Linear combinations of order statistics to estimate the position and scale parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution

 Ad hoc techniques for estimating the position and the scale parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution are introduced. The estimators proposed are simple linear combinations of the order statistics: they provide valuable estimates of the parameters of interest, both when the shape parameter is known and when it is unknown (this latter case being of great relevance in practical applications), and show a good performance as well when the sample size is small. The procedures are tested on simulated data, and comparisons with other techniques are shown.     

2001年5月24日四川盐源5.8级地震灾害及损失评估

对2001年5月24日发生在四川盐源之5.8级地震灾情作了概述，这次地震宏观震中位于四川盐源县泸沽湖镇舍垮村一带，震中区烈度为Ⅶ度，个别点可达Ⅷ度，其中四川地区受灾面积达1130平方千米，受灾人口达9632户，48249人，地震造成1人死亡，39人受伤，5930人无家可归，其直接经济损失在9000万元左右，同时，位于震区外围的木里县城所在地-乔瓦镇因位于老滑坡地带，成为灾害异常区，从而使建筑物遭受较大的损坏。     

格尔木台数字地震资料与台网模拟资料的对比分析

选取了格尔木地震台2000年9月至12月记录到（Ml≥3.0）的数字地震资料。模拟地震资料选取了青海省地震局分析预报中心测震分析组编辑的《青海省地震目录》提供了地震参数。对2种地震资料在发震时刻、震中位置及震级方面作了初步的分析比较。通过对比分析，认为：数字化地震仪无论是在授时精度，还是在分析处理方面都优于模拟记录。用数字资料替代模拟资料是地震台站的一次技术革命。     

Multi-Parameter Identification and Applications in Well-Logging

We deal with a multi-parameter identification problem arising in oil industry. In the general case, we give a local solvability condition to guarantee the well-posedness of the problem. We discuss in detail the identification of two parameters for which some numerical results are given.     

价值与异质性:选择实验下的滨海游憩环境评价

海岸公园环境管理作为重要的生态经济发展问题,在制定有效政策时,相关信息至关重要,尤其是与娱乐或游憩相关的环境属性经济价值评价。本文以大连沿海公园为研究区域,选取海滩类型、垃圾情况、水质清澈度、拥挤程度四个环境要素,采用三种离散选择模型对游客的环境改善支付意愿(Willingness to pay,WTP)进行了估算。研究发现水质改善和减少垃圾的经济价值最高,分别为40.69元和70.55元,另外,游客对于拥挤程度的改善意愿不明显(–0.12元)。此外,本研究针对公园属性组合对受访者偏好及异质性进行了分析,结果表明,在给定的属性因素中,不同游客个体特征下的WTP存在显著的异质性,女性游客较男性对水质改善有着更高的WTP,游客收入水平与支付意愿也有明显的正相关性,从事游泳和划船活动的游客对水质的WTP较高(59.83元)。这些发现为沿海公园管理者制定有价值的政策提供了有用的信息。     

长春西部串湖含水介质弥散试验及污染质运移研究

水动力弥散系数是建立地下水水质模型,进行地下水溶质运移研究的重要参数。在野外调查的基础上,设计并开展了室内二维水动力弥散试验,应用直线图解法确定了研究区含水介质的纵向、横向弥散系数。建立了该区地下水溶质运移模型,并对其进行了预测分析。     

深层岩体松动爆破中不耦合装药效应的探讨

基于冲击波在交界面两侧压力和速度必须各自相等的连续性条件,求解爆轰产物中适用的反射波方程和介质中适用的冲击波方程,得到药包周围介质中冲击波的初始参数.通过波的传播机理,把集中药包应力波随距离的衰减公式扩展到延长药包,并计算耦合与不耦合装药爆破时距爆心相同距离处岩石中冲击波的参数.由计算结果可知:(1)耦合装药爆破时形成的冲击波压力超过岩石抗压强度极限几十倍以上,药包周围岩石形成粉碎区;(2)与耦合装药爆破相比,不耦合装药爆破可以降低孔壁处岩石中冲击波初始压力,但可以增加孔壁后岩石中的冲击波压力.合理的不耦合系数,可使岩石不形成粉碎区,大幅度减少能量耗散;(3)水一般认为是非线性弹性介质,因此水介质成为炸药爆轰产物与岩石间的弹性缓冲层,增加了能量传递,延长了冲击波作用时间,加大了爆炸的作用范围.     

A kinematic hardening constitutive model for sands: the multiaxial formulation

This paper explores the possibility of using well-accepted concepts—Mohr-Coulomb-like strength criterion, critical state, existence of a small strain elastic region, hyperbolic relationship for representing global plastic stress–strain behaviour, dependence of strength on state parameter and flow rules derived from the Cam-Clay Model—to represent the general multiaxial stress–strain behaviour of granular materials over the full range of void ratios and stress level (neglecting grain crushing). The result is a simple model based on bounding surface and kinematic hardening plasticity, which is based on a single set of constitutive parameters, namely two for the elastic behaviour plus eight for the plastic behaviour, which all have a clear and easily understandable physical meaning. In order to assist the convenience of the numerical implementation, the model is defined in a ‘normalized’ stress space in which the stress–strain behaviour does not undergo any strain softening and so certain potential numerical difficulties are avoided. In the first part the multiaxial formulation of the model is described in detail, using appropriate mixed invariants, which rationally combine stress history and stress. The model simulations are compared with some experimental results for tests on granular soils along stress paths lying outside the triaxial plane over a wide range of densities and mean stresses, using constitutive parameters calibrated using triaxial tests. Furthermore, the study is extended to the analysis of the effects induced by the different shapes of the yield and bounding surfaces, revealing the different role played by the size and the curvature of the bounding surface on the simulated behaviour of completely stress- and partly strain-driven tests. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于喜马拉雅地带深反射地震剖面数据采集参数的讨论

本文介绍了中美联合在喜马拉雅地区进行深反射地震测量中采用的数据采集参数，并分析其合理性及采集系统的局限性。结果表明，采用的参数大多是合理的，试验是成功的。激发条件是影响记录质量的关键，单井５０ｍ深５０ｋｇ炸药的炮或者单井２５ｍ深双井组合，５０ｋｇ炸药的炮能够获得来自７０—７５ｋｍ深的Ｍｏｈｏ及Ｍｏｈｏ之下的反射震相。５０ｓ长的记录长度对于水平层的勘探深度可达１５０—１８０ｋｍ。观测系统对低频干扰波不能进行有效的压制，但在数据处理时可用滤波的方法消除低频干扰波的影响。     

Nearby galaxies. IV. The global Hubble parameter and the dispersion of the Hubble relation

Using a spherically symmetric model of the Virgo flow the global Hubble parameter has been estimated from the observed radial velocities and the photometrically measured distances of nearby galaxies. Adopting the observed recession velocity of the Virgo Cluster to about 1000 km s⁻¹ and the infall velocity of the Local Group to 350 km s⁻¹ the global Hubble constant results to 73 ± 10 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹. This value corresponds with the distance of the Virgo Cluster of 18 ± 2 Mpc. The cosmic dispersion of the galaxies around the Hubble relation is of order of 35 km s⁻¹.