A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Preservation/exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure subduction complexes

Ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic terranes reflect subduction of continental crust to depths of 90–140 km in Phanerozoic contractional orogens. Rocks are intensely overprinted by lower pressure mineral assemblages; traces of relict UHP phases are preserved only under kinetically inhibiting circumstances. Most UHP complexes present in the upper crust are thin, imbricate sheets consisting chiefly of felsic units ± serpentinites; dense mafic and peridotitic rocks make up less than  10% of each exhumed subduction complex. Roundtrip prograde–retrograde P–T paths are completed in 10–20 Myr, and rates of ascent to mid-crustal levels approximate descent velocities. Late-stage domical uplifts typify many UHP complexes.

Sialic crust may be deeply subducted, reflecting profound underflow of an oceanic plate prior to collisional suturing. Exhumation involves decompression through the P–T stability fields of lower pressure metamorphic facies. Scattered UHP relics are retained in strong, refractory, watertight host minerals (e.g., zircon, pyroxene, garnet) typified by low rates of intracrystalline diffusion. Isolation of such inclusions from the recrystallizing rock matrix impedes back reaction. Thin-aspect ratio, ductile-deformed nappes are formed in the subduction zone; heat is conducted away from UHP complexes as they rise along the subduction channel. The low aggregate density of continental crust is much less than that of the mantle it displaces during underflow; its rapid ascent to mid-crustal levels is driven by buoyancy. Return to shallow levels does not require removal of the overlying mantle wedge. Late-stage underplating, structural contraction, tectonic aneurysms and/or plate shallowing convey mid-crustal UHP décollements surfaceward in domical uplifts where they are exposed by erosion. Unless these situations are mutually satisfied, UHP complexes are completely transformed to low-pressure assemblages, obliterating all evidence of profound subduction.     

Structural controls on Tertiary orogenic gold mineralization during initiation of a mountain belt, New Zealand

Two types of structurally controlled hydrothermal mineralization have occurred during folding of fissile schist in southern New Zealand: fold-related mineralization and normal fault-related mineralization. Both types have the same mineralogy and textures, and are dominated by quartz–ankerite veins and silicified breccias with ankeritic alteration. Most mineralized zones are thin (centimetre scale), although host schist is commonly impregnated with ankerite up to 20 m away. Thick (up to 5 m wide) mineralized zones are generally gold-bearing and contain pyrite and arsenopyrite with stibnite pods locally. Some of these auriferous zones have been extensively mined historically despite rugged topography and difficult access. Mineralization occurred during regional tectonic compression in the initial stages of development of the Southern Alps mountain belt at the Pacific–Australian plate boundary in the Miocene. Most of the gold-bearing deposits occur in east to south-east, striking normal faults that cut across mesoscopic folds in a belt that coincides with the southern termination of a regional-scale north trending antiform. Mineralized zones have similar structural control and relative timing to a nearby swarm of Miocene lamprophyre dykes and carbonatites. Limited stable isotopic data (C and O) and trace element geochemistry suggest that there was probably no genetic link between the igneous activity and gold mineralization. However, these two types of fluid flow have been controlled by the same tectonically created crustal plumbing system. This Miocene hydrothermal activity and gold deposition demonstrates that orogenic (mesothermal) mineralization can occur during the inception of an orogenic belt, not just in the latter stages as is commonly believed. These Miocene structures have been preserved in the orogen because the locus of uplift has moved northwards, so the early-formed gold deposits have not yet been structurally overprinted or eroded.     

地震快报系统

本文简述了开发地震快报系统的主要技术。     

Evolution from Oceanic Subduction to Continental Collision: a Case Study from the Northern Tibetan Plateau Based on Geochemical and Geochronological Data

Two apparently distinct, sub-parallel, paleo-subduction zonescan be recognized along the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau:the North Qilian Suture Zone (oceanic-type) with ophioliticmélanges and high-pressure eclogites and blueschistsin the north, and the North Qaidam Belt (continental-type) inthe south, an ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic terrane comprisingpelitic and granitic gneisses, eclogites and garnet peridotites.Eclogites from both belts have protoliths broadly similar tomid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) or oceanic island basalts (OIB)in composition with overlapping metamorphic ages (480–440Ma, with weighted mean ages of 464 ± 6 Ma for North Qilianand 457 ± 7 Ma for North Qaidam), determined by zirconU–Pb sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe dating.Coesite-bearing zircon grains in pelitic gneisses from the NorthQaidam UHP Belt yield a peak metamorphic age of 423 ±6 Ma, 40 Myr younger than the age of eclogite formation, anda retrograde age of 403 ± 9 Ma. These data, combinedwith regional relationships, allow us to infer that these twoparallel belts may represent an evolutionary sequence from oceanicsubduction to continental collision, and continental underthrusting,to final exhumation. The Qilian–Qaidam Craton was probablya fragment of the Rodinia supercontinent with a passive marginand extended oceanic lithosphere in the north, which was subductedbeneath the North China Craton to depths >100 km at c. 423Ma and exhumed at c. 403 Ma (zircon rim ages in pelitic gneiss). KEY WORDS: HP and UHP rocks; subduction belts; zircon SHRIMP ages; Northern Tibetan Plateau     

