An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

Structural elements of the Makran region, Oman sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenisis

The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain, the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System.     

新疆黑英山-查汗沙拉-地那达坂地区锑矿成矿远景评价

我国西天山南段的黑英山-查汗沙拉-地那达坂锑多金属矿化区为中亚南天山成矿带的东延部分,区内广泛分布有泥盆系滨浅海含碳碎屑岩和碳酸盐岩,岩石具有较高的Sb背景场,异常多呈Sb、Au、As、Hg等元素组合异常出现,异常区内已发现有查汗沙拉、阿特达坂和地那达坂等多个锑矿(点)床.区内锑矿化及异常均受近Nw向大型逆冲推覆构造系统控制,具有良好的成矿条件和较大的找矿潜力.     

攀西地区铂族元素地球化学异常分布及其筛选

攀西地区不同时代地层的水系沉积物中铂族元素地球化学背景值具有明显的规律性分布.笔者通过对该地区铂族元素含量在各地层中的分布以及地球化学异常的圈定、归并和分类,结合有关铂族矿床地球化学特征的认识,通过对水系沉积物中Pt、Pd综合异常的筛选,在铂族元素综合衬值异常图的基础上共划分出Ⅰ类异常4个、Ⅱ类异常19个、Ⅲ类异常23个以及Ⅳ类异常14个.初步筛选出的19个Ⅱ类异常子区可为进一步开展铂族矿床找矿工作提供依据.     

中国滑坡预测预报研究综述

滑坡预测预报是有效预防滑坡灾害的重要途径之一,这方面的研究不仅受到广泛重视,且硕果累累。将中国滑坡预测预报的研究历史划分为四个阶段：① 经验判断——被动防灾避灾阶段;② 定性——半定量分析预测预报阶段;③ 理论方法探索——检验预测预报阶段;④ 理论方法深化——综合应用预测预报阶段。从监测（观测）方法、预测预报方法,以及研究特点等方面进行简要回顾,总结已有监测方法（手段）、预测预报理论、方法的研究现状,认为尚存在：① 监测方法（手段）,包括仪器、设备的精度不足;② 预测预报方法综合性、实用性不强;③ 预测预报专门理论尚待完善等问题。在分析的基础上,提出自己的观点,并进行了发展趋势展望。     

渤海湾盆地新生界生油岩系底界面温度分布

依据渤海湾盆地2000余口测温井的地温梯度数据、地层岩性描述、分层数据以及钻井资料,计算了该盆地各生油岩系底界面的温度。统计结果表明:渤海湾盆地沙河街组大部分凹陷区地层底界面温度介于90℃至150℃,目前仍具有大量生油的温度条件,而在隆起或一些凸起地区,该地层组段温度普遍小于90℃,未能达到生油的温度指标。东营组和孔店组地层也仍具有一定的生油温度条件。研究还表明:地层温度与地层界面埋深密切相关,温度随界面埋深的增大而升高,沉积厚度大的凹陷区地层界面温度大于沉积厚度小的凸起区或斜坡地带,说明地层界面埋深是决定地温高低的主要控制因素,而地温梯度对地层界面温度的影响相对较小。     

Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.     

钱二块铀矿床采铀注液结垢趋势的理论分析与预测

用离子系数矩阵法对钱二块铀矿床地浸采铀试验注液中存在的独立离子反应进行了确定,由溶度积规则及反应平衡原理,借助Matlab编程,估算出了钱二块铀矿床地浸采铀试验注液可能会生成的沉淀物种类及数量,为防治结垢提供了一定的理论依据.     

基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究

需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度.     

Linear magnetic anomalies and tectonic development of the middle Okinawa Trough

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