Comparison of two methods for seismic hazard assessment in a low-seismicity area

The EGO method, developed by Egozcue et al. and the SRAMSC method, originally developed by Cornell and later programmed by McGuire, to assess the seismic hazard, are compared for the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands, and NW Germany. Using the same input data, the results of the EGO method without the majority criterion and the SRAMSC method with upper bound XII agree very well. The influence of the zoning is investigated for the EGO method. It is not necessary to define the zones for the EGO method so strictly as for the SRAMSC method, but too wide zones can give bad results.     

中国三个大地震的震源参数及讨论

大地震的震源机制及地震矩、应力降等参数,不(又对认识地震的破裂过程,而且对预报强地面运动都是非常重要的。一些文章对板内地震应力降的特点、地震矩与高频源谱的关系及区域特征的讨论,使我们可直接由长周期体波或面波得出的地震矩M₀估计出不同地区中大地震的高频源谱,以供强地面运动预报参考。 由于对发生在中国板内的1976年11月6日盐源地震（M_s=6.5）和1976年11月15日宁河地震（M_s=6.3）的震源参数还没有详尽的报道;另外,对1973年7月14日     

半干旱区高效生态农业发展问题及对策研究——以陇东黄土高原环县为例

生态农业是当今农业发展的方向。也是区域农业高效发展的必由之路，环县农业存在结构不合理，产业化进程缓慢，生产基础薄弱，生态环境恶化等问题。欲使生态农业高效发展，应把资源、环境与农业经济发展结合起来，采取调整产业结构、建立高效生态农业发展模式、加快龙头企业的发展、加大资金和科技投入、保护和改善生态环境等措施。     

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

TRANSALP—deep crustal Vibroseis and explosive seismic profiling in the Eastern Alps

The TRANSALP consortium, comprising institutions from Italy, Austria and Germany, carried out deep seismic reflection measurements in the Eastern Alps between Munich and Venice in 1998, 1999 and 2001. In order to complement each other in resolution and depth range, the Vibroseis technique was combined with simultaneous explosive source measurements. Additionally, passive cross-line recording provided three-dimensional control and alternative north–south sections. Profits were obtained by the combination of the three methods in sectors or depths where one method alone was less successful.The TRANSALP sections clearly image a thin-skinned wedge of tectonic nappes at the northern Alpine front zone, unexpected graben or half-graben structures within the European basement, and, thick-skinned back-thrusting in the southern frontal zone beneath the Dolomite Mountains. A bi-vergent structure at crustal scale is directed from the Alpine axis to the external parts. The Tauern Window obviously forms the hanging wall ramp anticline above a southward dipping, deep reaching reflection pattern interpreted as a tectonic ramp along which the Penninic units of the Tauern Window have been up-thrusted.The upper crystalline crust appears generally transparent. The lower crust in the European domain is characterized by a 6–7 km thick laminated structure. On the Adriatic side the lower crust displays a much thicker or twofold reflective pattern. The crustal root at about 55 km depth is shifted around 50 km to the south with respect to the main Alpine crest.     

Seismic activity associated with the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate beneath the Kanto district, Japan

The Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea plate overlap and subduct underneath the Kanto region, central Japan, causing complex seismic activities in the upper mantle. In this research, we used a map selection tool with a graphic display to create a data set for earthquakes caused by the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate that are easily determined. As a result, we determined that there are at least four earthquake groups present in the upper mantle above the Pacific plate. Major seismic activity (Group 1) has been observed throughout the Kanto region and is considered to originate in the uppermost part of mantle in the subducted Philippine Sea plate, judging from the formation of the focal region and comparison with the 3D structure of seismic velocity. The focal mechanism of these earthquakes is characterized by the down-dip compression. A second earthquake layer characterized by down-dip extension (Group 2), below the earthquakes in this group, is also noted. The focal region for those earthquakes is considered to be located at the lower part of the slab mantle, and the Pacific plate located directly below is considered to influence the activity. Earthquakes located at the shallowest part (Group 3) form a few clusters distributed directly above the Group 1 focal region. Judging from the characteristics of later phases in these earthquakes and comparing against the 3D structure of seismic velocity, the focal regions for the earthquakes are considered to be located near the upper surface of the slab. Another earthquake group (Group 4) originates further below Group 2; it is difficult to consider these earthquakes within a single slab. The seismic activities representing the upper area of the Philippine Sea plate are Group 3. This paper proposes a slab geometry model that is substantially different from conventional models by strictly differentiating the groups.     

Temporal behavior of the background seismicity rate in central Japan, 1998 to mid-2003

We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock.     

