Sensitivity analysis of support safety factor for predicting the effects of contributing parameters on roof falls in underground coal mines

Roof falls accounted for 18.18% of all fatal accidents in Indian coal mines, contributing about 35.29% of all fatal accidents in below-ground operations in 2005. The support safety factor, always preferred in support planning and design of underground coal mines, may be an important predictor for roof falls. In this paper, geotechnical data were collected from 14 roof fall incident places in an underground coal mine, located in the Eastern India, which has bord and pillar method of workings. The mean value of probabilistic support safety factor for the case study mine was found to be 1.24. However, the probability, of the estimated support safety factor of less than or equal to one, was found to be 0.246. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the effects of the contributing parameters on support safety factor and the likelihood of the roof fall. The multi-variate regression analysis was carried out for the data generated by Monte Carlo method to correlate the contributing factors to support safety factor. It ranked gallery width as the first parameter to control the support safety factor.     

Glacier change and glacier runoff variation in the Tuotuo River basin,the source region of Yangtze River in western China

Glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin, western China, have been monitored in recent decades by applying topographical maps and high-resolution satellite images. Results indicate that most of glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin have retreated in the period from 1968/1971 to 2001/2002, and their shrinkage area is 3.2% of the total area in the late 1960s. To assess the influence of glacier runoff on river runoff, a modified degree–day model including potential clear-sky direct solar radiation has been applied to the glaciated regions of the river basin over the period 1961–2004. It was found that glacier runoff has increased in the last 44 years, especially in the 1990s when a two-thirds increase in river runoff was derived from the increase in glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass in the entire Tuotuo River basin.     

黄河河口演变(Ⅰ) --(一)河口水文特征

本文利用20世纪后半个世纪的完整实测资料，研究了河口径流量与输沙量的变化，自50年代至90年代呈明显递减。对黄河口的水文特征：水情、沙情、断流、离子流量、滨海潮汐、潮流、余流、温、盐度分布、风暴潮、拦门沙与盐水楔等作出定性和定量的论述。对断流的危害、成因及缓解对策作出分析。河口淤积、延伸、改道对黄河下游的影响也作出时空上的定量分析。对1855年以来近代黄河三角洲海岸线变化，作出了定量研究。     

珠江口伶仃洋温度分布特征

依据实测资料，分析了伶汀洋冬、夏季的水温分布特征及其变化。冬季湾内水温的分布和变化较单一，夏季由于河流入海流量增大，河流与海洋水体的相互作用加强，明显可见两个冷、暖水锋在河口湾中段相交，上段为高温的河流淡水控制区，下段为低温的陆架水控制区，两者显著的特点是其控制区内温度变化很小，而在锋面转折地带的河口湾中段，盐淡水混合强烈，其温度变化大，温度等值线呈倾斜分布。     

BP神经网络模型在澜沧江流域径流量模拟中的应用

河川径流等水文时间序列属于复杂的非线性系统,使用回归分析等传统的分析方法,难以获取和描述其内在关联和变化规律。利用现有的相关站点的径流量历史数据和输沙量、降水量数据,在进行规格化处理和主成分分析的基础上,利用三层BP人工神经网络模型,对澜沧江流域上游昌都站径流量与各关联因子之间复杂的非线性映射关系进行模拟,采用拟牛顿算法对模型进行训练,模拟结果达到期望精度要求,并利用1982年~1985年实测数据进行模型验证。结果证明利用BP神经网络模型对澜沧江流域站点的月径流量序列进行模拟、预测和数据补缺处理具有可行性。     

国内外城市雨水径流水质的研究

综合国内外综合资料,对城市不同建筑材料屋面和不同路面的雨水径流水质特征进行了对比分析,阐明了影响城市雨水径流水质的三大因素,并论述了城市雨水收集利用的现实意义。     

Study on rain-runoff process in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin

Studies on rain-runoff process in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin, which is regarded as a key ecological shelter, will contribute to flood control and environmental protection for the Upper Yangtze River Basin. In two typical catchments--the Fujiang River Catchment and the Wujiang River Catchment, rainfall simulations have been conducted to study the rain-runoff processes of yellow soil and limestone soil in three types of land use--forestland, farmland and grassland. Results showed that （1） within the same rainfall process, overland flow occurs first on farmland, then on grassland, and finally on forestland; （2） soil surface coverage has a great impact on the occurrence and amount of overland flow. The runoff amount can increase 2-4 times after the coverage is removed; （3） the infiltration before the occurrence of overland flow will decrease because of higher gravel contents of soil, but it takes no effect on infiltration once overland flow becomes stable; （4） the runoff coefficient of the limestone soil forestland is greater than that of the yellow soil forest land, but less than that of the farmland; （5） three empirical infiltration models, including Horton＇ model, Kostiakov＇ model, and modified Kostiakov＇ model, were compared by using the observed results under rainfall simulation. The results showed that the Kostiakov＇ model performed better than both the Horton＇ model and modified Kostiakov model. According to the results of this research, the Kostiakov＇s model can be used to simulate rainfall infiltration when water erosion is modeled in the peripheral mountainous area of the Sichuan Basin.     

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.     

基于小波消噪和符号动力学的径流变化复杂性研究

提出了基于小波消噪的符号动力学途径研究径流变化的复杂度。对径流序列进行小波消噪,运用Lempel-Ziv算法计算其复杂度,以长江、黄河流域为例定量分析年径流复杂性。为研究水文系统的复杂性提供了工具。研究表明:①黄河流域径流变化比长江流域复杂;②黄河流域年径流的平均复杂度为8.3,从上游到下游的复杂性变化趋势不明显;③从时间纵向看,黄河年径流变化的复杂性并未发生显著的变化。     

Implications of the relationship between catchment vegetation type and the variability of annual runoff

The impact of changing catchment vegetation type on mean annual runoff has been known for some time, however, the impact on the variability of annual runoff has been established only recently. Differences in annual actual evapotranspiration between vegetation types and the potential effect of changing vegetation type on mean annual runoff and the variability of annual runoff are briefly reviewed. The magnitude of any change in the variability of annual runoff owing to a change in catchment vegetation type is related to the pre‐ and post‐change vegetation types and the seasonality of precipitation, assuming that the variability of annual precipitation remains constant throughout. Significant implications of the relationship between vegetation type and the variability of annual runoff are presented and discussed for water resource management, stream ecology and fluvial geomorphology. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.