调制块比在地震中期预报中的应用

从研究震前大范围的调制比异常出发,定义调制块比的概念,并研究了国内的某些震例。结果表明,调制块比平均异常时间１．２５年,平均异常开始至发震时间２．０年,平均异常结束至发震时间１．０年,调制块比异常对７级以上地震显示为高值异常特点。另外,调制块比可反映部分地震前的中期地震活动性异常。当地震孕育到中期阶段时,震源周围地区出现小震调制比异常区域增加的异常。     

The Kangding earthquake swarm of November, 2014

There was an earthquake swarm of two major events of MS6.3 and MS5.8 on the Xianshuihe fault in November, 2014. The two major earthquakes are both strike-slip events with aftershock zone along NW direction.We have analyzed the characteristics of this earthquake sequence. The b value and the h value show the significant variations in different periods before and after the MS5.8earthquake. Based on the data of historical earthquakes, we also illustrated the moderate-strong seismic activity on the Xianshuihe fault. The Kangding earthquake swarm manifests the seismic activity on Xianshuihe fault may be in the late seismic active period. The occurrence of the Kangding earthquake may be an adjustment of the strong earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault. The Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the historical earthquakes were also given in this article. The results indicate that the earthquake swarm was encouraged by the historical earthquakes since1893, especially by the MS7.5 Kangding earthquake in1955. The Coulomb failure stress changes also shows the subsequent MS5.8 earthquake was triggered by the MS6.3earthquake.     

Anomalous lithospheric structure of Northern Juan de Fuca plate — a consequence of oceanic rift propagation?

Anomalous crustal and upper mantle structure of northern Juan de Fuca plate is revealed from wide-angle seismic and gravity modelling. A 2-D velocity model is produced for refraction line II of the 1980 Vancouver Island Seismic Project (VISP80). The refraction data were recorded on three ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) deployed at the ends and middle of a 110 km line oriented parallel to the North American continental margin. The velocity model is constructed via ray tracing and conforms to first-arrival amplitude observations and travel time picks of direct, converted and reflected phases. Between sub-sediment depths of 3 to 11 km, depths normally associated with the lower crust and upper oceanic mantle, the final model shows that compressional-wave velocities decrease significantly from southeast to northwest along the profile. At sub-sediment depths of 11 km at the northwestern end of the profile, P-wave velocities are as low as 7.2 km/s. A complementary 2-D gravity model using the geometry of the velocity model and velocity–density relationships characteristic of oceanic crust is produced. The high densities required to match the gravity field indicate the presence of peridotites containing 25–30% serpentine by volume, rather than excess gabbroic crust, within the deep low velocity zone. Anomalous travel time delays and unusual reflection characteristics observed from proximal seismic refraction and reflection experiments suggest a broader zone of partially serpentinized peridotites coincident with the trace of a pseudofault. We propose that partial serpentinization of the upper mantle is a consequence of slow spreading at the tip of a propagating rift.     

Seismic stability analysis of reinforced slopes

In this paper, the seismic stability of slopes reinforced with geosynthetics is analysed within the framework of the pseudo-static approach. Calculations are conducted by applying the kinematic theorem of limit analysis. Different failure modes are considered, and for each analytical expressions are derived that enable one to readily calculate the reinforcement force required to prevent failure and the yield acceleration of slopes subjected to earthquake loading. Several results are presented in order to illustrate the influence of seismic forces on slope stability. Moreover, a suitable procedure based on the assessment of earthquake-induced permanent displacement is proposed for the design of reinforced slopes in seismically active areas.     

加利福尼亚湾温盐阶梯的发现

基于历史CTD数据和EW0210航次的部分地震测线, 在加利福尼亚湾首次发现了盐指型温盐阶梯, 并对其尺度和规模有了较为清晰的认识.经分析发现在该区域水深100~600 m范围内主要发育有层厚较大的温盐阶梯, 其中均匀混合层厚度可达几十米甚至上百米, 水平方向上连续性好, 界面处热通量主要集中在-0.1~-0.2 W·m^-2, 盐通量主要集中在-1×10^-7~-2×10^-7m·s^-1.受地形引起的内潮波或涡旋的影响, 阶梯层抖动剧烈, 上下起伏较大, 部分反射层垂向位移甚至可达80 m, 由此推测该阶梯结构可能将会被破坏.

