Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.     

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

地震快报系统

本文简述了开发地震快报系统的主要技术。     

笼状水合物拉曼光谱特征与结构水合数的耦合关系

为了探讨不同气体组分和环境介质对形成笼状结构类型水合物和水合数的影响, 开展了一元体系 (CH4、CO2、C3H8 )和二元体系(CH4 +CO2、CH4 +C3H8、CH4 +N2 )的水合物生成结晶充填过程、结晶构型和动力学特性分析, 并对生成的水合物进行了拉曼光谱分析。结果表明单组分甲烷充填小孔穴 512和大孔穴 512 62 形成Ⅰ型笼状结构水合物(SⅠ), 二氧化碳和丙烷只占据大孔穴 512 64 形成Ⅱ型笼状结构水合物 (SⅡ ); 而二元混合组分中小孔穴中只充填有甲烷, 而没有CO2、N2 和C3H8。应用反褶积的ν1 对称谱带测定了CH4 分子在Ⅰ型结构大孔穴和小孔穴中的相对占有率,并根据谱带的面积比(对应于小孔穴与大孔穴)计算了平衡条件下甲烷水合物孔穴占有率及其耦合的水合数, 认为气体分子的大小不仅影响它所充填的孔穴形态和类型, 而且影响水合物生成的结构类型和水合数。     

Electrical aerosol spectrometer of Tartu University

The electrical aerosol spectrometer (EAS) of the parallel measuring principle at Tartu University is an efficient instrument for rapid measurement of the unstable size spectrum of aerosol particles. The measuring range from 10 nm to 10 μm is achieved by simultaneously using a pair of differential mobility analyzers with two different particle chargers. The particle spectrum is calculated and measurement errors are estimated in real time by using a least-squares method. Experimental calibration ensures reliability of measurement. The instrument is well suited for continuous monitoring of atmospheric aerosol.     

Structure and tectonic evolution of the Southern Eurasia Basin, Arctic Ocean

Multichannel seismic reflection data acquired by Marine Arctic Geological Expedition (MAGE) of Murmansk, Russia in 1990 provide the first view of the geological structure of the Arctic region between 77–80°N and 115–133°E, where the Eurasia Basin of the Arctic Ocean adjoins the passive-transform continental margin of the Laptev Sea. South of 80°N, the oceanic basement of the Eurasia Basin and continental basement of the Laptev Sea outer margin are covered by 1.5 to 8 km of sediments. Two structural sequences are distinguished in the sedimentary cover within the Laptev Sea outer margin and at the continent/ocean crust transition: the lower rift sequence, including mostly Upper Cretaceous to Lower Paleocene deposits, and the upper post-rift sequence, consisting of Cenozoic sediments. In the adjoining Eurasia Basin of the Arctic Ocean, the Cenozoic post-rift sequence consists of a few sedimentary successions deposited by several submarine fans. Based on the multichannel seismic reflection data, the structural pattern was determined and an isopach map of the sedimentary cover and tectonic zoning map were constructed. A location of the continent/ocean crust transition is tentatively defined. A buried continuation of the mid-ocean Gakkel Ridge is also detected. This study suggests that south of 78.5°N there was the cessation in the tectonic activity of the Gakkel Ridge Rift from 33–30 until 3–1 Ma and there was no sea-floor spreading in the southernmost part of the Eurasia Basin during the last 30–33 m.y. South of 78.5°N all oceanic crust of the Eurasia Basin near the continental margin of the Laptev Sea was formed from 56 to 33–30 Ma.     

Interpretation of seismic and potential field data from western New York State and Lake Ontario

