海湿地机能退化的主控因素。城市化、工农业现代化和港口建设等人类活动以及由此引发的环境污染,造成湿地面积萎缩和生态机能的减退,已经明显超过了自然因素对滨海湿地演化的影响。唐山滨海湿地的形成和发育是对研究区构造运动—气候演化—环境变迁之间耦合关系的响应记录,更是现代工农业生产活动的结果。     

扎龙保护区湿地扰动因子及其影响研究

扎龙湿地的扰动因子有气候、洪水、火、水利工程、农业活动等因子。这些扰动因子给湿地带来了正反两方面的作用,而扎龙湿地在扰动因子的作用下,导致湿地面积减小、生物多样性降低、水质污染、景观破碎等,进而导致湿地功能下降,生态环境严重恶化。对湿地扰动因子进行分析,掌握它们的作用过程和发生机理,对湿地的利用、保护以及恢复重建具有重要的意义。     

Time series of multivariate data in aquatic ecology

Coupling of multivariate methods and time series analysis can be ueful for studying dynamics of aquatic communities. This is demonstratred with a data set from the pelagic area of an oligo-mesotrophic lake in Central Spain during 61 consecutive days of Autumn overturn. Abiotic variables, phytoplankton species and their total biomass were traced. Species abundance and specific biomass were considered as indices of community structure and resource partitioning, respectively. Abiotic and algal data sets were subjected to factor analyses of cases separately. Atmospheric forcing and nitrogen could be considered as the main (2) driving variables of the abiotic matrix. The coupling of motile abilities and cell size was associated to the main factors of the community structure matrix whereas phosphorus limitation and species responses to buoyancy represented the main factors of the biomass matrix. Coordinates of the two first factors could be used to mimic the trajectories in the data space. Significant short term lags (1–4 days) were found in most time series. Lagged responses of atmospheric forcing and nitrogen on phytoplankton community structure and resource partitioning at scales of 1–7 days were also shown. Overall phytoplankton biomass did not show significant delayed responses, thereby suggesting that it might be resulting from the interplay of other non-studied factors.     

Seasonal Variation and Meteorological Control of CO2 Flux in a Hilly Plantation in the Mountain Areas of North China

The carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems is an important scientific issue in global climate change re-search. Plantation forest plays an important role in terrestrial carbon budget in China. In this study,eddy covariance flux data measured at Xiaolangdi forest ecosystem research station (XLD) in 2007 and2008 are used to analyze the seasonal variation and meteorological control of CO2 flux in a 30-yr-old mixedplantation. The plantation forest mainly consists of Quercus variabilis, Platycladus orientalis, and Robiniapseudoacacia. The results show that the seasonal variations of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE),gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Re) display single-peak curves. The maximumof carbon sequestration appears during May and June each year. The relative contribution of carbon re-lease from ecosystem respiration to GPP varied slightly between 2007 and 2008. The relationship betweenNEE and photosynthetic active radiation (Qp) accords with the rectangular hyperbola model on diurnalscale, and shows a good linear correlation on monthly scale. The ecosystem photosynthetic parameters:the maximum photosynthetic rate (Pmax), the ecosystem photosynthetic photonyield (α), and the daytimeecosystem respiration (Rd) exhibit seasonal variations. Pmax reaches the maximum in August each year,with small interannual di?erence. The interannual differences of α and Rd are obvious, which is attributedto the changes of meteorological factors, such as solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit (D), precipitation,etc. Parameters Re, GPP, and NEP (net ecosystem production) have obvious exponential relations withtemperature on monthly scale. There is a hysteresis in the response of GPP and NEP to temperature, i.e.,the carbon sequestration is not the maximum when the temperature reaches the peak value. The Q10 valueswere 1.37 and 1.45 in 2007 and 2008, respectively. On monthly scale, Re, GPP, and NEE increase as Dincreases, but rise slowly and even decrease when D is higher than 1.5 kPa.     

流动人口的城市定居意愿及影响因素——以安徽省为例

流动人口市民化是以人为核心的新型城镇化的客观要求,系统探索流动人口的城市定居意愿既是促进流动人口市民化的前提,又能为城市管理提供决策依据,已成为当前地理学、社会学研究的重点。本研究基于2015年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,以安徽省为案例地,在探讨安徽省人口流动的总体特征上,运用Logistic回归模型,解析流动人口城市定居意愿及影响因素,探究流动人口城市定居意愿的代际差异。结果表明：（1）安徽省流动人口以跨省流动为主,人口流动家庭化趋势明显,流向省外人口主要向长三角城市集聚,但流动人口规模已呈现逐年下降的趋势,经济发展水平和空间距离是影响人口流动的主要原因。（2）安徽省流动人口的定居意愿较高,有随着流入地经济水平的提高而增加的趋势;从新生代与初代流动人口来看,初代流动人口更倾向于选择经济发展较好的城市定居,而新生代流动人口更倾向于选择经济发展中等和较弱的城市定居,但整体差异不大。（3）从流动人口城市定居意愿的影响因素来看,同住人数、流动原因、流动时长、流入地经济发展水平、户口所在地的影响最大;从代际之间来看,性别、就业收入、净收入、就业身份等因素显著影响新生代流动人口,而家属随迁、流动地经济水平、年龄对初代流动人口的影响较为显著。