武当地块基性岩席群及其地质意义

侵位于武当地块内部的大量的板状为基性侵入体近年来一直被认为是800Ma左右发生的扬子古大陆裂解的重要依据。然而作者在武当地块北缘与西南部所做的1：5万地质填图以及相应的构造学和同位素年代学研究表明，它们与武当地块顺层伸展滑脱构造主滑脱面之顺层韧性一韧性变形带有密切的空间关系，是被褶皱了的岩席群。最新获得的岩体单颗粒锆石U－Pb年龄为401－407Ma，结合已有的地球化学研究成果，并考虑到邻区同时代碱性岩浆的侵位，作者认为，这套基性岩群代表了泥盆纪时南秦岭地区曾发生过大规模的上地幔岩浆的底侵作用，并因此导致南秦岭上部地壳的伸展减薄。     

中朝板块元古宙板内地震带与盆地格局

地史中发生的强地震事件在地层中留下固定的记录 (图 1～ 3) ,这些记录在区域上呈带状分布 ,代表地史中的地震带。中朝板块元古宙目前可识别出两个板内地震带 (图 5 )。中元古代板内地震带 (170 0～ 12 0 0Ma)西起太行山北段 ,经燕山山脉、辽宁西部、穿越辽河平原至辽宁北部的泛河流域分布 ,即燕山—泛河地震带 ,现今呈NEE向延伸。新元古代震旦纪地震带沿吉林南部、辽东半岛、山东中部及苏皖北部现今呈NNE走向分布 ,即古郯庐地震带 (6 5 0～ 6 0 0Ma)。上述两个板内地震带是元古宙不同时期超大陆裂解的响应。中元古代与新元古代两个不同方向的地震断裂带分别控制着两个时期的盆地边界。燕山泛河地震断裂带构成中元古代海盆南界 (指现在的位置 ) ,形成向北开放的海域。古郯庐地震断裂带将中朝板块裂解为华北块体与胶辽朝块体。古郯庐地震断裂带构成震旦纪海域的边界 ,震旦纪海盆通过朝鲜半岛与当时的外海相连接 ,华北块体则为陆源剥蚀区。文内四幅古地理图 (图 6～ 9)是以地震灾变思想为指导 ,以新的地层研究、对比为基础编制的 ,侧重反映了盆地的格局及其变化。根据地震、同沉积断裂新的思路 ,可提供地质学家重新认识与解释某些沉积矿床的成因 ,它们的成矿元素均来自地球深部而非地表风化作用。文中编制     

Structure and tectonic evolution of the Southern Eurasia Basin, Arctic Ocean

Multichannel seismic reflection data acquired by Marine Arctic Geological Expedition (MAGE) of Murmansk, Russia in 1990 provide the first view of the geological structure of the Arctic region between 77–80°N and 115–133°E, where the Eurasia Basin of the Arctic Ocean adjoins the passive-transform continental margin of the Laptev Sea. South of 80°N, the oceanic basement of the Eurasia Basin and continental basement of the Laptev Sea outer margin are covered by 1.5 to 8 km of sediments. Two structural sequences are distinguished in the sedimentary cover within the Laptev Sea outer margin and at the continent/ocean crust transition: the lower rift sequence, including mostly Upper Cretaceous to Lower Paleocene deposits, and the upper post-rift sequence, consisting of Cenozoic sediments. In the adjoining Eurasia Basin of the Arctic Ocean, the Cenozoic post-rift sequence consists of a few sedimentary successions deposited by several submarine fans. Based on the multichannel seismic reflection data, the structural pattern was determined and an isopach map of the sedimentary cover and tectonic zoning map were constructed. A location of the continent/ocean crust transition is tentatively defined. A buried continuation of the mid-ocean Gakkel Ridge is also detected. This study suggests that south of 78.5°N there was the cessation in the tectonic activity of the Gakkel Ridge Rift from 33–30 until 3–1 Ma and there was no sea-floor spreading in the southernmost part of the Eurasia Basin during the last 30–33 m.y. South of 78.5°N all oceanic crust of the Eurasia Basin near the continental margin of the Laptev Sea was formed from 56 to 33–30 Ma.     

