基于海洋气候数据集的区域海平面变化非线性预测

本文基于中国首套长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的全球海洋气候数据集产品, 利用1993年1月至2015年12月的山东半岛近海海平面异常数据, 构建了基于集合经验模式分解(EEMD)和长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)的海平面非线性变化组合预测模型。EEMD可以得到海平面异常的各周期项、线性趋势及残差部分, LSTM模型可对其进行逐个预测并重构得到最终的海平面异常预测结果。EEMD-LSTM组合模型海平面异常预测的均方根误差仅为25.87 mm, 取得了令人满意的效果。基于该组合模型预测2016-2025年山东半岛近海海平面上升速率将达到3.54 mm·a^-1。     

地下水弥散系数的测定

以大红染料为示踪剂,采用单井脉冲注入示踪剂的方法测定了主井和观测井中示踪剂的浓度变化,并用解析公式法计算了西小洞垃圾场地下水的纵向弥散系数。     

青黄公路交通调查及交通量预测

通过对1998年2月青黄公路的交通调查,分析了青黄公路的交通现状,根据青岛市的国民经济增长速度、交通运输发展及城市出入口资料,利用弹性系数法预测了2000年和2010年青黄公路的城市交通量。     

一个两时间层分裂显格式海洋环流模式(MASNUM)及其检验

A two-time-level, three-dimensional numerical ocean circulation model（named MASNUM） was established with a two-level, single-step Eulerian forward-backward time-differencing scheme. A mathematical model of large-scale oceanic motions was based on the terrain-following coordinated, Boussinesq, Reynolds-averaged primitive equations of ocean dynamics. A simple but very practical Eulerian forward-backward method was adopted to replace the most preferred leapfrog scheme as the time-differencing method for both barotropic and baroclinic modes. The forward-backward method is of second-order of accuracy, computationally efficient by requiring only one function evaluation per time step, and free of the computational mode inherent in the three-level schemes. This method is superior to the leapfrog scheme in that the maximum time step of stability is twice as large as that of the leapfrog scheme in staggered meshes thus the computational efficiency could be doubled. A spatial smoothing method was introduced to control the nonlinear instability in the numerical integration. An ideal numerical experiment simulating the propagation of the equatorial Rossby soliton was performed to test the amplitude and phase error of this new model. The performance of this circulation model was further verified with a regional（northwest Pacific） and a quasi-global（global ocean simulation with the Arctic Ocean excluded） simulation experiments. These two numerical experiments show fairly good agreement with the observations. The maximum time step of stability in these two experiments were also investigated and compared between this model and that model which adopts the leapfrog scheme.     

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.     

颗粒材料数值样本的坐标排序生成技术

颗粒材料离散颗粒模型的数值模拟结果与颗粒材料的数值样本密切相关,随着离散单元在颗粒材料数值模拟领域的广泛应用,颗粒材料的数值样本生成技术日益受到重视。基于RSA模型研究如何使随机生成的颗粒材料更密实,对均匀颗粒而言亦即如何在指定区域内生成更多的颗粒,讨论了4类修正方案,并建议了一种基于坐标排序的样本生成技术。研究表明,在传统的颗粒体随机生成技术基础上,通过对随机生成的x坐标序列或y坐标序列进行排序,可使生成的颗粒材料数值样本更密实。     

Application of an improved semi-Lagrangian procedure to fully-nonlinear simulation of sloshing in non-wall-sided tanks

The semi-Lagrangian procedure is widely used for updating the fully-nonlinear free surface in the time domain. However, this procedure is only available to cases when the body surface is vertical near the waterline. Present study introduces an improved semi-Lagrangian procedure which removes this ‘vertical-wall’ limitation. Coupling with the boundary element method, the improved semi-Lagrangian procedure is applied to the simulation of fully-nonlinear sloshing waves in non-wall-sided tanks. From the result comparison with the open source CFD software OpenFOAM, it is confirmed that this numerical scheme could guarantee a sufficient accuracy. Further series studies on 2D and 3D fully-nonlinear sloshing waves in wedged tanks are performed. Featured phenomena are observed which are distinct from those in wall-sided tanks.     

颗粒状纳米碳酸钡锶钙的研制

介绍一种气-液相合成技术合成氧化物阴极用三元碳酸盐,研究沉淀温度、浓度及搅拌速率对合成碳酸钡锶钙结晶形貌的影响,分析其结晶过程.通过优化合成溶液温度及合成浓度,控制碳酸盐的成核和生长速率,合成了一种颗粒状纳米三元碳酸盐,并进行直流发射测试.实验表明,这种纳米碳酸盐能明显提高氧化物阴极的发射性能.     

工程海域波浪特征分析方法比较

通过选取两个典型海外工程项目案例,分别采用波浪特征参数法和波浪谱法对工程海域波浪条件进行分析,并比较这两种方法在作业波浪条件、波浪特征认知程度上的差异,以及对海港水域平面布置产生的影响。对于波浪能量在频域及方向上存在多峰谱情况的海域,基于全谱的波浪特征参数系列数据有可能出现以下两种情况:1)主峰波向掩盖次峰波向;2)主峰波向错配次峰周期。对于上述两种情况,若仅采用波浪特征参数法对工程海域作业波浪条件进行分析,并指导海港水域平面布置,则极可能忽略或误判个别敏感波向、关键频域段的部分波浪能量,从而误导设计,为后续项目运营埋下隐患。对于以上情形,宜采用波浪谱法深入分析工程海域波浪能量在整个频域及各个方向上的详细分布及构成,并对关键波向、关键频域段的波浪能量进行量化,评估其对海港水域平面布置的影响,从而最大程度地避免由于波浪输入条件误判带来的风险。