弹性波的三维有限元模拟

本文讨论了弹性波瞬态传播问题的三维有限元计算方法及当前存在的实际困难.针对要求计算机内存大和计算时间长的问题,采取了改进措施.由于采用了集中质量矩阵和修正的中心差分时间积分显格式相结合的方法,可以使计算机内存和计算时间大为减少;由于采用结点定位法,最适合用于目前发展的并行计算机系统,可使计算速度大大增快;还采用了有效激发震源法,有效激发区是随时间步进的增加而逐步增大,这不仅能节省计算时间,而且使波场的传播过程一目了然,本文计算了由两种介质组成的三维楔形问题,得到若干典型剖面的瞬时波场图及随时间变化的合成地震图.     

预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

库姆塔格沙漠"羽毛状沙丘"形态的示量特征

通过卫星照片判读和实地观测,库姆塔格沙漠的“羽毛状沙丘”由两种风沙地貌构成：东北-西南走向的新月形“沙垄”为“羽轴”；垄间分布的波状微起伏的“大沙波”为“羽枝”,“大沙波”与沙垄的夹角为75°～103°。二者组合成类似“羽毛”的风沙地貌。新月形“沙垄”由单个新月形沙丘的前一沙丘的迎风坡与后一沙丘东翼相连构成“沙垄”。组成“沙垄”的新月形沙丘的两翼平均长37．5m,翼间距30～66m,沙丘高3～19m；在所观测区域内,沙丘沙的分选性由南向北变差。新月形“沙垄”长为3～22km,垄间距为1～3km,其问分布浅色和暗色相间的波状微地貌,暗色部分平均宽24．3m,浅色部分的平均宽11．6m。暗色部分表层沙粒的粒径有60%在1．00～0．25mm之间,以暗色矿物为主,而浅色部分表层沙粒的粒径的90%在1．00～0．25mm之间,分选性相对暗色部分较好,以石英等浅色矿物为主。暗色和浅色微地貌成对出现,相对高差约7cm。这种波状微地貌在库姆塔格沙漠中北部重复出现,类似于风沙地貌分类的沙波,暂称其为“大沙波”。     

TRANSALP—deep crustal Vibroseis and explosive seismic profiling in the Eastern Alps

The TRANSALP consortium, comprising institutions from Italy, Austria and Germany, carried out deep seismic reflection measurements in the Eastern Alps between Munich and Venice in 1998, 1999 and 2001. In order to complement each other in resolution and depth range, the Vibroseis technique was combined with simultaneous explosive source measurements. Additionally, passive cross-line recording provided three-dimensional control and alternative north–south sections. Profits were obtained by the combination of the three methods in sectors or depths where one method alone was less successful.The TRANSALP sections clearly image a thin-skinned wedge of tectonic nappes at the northern Alpine front zone, unexpected graben or half-graben structures within the European basement, and, thick-skinned back-thrusting in the southern frontal zone beneath the Dolomite Mountains. A bi-vergent structure at crustal scale is directed from the Alpine axis to the external parts. The Tauern Window obviously forms the hanging wall ramp anticline above a southward dipping, deep reaching reflection pattern interpreted as a tectonic ramp along which the Penninic units of the Tauern Window have been up-thrusted.The upper crystalline crust appears generally transparent. The lower crust in the European domain is characterized by a 6–7 km thick laminated structure. On the Adriatic side the lower crust displays a much thicker or twofold reflective pattern. The crustal root at about 55 km depth is shifted around 50 km to the south with respect to the main Alpine crest.     

Seismic activity associated with the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate beneath the Kanto district, Japan

The Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea plate overlap and subduct underneath the Kanto region, central Japan, causing complex seismic activities in the upper mantle. In this research, we used a map selection tool with a graphic display to create a data set for earthquakes caused by the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate that are easily determined. As a result, we determined that there are at least four earthquake groups present in the upper mantle above the Pacific plate. Major seismic activity (Group 1) has been observed throughout the Kanto region and is considered to originate in the uppermost part of mantle in the subducted Philippine Sea plate, judging from the formation of the focal region and comparison with the 3D structure of seismic velocity. The focal mechanism of these earthquakes is characterized by the down-dip compression. A second earthquake layer characterized by down-dip extension (Group 2), below the earthquakes in this group, is also noted. The focal region for those earthquakes is considered to be located at the lower part of the slab mantle, and the Pacific plate located directly below is considered to influence the activity. Earthquakes located at the shallowest part (Group 3) form a few clusters distributed directly above the Group 1 focal region. Judging from the characteristics of later phases in these earthquakes and comparing against the 3D structure of seismic velocity, the focal regions for the earthquakes are considered to be located near the upper surface of the slab. Another earthquake group (Group 4) originates further below Group 2; it is difficult to consider these earthquakes within a single slab. The seismic activities representing the upper area of the Philippine Sea plate are Group 3. This paper proposes a slab geometry model that is substantially different from conventional models by strictly differentiating the groups.     

Temporal behavior of the background seismicity rate in central Japan, 1998 to mid-2003

We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock.     

