植被冠层截留对地表水分和能量平衡影响的数值模拟

利用NCAR_CLM4.0模式,通过有无植被冠层截留的试验对比分析,讨论了植被冠层截留对全球陆面水分和能量平衡产生的潜在影响.结果表明:就全球水分平衡而言,不考虑植被冠层截留时,全球平均土壤总含水量、表面径流和次表面径流增加,蒸散发减少.空间分布特征表明,低纬地区各水分平衡分量全年维持较高的差值分布,并随季节变化沿赤道南北振荡;北半球中高纬高值区有春季扩张、夏季极盛、秋冬季撤退的趋势.冠层截留消失后冠层蒸发的消失是蒸散发减弱的主要原因.对于能量平衡而言,不考虑冠层截留时,全球感热通量增加,冠层感热的增加明显大于地面感热的减少;潜热减少.此外,不同植被类型对不考虑冠层截留后产生的响应存在明显差异.     

Aspects of alluvial river bank recession: some examples from the Niger delta

 The recession of alluvial channel banks occurs as a sequence of mass movements or by gradual dissolution of bank materials. Criteria for recognizing and interpreting bank recessions due to mass movement and/or erosion are presented. Using back analysis technique, slope development processes are reconstructed as a sequence of bank failure episodes and erosional events. Various mechanisms of mass bank failure and recession as well as causative agents have been identified and analyzed. A deterministic sensitivity technique based on partial differentiation can be used for evaluating the contribution of factors to bank recession and as a basis for selecting bank erosion remedial measures. Received: 15 September 1995 · Accepted: 23 January 1996     

How many and from where? Assessing the sensitivity of exposure durations calculated from paired bedrock 14C/10Be measurements in glacial troughs

We present a sensitivity analysis of the isochron approach of Goehring et al. (2013) for paired measurements of in situ ¹⁴C/¹⁰Be from glacially sculpted bedrock surfaces. This analysis tests how sensitive the resulting exposure durations from this technique are to both the number of samples analyzed and their locations along a glacial trough transect, using a dataset from Goehring et al. (2011) as a test case. A simple equally weighted combinatorial approach was employed to (1) generate non-repetitive combinations of n subsets of samples arranged from the ten possible samples (where n < 10), and (2) estimate the exposure duration and uncertainty for each set of simulations. Results from the Goehring et al. (2011) data indicate that five samples evenly distributed along a transect parallel to the ice margin are the minimum number of samples required for this method, while eight or more samples provide an optimal combination of accuracy and precision at the 1σ level. These findings should be applicable to paired in situ ¹⁴C/¹⁰Be measurements from other polished bedrock troughs at glacial margins, but need further experimental confirmation.     

基于ERSM涡轮盘径向变形的非线性动态概率分析

为了准确设计高压涡轮盘和叶尖间隙,从概率的角度进行了涡轮盘径向变形的分析。介绍了高精度高效率的非线性动态概率分析的极值响应面方法(Extremum Response Surface Method, ERSM),并建立了其数学模型。考虑材料属性和边界条件的非线性,以及热载荷和离心载荷的动态性,基于ERSM对涡轮盘径向变形进行了非线性动态概率分析,得到了输入输出参数的分布特征和影响涡轮盘径向动态变形的主要因素。最后,通过方法比较,验证了ERSM在保证计算精度的前提下能大大提高计算速度,节约计算时间,改善计算效率。为进行更有效的涡轮盘设计和优化,改善叶尖间隙设计和控制的合理性提供了有效依据。      

单多普勒天气雷达反演降水粒子垂直速度Ⅰ：算法分析

针对多普勒雷达风场反演的体积速度处理(Volume Velocity Processing,VVP)方法中系数矩阵的病态问题,从数学上进行了分析和论证,对反演的误差进行了敏感性分析,并对垂直速度的求解方程作了改进。系数矩阵的条件数将随着待反演参量的不同而差别很大,通常的处理方法是舍弃量级较小的参量,通过对误差范数的分析,证明这种处理尽管存在模型误差,但能够降低求解难度和结果误差。对系数矩阵病态原因的分析发现,系数矩阵矢量的线性相关造成了矩阵奇异,当合并或舍弃线性相关项时,待反演参量会受模型误差的影响,并且这种模型误差的大小并不仅与待反演参量的量级有关,而且随着位置的不同而改变,但是部分待参量仍然可以保持准确值。在对VVP算法误差分析的基础上,分析并验证了舍弃部分参量时的反演误差,改进的算法为准确反演降水粒子的垂直速度提供了理论基础。     

Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO₂ levels and related considerations of geological CO₂ storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO₂ levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.     

Comparative performances of eggs and embryos of sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus) in toxicity bioassays used for assessment of marine sediment quality

The potential toxicity of sediments from various ports was assessed by means of two different liquid-phase toxicity bioassays (acute and chronic) with embryos and eggs of sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Performances of embryos and eggs of P. lividus in these bioassays were compared for their interchangeable applicability in integrated sediment quality assessment. The obtained endpoints (percentages of normally developed plutei and fertilized eggs) were linked to physical and chemical properties of sediments and demonstrated dependence on sediment contamination. The endpoints in the two bioassays were strongly correlated and generally exhibited similar tendency throughout the samples. Therein, embryos demonstrated higher sensitivity to elutriate exposure, compared to eggs. It was concluded that these tests could be used interchangeably for testing toxicity of marine sediments. Preferential use of any of the bioassays can be determined by the discriminatory capacity of the test or vulnerability consideration of the test subject to the surrounding conditions.     

Marine spatial planning and oil spill risk analysis: Finding common grounds

A flow of key information links marine spatial planning (MSP) and oil spill risk analysis (OSRA), two distinct processes needed to achieve true sustainable management of coastal and marine areas. OSRA informs MSP on areas of high risk to oil spills allowing a redefinition of planning objectives and the relocation of activities to increase the ecosystem’s overall utility and resilience. Concomitantly, MSP continuously generates a large amount of data that is vital to OSRA. The Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) mapping system emerges as an operational tool to implement the MSP–OSRA link. Given the high level of commonalities between ESI and MSP data (both in biophysical and human dimensions), ESI tools (both paper maps and dynamic GIS-based product) are easily developed to further inform MSP and oil spill risk management. Finally, several other benefits from implementing the MSP–OSRA link are highlighted.     

Modelling a discrete spatial response using generalized linear mixed models: application to Lyme disease vectors

Predicting disease risk by identifying environmental factors responsible for the geographical distribution of disease vectors can help target control strategies and optimize preventive measures. In this study we present a hierarchical approach to model the distribution of Lyme disease ticks as a function of environmental factors. We use the Poisson framework natural for count data while allowing for spatial correlations. To help identify environmental factors that best explain tick abundance, we develop an intuitive procedure for covariate selection in the spatial context. These methods could be useful in analysing effects of environmental and climatological changes on the distribution of disease vectors, and the spatial extrapolation of vector abundance under such scenarios.