中国地震台网各类前兆手段地震监测能力的评价

利用1988～2005年18年间全国会商会所提出的各类定点前兆异常,研究其与下一年(1989～2006年)大陆地震的对应关系,从414次地震资料的统计中得出,除地下水位和地磁外,其它5种前兆观测手段在有震区的异常比均低于无震区或全大陆的异常比,但各手段综合异常比在有震区要高于无震区。遵照"地震监测能力好的前兆手段,在其监测范围内,有震时应有较高的异常比,无震时应有较低的异常比"的原则,我们认为地磁和地下水位是比较好的前兆观测方法。     

新疆巴楚-伽师6.8级地震极灾区砖结构房屋震害特点及分析

重点介绍了新疆巴楚—伽师6.8级地震极灾区琼库尔恰克乡政府所在地砖结构房屋的破坏情况。选择有代表性的建筑物,根据现场测绘、调查的资料,从建筑、结构及施工等方面参照相关国家标准分析震害原因,总结抗震经验,提出满足抗震设计一般规定和采取简单构造措施,即能保障砖结构房屋的抗震性能。     

Non-linear seismic behavior of structures with limited hysteretic energy dissipation capacity

This paper investigates the non-linear seismic behavior of structures such as slender unreinforced masonry shear walls or precast post-tensioned reinforced concrete elements, which have little hysteretic energy dissipation capacity. Even if this type of seismic response may be associated with significant deformation capacity, it is usually not considered as an efficient mechanism to withstand strong earthquakes. The objective of the investigations is to propose values of strength reduction factors for seismic analysis of such structures. The first part of the study is focused on non-linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems. A parametric study is performed by computing the displacement ductility demand of non-linear SDOF systems for a set of 164 recorded ground motions selected from the European Strong Motion Database. The parameters investigated are the natural frequency, the strength reduction factor, the post-yield stiffness ratio, the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity and the hysteretic behavior model (four different hysteretic models: bilinear self-centring, with limited or without energy dissipation capacity, modified Takeda and Elastoplastic). Results confirm that the natural frequency has little influence on the displacement ductility demand if it is below a frequency limit and vice versa. The frequency limit is found to be around 2 Hz for all hysteretic models. Moreover, they show that the other parameters, especially the hysteretic behavior model, have little influence on the displacement ductility demand. New relationships between the displacement ductility demand and the strength reduction factor for structures having little hysteretic energy dissipation capacity are proposed. These relationships are an improvement of the equal displacement rule for the considered hysteretic models. In the second part of the investigation, the parametric study is extended to multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) systems. The investigation shows that the results obtained for SDOF systems are also valid for MDOF systems. However, the SDOF system overestimates the displacement ductility demand in comparison to the corresponding MDOF system by approximately 15%.     

Characteristics of Seismic Activity in a 3-Dimensional Space before the Wen'an Earthquake,Hebei Province by Relocation of Small Earthquakes in the China's Capital Area

Characteristics of seismic activity before the M5.1 earthquake in Wen'an,Hebei Province on July 4,2006 are analyzed by relocation of small earthquakes in the China's capital area,and some results are obtained as follows:① The seismic activity of M L ≥3.0 in the middle part of the Hebei plain seismic belt displayed a feature of strengthening (lasting 43 months) quiescence (17 months) five years before the Wen'an earthquake.Simultaneously,the strain release curve showed a variation process of accelerating-flatting.② A seismogenic gap in a three-dimensional space,located at the depth of 15km ～ 20km,with 70km long in latitude direction and 90km long in longitude orientation,was formed by M≥2.0 earthquakes four years prior to the Wen'an earthquake.The initial rupture point of the Wen'an earthquake is situated at the bottom of the gap.③ The focal depths of earthquakes with M L ≥2.0 in the middle part of the Hebei plain seismic belt gradually increased from 10km to 30km during the period from April,2003 to October,2004.Meanwhile,the seismic activity obviously strengthened in the middle and lower crust (from 20km to 30km in depth).     

液化场地桩-土地震相互作用p-y曲线分析方法研究

目前,我国尚缺乏液化场地桩-土-桥梁结构地震相互作用分析的合理数值模型与简化分析方法。鉴于此,直接针对振动台试验,基于非线性文克尔地基梁模型,考虑桩周参振土的质量惯性力、上部结构的惯性力、土体辐射阻尼等效应,建立了液化场地桩-土-桥梁结构地震相互作用的p-y曲线分析模型,并给出相应的简化方法。针对振动台试验进行了0.1g El Centro波输入下的分析,验证了桩-土地震相互作用分析方法的正确性,并且推荐了计算参数的合理选取方法,可用于液化场地桩-土地震相互作用的分析。提出的液化场地桩-土地震相互作用p-y曲线简化分析方法,为实际桥梁桩基抗震设计与分析提供一定参考。     

Wavelet and Neuro‐fuzzy Conjunction Approach for Suspended Sediment Prediction

Simulation approaches employed in suspended sediment processes are important in the areas of water resources and environmental engineering. In the current study, neuro‐fuzzy (NF), a combination of wavelet transform and neuro‐fuzzy (WNF), multi linear regression (MLR), and the conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) models were considered for suspended sediment load (S) modeling in a gauging station in the USA. In the proposed WNF model, the discrete wavelet analysis was linked to a NF approach. To achieve this aim, the observed time series of river flow discharge (Q) and S were decomposed to sub time series at different scales by discrete wavelet transform. Afterwards, the effective sub time series were added together to obtain a useful Q and S time series for prediction. Eventually, the obtained total time series were imposed as inputs to the NF method for daily S prediction. The results illustrated that the predicted values by the proposed WNF model were in good agreement with the observed S values and gave better results than other models. Furthermore, the WNF model satisfactorily estimated the cumulative suspended sediment load and produced relatively reasonable predictions for extreme values of S, while NF, MLR, and SRC models provided unacceptable predictions.     

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

灾害风险科学与灾害易损性研究实践

在收集、整理和编译国外有关论坛和研讨会资料的基础上,给出了目前国际风险科学研究的动态,综述了地震灾害风险评估和减轻地震易损性方面的研究进展,介绍了目前有关国家的地震灾害风险减轻的理论研究和减灾计划与行动。     

提高地震科技期刊审读的实效性浅议

针对目前期刊审读要求制度化的现状,探讨了提高地震科技期刊审读实效性的途径。期刊刊前和刊后审读要抓薄弱环节,内部和外部审读要有的放矢;科技期刊的审读内容有别于社科类期刊,不同的审读内容就有不同的审读主体和审读方法。审读效果的好坏与审读者的专业水平、知识结构甚至心理素质等息息相关。