Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper
tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular,
the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high
and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists
of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (εmax) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether
a physical basis for choosing εmax can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion
models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of
causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible
to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain
direct physical constraints on εmax. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice
of εmax is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated
with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between εmax and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore,
the absolute truncation level implied by εmax will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single εmax value impractical. 相似文献
Crack nucleation has been the subject of important contributions in the last two last decades. However, it seems that few attention has been granted to the case of saturated porous media. This is the question addressed in the present paper which is devoted to nucleation in traction mode. From a physical point of view, nucleation is a sudden phenomenon, so that the material response is both adiabatic and undrained. In the spirit of the variational approach, the nucleated crack is viewed as the final state of a region of space in which the material undergoes a full damage process. In traction mode, the opening of a saturated crack in undrained condition induces a drop of fluid pressure. In case of low fluid compressibility, the presence of the fluid delays the brittle failure usually associated with nucleation, as long as the fluid pressure remains above the saturation vapor pressure. Nucleation is therefore possible only if a partial vaporization of the fluid takes place. 相似文献
Two single-channel seismic (SCS) data sets collected in 2000 and 2005 were used for a four-dimensional (4D) time-lapse analysis
of an active cold vent (Bullseye Vent). The data set acquired in 2000 serves as a reference in the applied processing sequence.
The 4D processing sequence utilizes time- and phase-matching, gain adjustments and shaping filters to transform the 2005 data
set so that it is most comparable to the conditions under which the 2000 data were acquired. The cold vent is characterized
by seismic blanking, which is a result of the presence of gas hydrate in the subsurface either within coarser-grained turbidite
sands or in fractures, as well as free gas trapped in these fracture systems. The area of blanking was defined using the seismic
attributes instantaneous amplitude and similarity. Several areas were identified where blanking was reduced in 2005 relative
to 2000. But most of the centre of Bullseye Vent and the area around it were seen to be characterized by intensified blanking
in 2005. Tracing these areas of intensified blanking through the three-dimensional (3D) seismic volume defined several apparent
new flow pathways that were not seen in the 2000 data, which are interpreted as newly generated fractures/faults for upward
fluid migration. Intensified blanking is interpreted as a result of new formation of gas hydrate in the subsurface along new
fracture pathways. Areas with reduced blanking may be zones where formerly plugged fractures that had trapped some free gas
may have been opened and free gas was liberated. 相似文献
Four hurricanes impacted the reefs of Florida in 2005. In this study, we evaluate the combined impacts of hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma on a population of Acropora palmata using a newly developed video‐mosaic methodology that provides a high‐resolution, spatially accurate landscape view of the reef benthos. Storm damage to A. palmata was surprisingly limited; only 2 out of 19 colonies were removed from the study plot at Molasses Reef. The net tissue losses for those colonies that remained were only 10% and mean diameter of colonies decreased slightly from 88.4 to 79.6 cm. In contrast, the damage to the reef framework was more severe, and a large section (6 m in diameter) was dislodged, overturned, and transported to the bottom of the reef spur. The data presented here show that two‐dimensional video‐mosaic technology is well‐suited to assess the impacts of physical disturbance on coral reefs and can be used to complement existing survey methodologies. 相似文献