Crustal structure of the Eastern Alps along the TRANSALP profile from wide-angle seismic tomography

The objective of the TRANSALP project is an investigation of the Eastern Alps with regard to their deep structure and dynamic evolution. The core of the project is a 340-km-long seismic profile at 12°E between Munich and Venice. This paper deals with the P-wave velocity distribution as derived from active source travel time tomography. Our database consists of Vibroseis and explosion seismic travel times recorded at up to 100 seismological stations distributed in a 30-km-wide corridor along the profile. In order to derive a velocity and reflector model, we simultaneously inverted refractions and reflections using a derivative of a damped least squares approach for local earthquake tomography. 8000 travel time picks from dense Vibroseis recordings provide the basis for high resolution in the upper crust. Explosion seismic wide-angle reflection travel times constrain both deeper crustal velocities and structure of the crust–mantle boundary with low resolution. In the resulting model, the Adriatic crust shows significantly higher P-wave velocities than the European crust. The European Moho is dipping south at an angle of 7°. The Adriatic Moho dips north with a gentle inclination at shallower depths. This geometry suggests S-directed subduction. Azimuthal variations of the first-break velocities as well as observations of shear wave splitting reveal strong anisotropy in the Tauern Window. We explain this finding by foliations and laminations generated by lateral extrusion. Based on the P-wave model we also localized almost 100 local earthquakes recorded during the 2-month acquisition campaign in 1999. Seismicity patterns in the North seem related to the Inn valley shear zone, and to thrusting of Austroalpine units over European basement. The alignment of deep seismicity in the Trento-Vicenza region with the top of the Adriatic lower crust corroborates the suggestion of a deep thrust fault in the Southern Alps.     

Upper mantle structure of the Northern Eurasia from peaceful nuclear explosion data

Several long-range seismic profiles were carried out in Russia with Peaceful Nuclear Explosions (PNE). The data from 25 PNEs recorded along these profiles were used to compile a 3-D upper mantle velocity model for the central part of the Northern Eurasia. 2-D crust and upper mantle models were also constructed for all profiles using a common methodology for wavefield interpretation. Five basic boundaries were traced over the study area: N1 boundary (velocity level, V = 8.35 km/s; depth interval, D = 60–130 km), N2 (V = 8.4 km/s; D = 100–140 km), L (V = 8.5 km/s; D = 180–240 km) and H (V = 8.6 km/s; D = 300–330 km) and structural maps were compiled for each boundary. Together these boundaries describe a 3-D upper mantle model for northern Eurasia. A map characterised the velocity distribution in the uppermost mantle down to a depth of 60 km is also presented. Mostly horizontal inhomogeneity is observed in the uppermost mantle, and the velocities range from the average 8.0–8.1 km/s to 8.3–8.4 km/s in some blocks of the Siberian Craton. At a depth of 100–200 km, the local high velocity blocks disappear and only three large anomalies are observed: lower velocities in West Siberia and higher velocities in the East-European platform and in the central part of the Siberian Craton. In contrast, the depths to the H boundary are greater beneath the craton and lower beneath in the West Siberian Platform. A correlation between tectonics, geophysical fields and crustal structure is observed. In general, the old and cold cratons have higher velocities in the mantle than the young platforms with higher heat flows.Structural peculiarities of the upper mantle are difficult to describe in form of classical lithosphere–asthenosphere system. The asthenosphere cannot be traced from the seismic data; in contrary the lithosphere is suggested to be rheologically stratified. All the lithospheric boundaries are not simple discontinuities, they are heterogeneous (thin layering) zones which generate multiphase reflections. Many of them may be a result of fluids concentrated at some critical P–T conditions which produce rheologically weak zones. The most visible rheological variations are observed at depths of around 100 and 250 km.     

Seismic lamination and anisotropy of the Lower Continental Crust

Seismic lamination in the lower crust associated with marked anisotropy has been observed at various locations. Three of these locations were investigated by specially designed experiments in the near vertical and in the wide-angle range, that is the Urach and the Black Forrest area, both belonging to the Moldanubian, a collapsed Variscan terrane in southern Germany, and in the Donbas Basin, a rift inside the East European (Ukrainian) craton. In these three cases, a firm relationship between lower crust seismic lamination and anisotropy is found. There are more cases of lower-crustal lamination and anisotropy, e.g. from the Basin and Range province (western US) and from central Tibet, not revealed by seismic wide-angle measurements, but by teleseismic receiver function studies with a P–S conversion at the Moho. Other cases of lamination and anisotropy are from exhumed lower crustal rocks in Calabria (southern Italy), and Val Sesia and Val Strona (Ivrea area, Northern Italy). We demonstrate that rocks in the lower continental crust, apart from differing in composition, differ from the upper mantle both in terms of seismic lamination (observed in the near-vertical range) and in the type of anisotropy. Compared to upper mantle rocks exhibiting mainly orthorhombic symmetry, the symmetry of the rocks constituting the lower crust is either axial or orthorhombic and basically a result of preferred crystallographic orientation of major minerals (biotite, muscovite, hornblende). We argue that the generation of seismic lamination and anisotropy in the lower crust is a consequence of the same tectonic process, that is, ductile deformation in a warm and low-viscosity lower crust. This process takes place preferably in areas of extension. Heterogeneous rock units are formed that are generally felsic in composition, but that contain intercalations of mafic intrusions. The latter have acted as heat sources and provide the necessary seismic impedance contrasts. The observed seismic anisotropy is attributed to lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of major minerals, in particular of mica and hornblende, but also of olivine. A transversely isotropic symmetry system, such as expected for sub-horizontal layering, is found in only half of the field studies. Azimuthal anisotropy is encountered in the rest of the cases. This indicates differences in the horizontal components of tectonic strain, which finally give rise to differences in the evolution of the rock fabric.     

Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.     

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Some Observations on the Use of Data from Historical Documents in Debris-Flow Studies

The knowledge of past events is important for the assessment of debris-flow hazard. Amongst the sources of information, documents from historical archives are particularly important in sites where the debris flows cause damage to urban areas and transportation routes. The paper analyses the availability of historical documents on debris flows in Northeastern Italy and discusses factors that can influence the building of time series from archive data both at regional and single basin scales. An increased number of debris flows was observed in the studied region for the last decades. This could be due both to an increased frequency of the events and to a larger availability of information: the analysis carried out indicates that the latter factor is probably the most influencing. The importance of factors, which affect the collection of data, including the conservation of documents and the presence and fragility of the elements at risk, is stressed in view of a wise use of historical data on debris flows.     

地震快报系统

本文简述了开发地震快报系统的主要技术。     

Structure and tectonic evolution of the Southern Eurasia Basin, Arctic Ocean

Multichannel seismic reflection data acquired by Marine Arctic Geological Expedition (MAGE) of Murmansk, Russia in 1990 provide the first view of the geological structure of the Arctic region between 77–80°N and 115–133°E, where the Eurasia Basin of the Arctic Ocean adjoins the passive-transform continental margin of the Laptev Sea. South of 80°N, the oceanic basement of the Eurasia Basin and continental basement of the Laptev Sea outer margin are covered by 1.5 to 8 km of sediments. Two structural sequences are distinguished in the sedimentary cover within the Laptev Sea outer margin and at the continent/ocean crust transition: the lower rift sequence, including mostly Upper Cretaceous to Lower Paleocene deposits, and the upper post-rift sequence, consisting of Cenozoic sediments. In the adjoining Eurasia Basin of the Arctic Ocean, the Cenozoic post-rift sequence consists of a few sedimentary successions deposited by several submarine fans. Based on the multichannel seismic reflection data, the structural pattern was determined and an isopach map of the sedimentary cover and tectonic zoning map were constructed. A location of the continent/ocean crust transition is tentatively defined. A buried continuation of the mid-ocean Gakkel Ridge is also detected. This study suggests that south of 78.5°N there was the cessation in the tectonic activity of the Gakkel Ridge Rift from 33–30 until 3–1 Ma and there was no sea-floor spreading in the southernmost part of the Eurasia Basin during the last 30–33 m.y. South of 78.5°N all oceanic crust of the Eurasia Basin near the continental margin of the Laptev Sea was formed from 56 to 33–30 Ma.     

Interpretation of seismic and potential field data from western New York State and Lake Ontario

Lithoprobe and industry seismic profiles have furnished evidence of major zones of easterly dipping Grenville deformed crust extending southwest from exposed Grenville rocks north of Lake Ontario. Additional constraints on subsurface structure limited to the postulated Clarendon–Linden fault system south of Lake Ontario are provided by five east–west reflection lines recorded in 1976. Spatial correlations between seismic structure and magnetic anomalies are described from both Lake Ontario and the newly reprocessed New York lines.In the Paleozoic to Precambrian upper crust, the New York seismic sections show: (1) An easterly thickening wedge of subhorizontal Paleozoic strata unconformably overlying a Precambrian basement whose surface has an apparent regional easterly dip of 1–2°. Minor apparent normal offsets, possibly on the order of tens of meters, occur within the Paleozoic section. The generally poorly reflective unconformity may be locally characterized by topographic relief on the order of 100 m; (2) Apparent local displacement on the order of 90 m at the level of the Black River Group diminishes upward to little or no apparent offset of Queenston Shale; (3) Within the limited seismic sections, there appears to be no evidence that the complete upper crustal section is vertically or subvertically offset; (4) Dipping structure in the Paleozoic strata (15° to 35°) resembles some underlying Precambrian basement elements; (5) The surface continuity of inferred faults constituting the Clarendon–Linden system is not strongly supported by the seismic data.Beneath the Paleozoic strata, the seismic sections show both linear and arcuate reflector geometry with easterly apparent dips of 15° to 35° similar to the deep structures imaged on seismic lines from nearby Lake Ontario and on Lithoprobe lines to the north. The similarity supports an extension of easterly dipping Central Metasedimentary Belt structures of the Grenville orogen from southern Ontario to beneath western New York State.From a comparison of the magnetic and gravity fields with the New York seismic sections, we suggest: (1) The largely nonmagnetic Paleozoic strata appear to contribute negligibly to magnetic anomalies. Seismically imaged fractures in the New York Paleozoic strata appear to lie mainly west of a positive gravity anomaly. The relationship between magnetic and gravity anomalies and the changes in the geometry of interpreted Precambrian structures remains enigmatic; (2) North to northeast trending curvilinear magnetic and gravity anomalies parallel, but are not restricted to the principal trend of the postulated Clarendon–Linden fault system. Paleozoic fractures of the Clarendon–Linden system may partly overlie a southward extension of the Composite Arc Belt boundary zone.