Lithoprobe and industry seismic profiles have furnished evidence of major zones of easterly dipping Grenville deformed crust extending southwest from exposed Grenville rocks north of Lake Ontario. Additional constraints on subsurface structure limited to the postulated Clarendon–Linden fault system south of Lake Ontario are provided by five east–west reflection lines recorded in 1976. Spatial correlations between seismic structure and magnetic anomalies are described from both Lake Ontario and the newly reprocessed New York lines.In the Paleozoic to Precambrian upper crust, the New York seismic sections show: (1) An easterly thickening wedge of subhorizontal Paleozoic strata unconformably overlying a Precambrian basement whose surface has an apparent regional easterly dip of 1–2°. Minor apparent normal offsets, possibly on the order of tens of meters, occur within the Paleozoic section. The generally poorly reflective unconformity may be locally characterized by topographic relief on the order of 100 m; (2) Apparent local displacement on the order of 90 m at the level of the Black River Group diminishes upward to little or no apparent offset of Queenston Shale; (3) Within the limited seismic sections, there appears to be no evidence that the complete upper crustal section is vertically or subvertically offset; (4) Dipping structure in the Paleozoic strata (15° to 35°) resembles some underlying Precambrian basement elements; (5) The surface continuity of inferred faults constituting the Clarendon–Linden system is not strongly supported by the seismic data.Beneath the Paleozoic strata, the seismic sections show both linear and arcuate reflector geometry with easterly apparent dips of 15° to 35° similar to the deep structures imaged on seismic lines from nearby Lake Ontario and on Lithoprobe lines to the north. The similarity supports an extension of easterly dipping Central Metasedimentary Belt structures of the Grenville orogen from southern Ontario to beneath western New York State.From a comparison of the magnetic and gravity fields with the New York seismic sections, we suggest: (1) The largely nonmagnetic Paleozoic strata appear to contribute negligibly to magnetic anomalies. Seismically imaged fractures in the New York Paleozoic strata appear to lie mainly west of a positive gravity anomaly. The relationship between magnetic and gravity anomalies and the changes in the geometry of interpreted Precambrian structures remains enigmatic; (2) North to northeast trending curvilinear magnetic and gravity anomalies parallel, but are not restricted to the principal trend of the postulated Clarendon–Linden fault system. Paleozoic fractures of the Clarendon–Linden system may partly overlie a southward extension of the Composite Arc Belt boundary zone.     

Physical properties of ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic rocks from the Sulu terrain, eastern central China: implications for the seismic structure at the Donghai (CCSD) drilling site

About 30 samples representing major lithologies of Sulu ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic rocks were collected from surface exposures and exploration wells, and compressional (Vp) and shear wave (Vs) velocities and their directional dependence (anisotropy) were determined over a range of constant confining pressures up to 600 MPa and temperatures ranging from 20 to 600 °C. Samples range in composition from acidic to ultramafic. P- and S-wave velocities measured at 600 MPa vary from 5.08 to 8.64 km/s and 2.34 to 4.93 km/s, respectively. Densities are in the range from 2.60 to 3.68 g/cm³. To make a direct tie between seismic measurements (refraction and reflection) and subsurface lithologies, the experimental velocity data (corresponding to shallow depths) were used to calculate velocity profiles for the different lithologies and profiles of reflection coefficients at possible lithologic interfaces across the projected 5000-m Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling Program (CCSD) crustal segment. Comparison of calculated in situ velocities with respective intrinsic velocities suggests that the in situ velocities at shallow depths are lowered by an increased abundance of open microcracks. The strongly reflective zone beneath the Donghai drill site can be explained by the impedance contrasts between the different lithologies. Contacts between eclogite/peridotite and felsic rocks (gt-gneiss, granitic gneiss), in particular, may give rise to strong seismic reflections. In addition, shear-induced (lattice preferred orientation (LPO)-related) seismic anisotropy can increase reflectivity. For the explanation of the high velocity bodies (>6.4 km/s) around 1000 m and below 3200-m depth, large proportions of eclogite/peridotite (about 40 and 30 vol.%, respectively) are needed.     

Stability of earthquake moment tensor inversions: effect of the double-couple constraint

We show that spurious large non-double-couple components can be obtained in inversions for the full deviatoric moment tensor for shallow crustal earthquakes due to inaccurate Earth models. The traditional “best double-couple” solution does not in general provide an optimal estimate of a double-couple mechanism, and is only reliable when the non-double-couple component of the full deviatoric solution is small. The inverse problem for the moment tensors of the 1998 Antarctic Plate and 2000 Wharton Basin strike-slip earthquakes is shown in each case to have two well-fitting minima in the misfit function of pure double-couple solutions. Such pairs of solutions are most likely to exist for earthquakes which are close either to vertical strike-slip or to dip-slip on a fault plane dipping at 45°. It is shown theoretically that these pairs of solutions arise from the combination of the pure double-couple constraint and the instability of two elements of the moment tensor. No significant non-double-couple component is found for the shallow thrusting 1996 Biak, Indonesia earthquake.