Crustal structure of the Eastern Alps along the TRANSALP profile from wide-angle seismic tomography

The objective of the TRANSALP project is an investigation of the Eastern Alps with regard to their deep structure and dynamic evolution. The core of the project is a 340-km-long seismic profile at 12°E between Munich and Venice. This paper deals with the P-wave velocity distribution as derived from active source travel time tomography. Our database consists of Vibroseis and explosion seismic travel times recorded at up to 100 seismological stations distributed in a 30-km-wide corridor along the profile. In order to derive a velocity and reflector model, we simultaneously inverted refractions and reflections using a derivative of a damped least squares approach for local earthquake tomography. 8000 travel time picks from dense Vibroseis recordings provide the basis for high resolution in the upper crust. Explosion seismic wide-angle reflection travel times constrain both deeper crustal velocities and structure of the crust–mantle boundary with low resolution. In the resulting model, the Adriatic crust shows significantly higher P-wave velocities than the European crust. The European Moho is dipping south at an angle of 7°. The Adriatic Moho dips north with a gentle inclination at shallower depths. This geometry suggests S-directed subduction. Azimuthal variations of the first-break velocities as well as observations of shear wave splitting reveal strong anisotropy in the Tauern Window. We explain this finding by foliations and laminations generated by lateral extrusion. Based on the P-wave model we also localized almost 100 local earthquakes recorded during the 2-month acquisition campaign in 1999. Seismicity patterns in the North seem related to the Inn valley shear zone, and to thrusting of Austroalpine units over European basement. The alignment of deep seismicity in the Trento-Vicenza region with the top of the Adriatic lower crust corroborates the suggestion of a deep thrust fault in the Southern Alps.     

3-D seismic structure of the source area of the 1993 Latur, India, earthquake and its implications for rupture nucleations

The Latur earthquake (M_w 6.1) of 29 September 1993 is a rare stable continental region (SCR) earthquake that occurred on a previously unknown blind fault. In this study, we determined detailed three-dimensional (3-D) P- and S-wave velocity (V_p, V_s) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures by inverting the first P- and S-wave high-quality arrival time data from 142 aftershocks that were recorded by a network of temporary seismic stations. The source zone of the Latur earthquake shows strong lateral heterogeneities in V_p, V_s and σ structures, extending in a volume of about 90 × 90 × 15 km³. The mainshock occurred within, but near the boundary, of a low-V_p, high-V_s and low-σ zone. This suggests that the structural asperities at the mainshock hypocenter are associated with a partially fluid-saturated fractured rock in a previously unknown source zone with intersecting fault surfaces. This might have triggered the 1993 Latur mainshock and its aftershock sequence. Our results are in good agreement with other geophysical studies that suggest high conductivity and high concentration of radiogenic helium gas beneath the source zone of the Latur earthquake. Our study provides an additional evidence for the presence of fluid related anomaly at the hidden source zone of the Latur earthquake in the SCR and helps us understand the genesis of damaging earthquakes in the SCR of the world.     

Upper mantle structure of the Northern Eurasia from peaceful nuclear explosion data

Several long-range seismic profiles were carried out in Russia with Peaceful Nuclear Explosions (PNE). The data from 25 PNEs recorded along these profiles were used to compile a 3-D upper mantle velocity model for the central part of the Northern Eurasia. 2-D crust and upper mantle models were also constructed for all profiles using a common methodology for wavefield interpretation. Five basic boundaries were traced over the study area: N1 boundary (velocity level, V = 8.35 km/s; depth interval, D = 60–130 km), N2 (V = 8.4 km/s; D = 100–140 km), L (V = 8.5 km/s; D = 180–240 km) and H (V = 8.6 km/s; D = 300–330 km) and structural maps were compiled for each boundary. Together these boundaries describe a 3-D upper mantle model for northern Eurasia. A map characterised the velocity distribution in the uppermost mantle down to a depth of 60 km is also presented. Mostly horizontal inhomogeneity is observed in the uppermost mantle, and the velocities range from the average 8.0–8.1 km/s to 8.3–8.4 km/s in some blocks of the Siberian Craton. At a depth of 100–200 km, the local high velocity blocks disappear and only three large anomalies are observed: lower velocities in West Siberia and higher velocities in the East-European platform and in the central part of the Siberian Craton. In contrast, the depths to the H boundary are greater beneath the craton and lower beneath in the West Siberian Platform. A correlation between tectonics, geophysical fields and crustal structure is observed. In general, the old and cold cratons have higher velocities in the mantle than the young platforms with higher heat flows.Structural peculiarities of the upper mantle are difficult to describe in form of classical lithosphere–asthenosphere system. The asthenosphere cannot be traced from the seismic data; in contrary the lithosphere is suggested to be rheologically stratified. All the lithospheric boundaries are not simple discontinuities, they are heterogeneous (thin layering) zones which generate multiphase reflections. Many of them may be a result of fluids concentrated at some critical P–T conditions which produce rheologically weak zones. The most visible rheological variations are observed at depths of around 100 and 250 km.