基于统计学的地震显著平静阈值估计

提出具有统计学意义的地震显著平静阈值估算方法,用于中国大陆及川滇、新疆和华北地区中强震活动分析,在不同区域得到不同起始震级的显著平静阈值范围。结果显示:(1)中国大陆7级、6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为3.9—6.2年、7.9—9.6个月和62—70天;(2)川滇地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.1—2.9年和7.0—8.5个月;(3)新疆地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.6—4.0年和8.5—10.5个月;(4)华北地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为11.7—23.4年和5.2—7.7年。     

谢通门地震窗活动频次与强震对应关系

采用西藏测震台网记录的2008年1月—2018年12月谢通门区域定位地震,系统分析该区M_L1.5以上地震频度变化及与附近强震的对应关系,发现地震台站建设密度对谢通门地震窗监控能力影响较大,故从2008—2011年和2012年7月—2018年12月2个时段予以分析。分析发现,2012年7月开始,谢通门地震窗小震活动水平在每月20次范围内随机波动,当超过20次以上(含20次)即异常高值出现或结束后1.5年内,在半径100 km以内具有发生M_S 5.0以上地震的可能,在半径1 000 km以内具有发生M_S 6.5以上强震的可能。     

青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。     

Orbit injection error analysis for the Lageos III mission

An analysis is presented of the orbital injection errors for the Lageos III satellite mission. Several methods are introduced for the solution of the Inverse Problem in the Theory of Errors. The novelty of the present approach consists in the use of the full geopotential covariance matrix in the error propagation equations. The GEM-T1 covariance matrix is used. It is found that by properly accounting for the correlation among the even zonal harmonic coefficients the acceptable error bounds increase by an order of magnitude with respect to the case when only the variances are used. The most stringent constraint, even when using the full covariance, is on inclination, whose nominal value must be realized within approximately 0.1° for the recovery of the Lense-Thirring precession to be successful at the 3% level (accounting only for injection errors). The associated tolerance in the semimajor axis is about 30 km while that in eccentricity is approximately 0.2. However, if the errors in semimajor axis and eccentricity can be kept to the routinely achievable levels respectively of 10 km and 0.004, then the tolerance in inclination can be relaxed to 0.2°.     

基于性能的框架结构抗震设计研究

对国内外基于性能的抗震设计研究成果进行了较系统的综述与分析,研究表明,基于性能的抗震设计能够对结构在未来可能地震作用下的性能进行有效的控制,使破坏和损失限定在可接受的范围内。在此基础上,本文还初步提出了钢筋混凝土框架结构基于延性的抗震设计建议。     

RC框架结构薄弱层的层间位移可靠度水平考察

讨论了钢筋混凝土框架结构层间极限变形角的近似概率特性,考察了大震作用下20余幢钢筋混凝土框架结构薄弱层的层间位移可靠度水平,从而为直接基于位移可靠度的抗震设计中层间目标位移可靠度的确定提供了一定依据。     

地震速报参数不确定性的应急灾害损失快速评估模型

本文针对目前地震应急灾害损失快速评估中存在的问题,建立了考虑地震速报参数不确定性的灾害损失快速评估模型。并利用1990年来全国的81组速报震中与宏观震中数据。得到速报震中与宏观震中偏差的概率分布经验参数。     

四种计算地震反应数值方法的比较研究

本文在简要总结了计算单自由度系统地震反应频域方法和时域方法的特点之后,按照统一的递归公式,系统地对计算单自由度体系的四种时域方法即中心差分方法、Newmark方法、Z变换方法、Duhamel逐步积分法进行了对比研究。通过递归系数b1和b2的不变性、传递函数的低频约束条件和相位特性以及数值分析等几个方面说明了上述方法各自的优缺点、相对精度和适用的范围。根据动力平衡方程的算子不变性,研究了上述方法的共性特征,揭示了相对位移、相对速度、相对加速度递归公式的内在联系,这表明只要知道相对位移的递归公式,相对速度、相对加速度的递归公式也就随之确定,在此基础上推荐了一套计算单自由度系统相对位移、相对速度、相对加速度地震反应的递归公式。     

Multi‐variable relations for soil effects on seismic ground motion

Soil effects on peak ground acceleration, velocity and elastic response spectra (5% damping) are expressed by simple approximate relations in terms of five key parameters: (a) the fundamental vibration period of the non‐linear soil, T_S, (b) the period of a bedrock site of equal thickness, T_b, (c) the predominant excitation period, Te, (d) the peak seismic acceleration at outcropping bedrock, a, and (e) the number of significant excitation cycles, n. Furthermore, another relation is proposed for the estimation of T_S in terms of the soil thickness H, the average shear wave velocity of the soil V?_S,o and a. The aforementioned parameters were first identified through a simplified analytical simulation of the site excitation. The multivariable approximate relations were then formulated via a statistical analysis of relevant data from more than 700 one‐dimensional equivalent‐linear seismic ground response analyses, for actual seismic excitations and natural soil conditions. Use of these relations to back‐calculate the numerical results in the database gives an estimate of their error margin, which is found to be relatively small and unbiased. The proposed relations are also independently verified through a detailed comparison with strong motion recordings from seven well‐documented case studies: (a) two sites in the San Fernando valley during the Northridge earthquake, and (b) five different seismic events recorded at the SMART‐1 accelerometer array in Taiwan. It is deduced that the accuracy of the relations is comparable to that of the equivalent‐linear method. Hence, they can be readily used as a quick alternative for routine applications, as well as for spreadsheet computations (e.g. GIS‐aided seismic microzonation studies) where numerical methods are cumbersome to implement. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.