     

Subsurface offset behaviour in velocity analysis with extended reflectivity images

Migration velocity analysis with the constant‐density acoustic wave equation can be accomplished by the focusing of extended migration images, obtained by introducing a subsurface shift in the imaging condition. A reflector in a wrong velocity model will show up as a curve in the extended image. In the correct model, it should collapse to a point. The usual approach to obtain a focused image involves a cost functional that penalizes energy in the extended image at non‐zero shift. Its minimization by a gradient‐based method should then produce the correct velocity model. Here, asymptotic analysis and numerical examples show that this method may be too sensitive to amplitude peaks at large shifts at the wrong depth and to artefacts. A more robust alternative is proposed that can be interpreted as a generalization of stack power and maximizes the energy at zero‐subsurface shift. A real‐data example is included.     

Probabilistic Approach of Coastal Defense Against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant

With the global wanning and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM).     

建筑结构监测与抗震韧性评估

建筑结构响应是有效反映结构动力特性的最直接参数,开展结构动力响应实时监测可为结构抗震韧性评估提供准确的地震动输入。本文基于非结构构件损失构建结构抗震韧性评估方法,研究确定位移敏感型和加速度敏感型非结构构件的易损性模型。选择某六层钢筋混凝土框架结构进行实时监测系统建设,基于监测数据开展结构抗震韧性评估。通过构建建筑信息模型（BIM）,并在有限元分析软件OpenSees中建立结构弹塑性分析模型,利用实时监测数据实现结构模型更新,直至监测数据与模型分析结果一致。由于实时监测数据峰值较低,结构不会发生塑性变形,因此选择10条双向非脉冲地震动模拟实时监测地震记录。根据层间位移角和楼面加速度分布,开展结构功能损失评估,得到该建筑结构的抗震韧性得分。分析表明,该结构抗震性能较好,在遭受地震破坏后,会发生非结构构件脱落,需要采取有效措施进一步提升建筑抗震韧性水平。     

毛乌素沙地东南缘全新世气候不稳定性

毛乌素沙地处于中国季风区的西北边缘,对气候变化敏感,是古气候演化和古环境变迁研究的理想场所。全新世气温回暖期,气候整体稳定但存在暖湿冷干的次级波动,不同类型沉积相组成的地层序列记录了全新世千年、百年尺度的气候不稳定性。对毛乌素沙地不同沉积序列的研究表明:(1)毛乌素沙地东南缘的沙漠/黄土边界带DLT、NB剖面粒度及Rb/Sr比值可作为气候变化的代用指标。>63 μm砂含量增加,Rb/Sr比值降低,揭示东亚冬季风增强,风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候干冷;反之,东亚夏季风增强,降水增多,风化成壤程度加大,气候暖湿。(2)毛乌素沙地东南缘沙漠/黄土边界带及低洼沟谷区年代概率密度函数的分析显示,全新世早期~8\^5 ka BP风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候表现为干冷;全新世中期8\^5 ka~3\^0 ka BP地势较高处古土壤广泛发育,地势低洼处发育湖沼相/泥炭层,但在6.0 ka BP左右存在气候转冷过程;全新世晚期3\^0 ka BP以来气候波动频繁。(3)毛乌素沙地气候变化与北大西洋冰筏冷事件、董哥洞石笋、季风边缘区湖泊、东部沙地等记录具有可对比性和相对一致性,反映出全新世千年和百年尺度上的气候变化主要受全球变化的影响,这对预测和模拟未来气候变化具有借鉴意义。     

年最大日雨量极值分布拟合与推算

采用红河州12个站近48～58年的年最大日雨量资料,用PearsonⅢ型分布、耿贝尔分布、对数正态分布等3种概率分布模型分别进行了拟合,选择拟合最好的分布模型来估算最大给定重现期极值.结果表明:3种分布均能较好地拟合年最大日雨量的分布,在红河州12个站的拟合中,有7个站用耿贝尔分布,4个站用Pearson-Ⅲ分布,1个...