地震灾害情景下产业空间网络风险评估——以日本丰田汽车为例

以日本东南海地震为情景,以日本丰田汽车及其关联企业为例,基于工厂个体数据及其部件供应的拓扑和空间网络,模拟灾害风险在产业网络中扩散转移过程,建立直接损失与间接功能损失的评估模型,为产业空间网络风险评估提供新的思路和方法借鉴。结果表明：在东南海地震情景下,丰田汽车约48.1%的工厂将直接受损,其中生产设施损失约5587亿日元,厂房建筑损失约1980亿日元。由于关键工厂受损,将间接导致整个产业网络中断。在最长37日恢复情景下,将造成约9230亿日元的间接功能损失。地震灾害对丰田汽车产业网络影响显著,有必要采取有效措施进行减灾降险。     

Evaluating the influence of mixture composition on the kinetics of salt damage in wall paintings using time lapse video imaging with direct data annotation

This paper presents an examination of the timescale of phase transition behaviour of a series of salts known to cause damage to wall paintings and other cultural property. The rate of deliquescence and crystallisation of single salts (nitromagnesite and halite) under different RH regimes, and the extent to which this was affected when mixed with other salts (niter, nitratite and gypsum), was investigated. The study was conducted using simple conventional techniques (mass measurements over time) and also using an innovative new method: timelapse video imaging with online data annotation. The results demonstrate the synergy gained from combining video imaging with environmental data in reference to time in the study of salt phase changes: where it revealed new information concerning the kinetics of deliquescence and crystallisation. The implications of these results for the implementation of environmental control measures within historic buildings are discussed.

地震层析成像反演中3种广义解的误差分析与评价

在地震波速度和地震波　值层析成像中,对于非线性反演问题解的可靠性研究非常重要．为了讨论ＡＲＴ（ＡｌｇｅｂｒａｉｃＲｅｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎ　Ｔｅｃｈｎｉｑｕｅ）、ＳＶＤ（Ｓｉｎｇｕｌａｒ　ＶａｌｕｅＤｅｃｏｍｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎ）、ＬＳＱＷ（ＬｅａｓｔＳｕａｒｅ）３种方法的算法稳定性以及反演效果,本研究将这３种算法用于求解非常病态问题和一般稳定问题,根据数值计算结果,分别给出了在非常病态问题和一般稳定问题中３种算法的相对误差及其算法稳定性评价．进而针对３种算法在同一地质模型上的速度成像结果进行了比较,为地震层析成像反演效果分析提供了定量参数．     

Aquatic Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment of Chemicals in Wet Weather Discharges in the Sydney Region, New South Wales, Australia

Sydney Water has completed a risk assessment to assess the risks to human health and aquatic organisms in creeks, rivers, estuaries and ocean waters affected by wet weather sewage overflows, stormwater and sewage treatment plant discharges. The risk assessment methodology consists of a comparison of measured and predicted concentrations of chemicals with toxicity reference values. Estimates of receiving water chemical concentrations were derived using data from a 10-year period so that the variable rainfall pattern was represented. Computer models were used to simulate and predict wet weather discharges during this ten year period. Risks were validated by bioassays and bioassessments. Risks to aquatic life from wet weather discharges were attributed to 14 chemicals at one or more of the sites and stormwater was the predominate source of the chemicals. There were no risks to people engaged in water based activities. Noncarcinogenic risks from fish ingestion are predicted at three sites. Predicted cancer risks for most individual chemicals were relatively small. Carcinogenic risks were typically associated with organochlorine compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, dichlorobenzene, and arsenic. The predicted cancer risks also appear to be largely the result of stormwater rather than sewage overflow inputs and largely due to historical contamination by organochlorine pesticides. It is expected the concentrations of these chemicals will decrease over time.     

涵江地电站外线路改造效果评价

涵江地电站经过彻底改造,已可以记录到区域内的地电阻率和自然电位的变化情况,为东南沿海地区的地震预报提供一定的台北信息和连续可靠的观测资料,是一个必要的地震台北信息的观测手段。     

提高763长周期地震仪的抗干扰能力

我台以《提高763地震仪的抗干扰能力》为课题,在基建完成后,对763仪器重新进行安装调试,对仪器的连续线及耦合系统进行了全面的改进处理。投入运行工作两年来,记录效果较好,仪器的抗干扰能力有了较大程度的提高。     

地震活动性参数b值和年发生率的一种取值方法

介绍了一种将历史地震与现代小震统计结果相协调,去不可靠或不稳定数据段确定地震活动性参数ｂ值,以及通过不同震级下限地震频度的时间滑动分析,选取现今与历史相近,且具较高震级下限的统计结果,推算４级以上地震年发生度ｖ４的方法。计算给出了东南沿海地震带及其南带,北带的ｂ值和ｖ４值。     

1997年新疆伽师强震群序列活动特征

以１９９７年伽师强群序列基础资料,分析了其频度衰减特征,ｈ值动态演化,强震群动态发生过程以及序列各参数的动态演变与强,余震发生的关系,最后给出伽强震群中长,中,短和临震预报的新思路,同时讨论了实施强震群动态跟踪临震预报的可能性。     

公路桥梁地震易损性和震后恢复过程

采用专家调查的方式,统计的我国各种主要公路桥梁在不同烈度的地震发生后可能遭受的结构破坏和功能损失,以及地震发生后所需要的恢复时间。通过分析,给出了大、中、小种规模的斜拉、悬索、板梁式和拱式桥梁的结构破坏概率矩阵、设施损失率、功能损失率分布、损失功能恢复所需要的时间和桥梁在遭受破坏期间所损失的工作日数,并将研究结果与唐山地震之后的实际调查结果进行了对比,得到了一些有益的结果。     

地下流体地震前兆多层次跟踪法在华南及沿海地区的应用

利用多层次跟踪法,对８０年代以来华南及沿海地区发生的９次大于Ｍｓ５．０级和２次陆区接近Ｍｓ５．０级地震的发震时间进行了系统验证。在１１个震例中预测时段正确的有：中期１０个、短期５个和短临２个,表明该方法应用于华南及其沿海地区未来中强震发震时间的预报。