Topography as a major factor in the development of arcuate thrust belts: insights from sandbox experiments

We have used sandbox experiments to investigate and to illustrate the effects of topography upon the development of arcuate thrust belts. In experiments where a sand pack shortened and thickened in front of an advancing rectilinear piston, the geometry of the developing thrust wedge was highly sensitive to variations in surface topography. In the absence of erosion and sedimentation, the surface slope tended to become uniform, as predicted by the theory of critical taper. Under these conditions, the wedge propagated by sequential accretion of new thrust slices. In contrast, where erosion or sedimentation caused the topographic profile to become irregular, thrusts developed out of sequence. For example, erosion throughout a hinterland caused underlying thrusts to remain active and inhibited the development of new thrusts in the foreland. Where initial topography was irregular in plan view, accreting thrusts tended to be arcuate. They were convex towards the foreland, around an initially high area; concave towards the foreland, around an initially low area. Initial plateaux tended to behave rigidly, while arcuate thrust slices accreted to them. Thrust motions were radial with respect to each plateau. Within transfer zones to each side, fault blocks rotated about vertical axes and thrust motions were oblique-slip. At late stages of deformation, the surface slope of the thrust wedge tended towards a uniform value. Initial mountains of conical shape (representing volcanoes) also escaped deformation, except at depth, where they detached. Arcuate thrust slices accreted to front and back. Where a developing thrust wedge was subject to local incision, accreting thrust slices dipped towards surrounding areas of high topography, forming Vs across valleys.Arcuate structural patterns are to be found around the three highest plateaux on Earth (Tibet, Pamirs and Altiplano) and around the Tromen volcanic ridge in the Neuquén Basin of northern Patagonia. We infer that these areas behaved in quasi-rigid fashion, protected as they were by their high topography.     

Interpretation of seismic and potential field data from western New York State and Lake Ontario

Lithoprobe and industry seismic profiles have furnished evidence of major zones of easterly dipping Grenville deformed crust extending southwest from exposed Grenville rocks north of Lake Ontario. Additional constraints on subsurface structure limited to the postulated Clarendon–Linden fault system south of Lake Ontario are provided by five east–west reflection lines recorded in 1976. Spatial correlations between seismic structure and magnetic anomalies are described from both Lake Ontario and the newly reprocessed New York lines.In the Paleozoic to Precambrian upper crust, the New York seismic sections show: (1) An easterly thickening wedge of subhorizontal Paleozoic strata unconformably overlying a Precambrian basement whose surface has an apparent regional easterly dip of 1–2°. Minor apparent normal offsets, possibly on the order of tens of meters, occur within the Paleozoic section. The generally poorly reflective unconformity may be locally characterized by topographic relief on the order of 100 m; (2) Apparent local displacement on the order of 90 m at the level of the Black River Group diminishes upward to little or no apparent offset of Queenston Shale; (3) Within the limited seismic sections, there appears to be no evidence that the complete upper crustal section is vertically or subvertically offset; (4) Dipping structure in the Paleozoic strata (15° to 35°) resembles some underlying Precambrian basement elements; (5) The surface continuity of inferred faults constituting the Clarendon–Linden system is not strongly supported by the seismic data.Beneath the Paleozoic strata, the seismic sections show both linear and arcuate reflector geometry with easterly apparent dips of 15° to 35° similar to the deep structures imaged on seismic lines from nearby Lake Ontario and on Lithoprobe lines to the north. The similarity supports an extension of easterly dipping Central Metasedimentary Belt structures of the Grenville orogen from southern Ontario to beneath western New York State.From a comparison of the magnetic and gravity fields with the New York seismic sections, we suggest: (1) The largely nonmagnetic Paleozoic strata appear to contribute negligibly to magnetic anomalies. Seismically imaged fractures in the New York Paleozoic strata appear to lie mainly west of a positive gravity anomaly. The relationship between magnetic and gravity anomalies and the changes in the geometry of interpreted Precambrian structures remains enigmatic; (2) North to northeast trending curvilinear magnetic and gravity anomalies parallel, but are not restricted to the principal trend of the postulated Clarendon–Linden fault system. Paleozoic fractures of the Clarendon–Linden system may partly overlie a southward extension of the Composite Arc Belt boundary zone.