Crustal structure of the Eastern Alps along the TRANSALP profile from wide-angle seismic tomography

The objective of the TRANSALP project is an investigation of the Eastern Alps with regard to their deep structure and dynamic evolution. The core of the project is a 340-km-long seismic profile at 12°E between Munich and Venice. This paper deals with the P-wave velocity distribution as derived from active source travel time tomography. Our database consists of Vibroseis and explosion seismic travel times recorded at up to 100 seismological stations distributed in a 30-km-wide corridor along the profile. In order to derive a velocity and reflector model, we simultaneously inverted refractions and reflections using a derivative of a damped least squares approach for local earthquake tomography. 8000 travel time picks from dense Vibroseis recordings provide the basis for high resolution in the upper crust. Explosion seismic wide-angle reflection travel times constrain both deeper crustal velocities and structure of the crust–mantle boundary with low resolution. In the resulting model, the Adriatic crust shows significantly higher P-wave velocities than the European crust. The European Moho is dipping south at an angle of 7°. The Adriatic Moho dips north with a gentle inclination at shallower depths. This geometry suggests S-directed subduction. Azimuthal variations of the first-break velocities as well as observations of shear wave splitting reveal strong anisotropy in the Tauern Window. We explain this finding by foliations and laminations generated by lateral extrusion. Based on the P-wave model we also localized almost 100 local earthquakes recorded during the 2-month acquisition campaign in 1999. Seismicity patterns in the North seem related to the Inn valley shear zone, and to thrusting of Austroalpine units over European basement. The alignment of deep seismicity in the Trento-Vicenza region with the top of the Adriatic lower crust corroborates the suggestion of a deep thrust fault in the Southern Alps.     

Upper mantle structure of the Northern Eurasia from peaceful nuclear explosion data

Several long-range seismic profiles were carried out in Russia with Peaceful Nuclear Explosions (PNE). The data from 25 PNEs recorded along these profiles were used to compile a 3-D upper mantle velocity model for the central part of the Northern Eurasia. 2-D crust and upper mantle models were also constructed for all profiles using a common methodology for wavefield interpretation. Five basic boundaries were traced over the study area: N1 boundary (velocity level, V = 8.35 km/s; depth interval, D = 60–130 km), N2 (V = 8.4 km/s; D = 100–140 km), L (V = 8.5 km/s; D = 180–240 km) and H (V = 8.6 km/s; D = 300–330 km) and structural maps were compiled for each boundary. Together these boundaries describe a 3-D upper mantle model for northern Eurasia. A map characterised the velocity distribution in the uppermost mantle down to a depth of 60 km is also presented. Mostly horizontal inhomogeneity is observed in the uppermost mantle, and the velocities range from the average 8.0–8.1 km/s to 8.3–8.4 km/s in some blocks of the Siberian Craton. At a depth of 100–200 km, the local high velocity blocks disappear and only three large anomalies are observed: lower velocities in West Siberia and higher velocities in the East-European platform and in the central part of the Siberian Craton. In contrast, the depths to the H boundary are greater beneath the craton and lower beneath in the West Siberian Platform. A correlation between tectonics, geophysical fields and crustal structure is observed. In general, the old and cold cratons have higher velocities in the mantle than the young platforms with higher heat flows.Structural peculiarities of the upper mantle are difficult to describe in form of classical lithosphere–asthenosphere system. The asthenosphere cannot be traced from the seismic data; in contrary the lithosphere is suggested to be rheologically stratified. All the lithospheric boundaries are not simple discontinuities, they are heterogeneous (thin layering) zones which generate multiphase reflections. Many of them may be a result of fluids concentrated at some critical P–T conditions which produce rheologically weak zones. The most visible rheological variations are observed at depths of around 100 and 250 km.     

Seismic lamination and anisotropy of the Lower Continental Crust

Seismic lamination in the lower crust associated with marked anisotropy has been observed at various locations. Three of these locations were investigated by specially designed experiments in the near vertical and in the wide-angle range, that is the Urach and the Black Forrest area, both belonging to the Moldanubian, a collapsed Variscan terrane in southern Germany, and in the Donbas Basin, a rift inside the East European (Ukrainian) craton. In these three cases, a firm relationship between lower crust seismic lamination and anisotropy is found. There are more cases of lower-crustal lamination and anisotropy, e.g. from the Basin and Range province (western US) and from central Tibet, not revealed by seismic wide-angle measurements, but by teleseismic receiver function studies with a P–S conversion at the Moho. Other cases of lamination and anisotropy are from exhumed lower crustal rocks in Calabria (southern Italy), and Val Sesia and Val Strona (Ivrea area, Northern Italy). We demonstrate that rocks in the lower continental crust, apart from differing in composition, differ from the upper mantle both in terms of seismic lamination (observed in the near-vertical range) and in the type of anisotropy. Compared to upper mantle rocks exhibiting mainly orthorhombic symmetry, the symmetry of the rocks constituting the lower crust is either axial or orthorhombic and basically a result of preferred crystallographic orientation of major minerals (biotite, muscovite, hornblende). We argue that the generation of seismic lamination and anisotropy in the lower crust is a consequence of the same tectonic process, that is, ductile deformation in a warm and low-viscosity lower crust. This process takes place preferably in areas of extension. Heterogeneous rock units are formed that are generally felsic in composition, but that contain intercalations of mafic intrusions. The latter have acted as heat sources and provide the necessary seismic impedance contrasts. The observed seismic anisotropy is attributed to lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of major minerals, in particular of mica and hornblende, but also of olivine. A transversely isotropic symmetry system, such as expected for sub-horizontal layering, is found in only half of the field studies. Azimuthal anisotropy is encountered in the rest of the cases. This indicates differences in the horizontal components of tectonic strain, which finally give rise to differences in the evolution of the rock fabric.     

Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.