Assessment of Historical Climate Trends of Surface Air Temperature in CMIP5 Models

This study assesses the historical climate trends of surface air temperature（SAT）, their spatial distributions, and the hindcast skills for SAT during 1901– 2000 from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5） models. For the global averaged SAT, most of the models（17/24） effectively captured the increasing trends（0.64°C/century for the ensemble mean） as the observed values（- 0.6°C/century） during the period of 1901–2000, particularly during a rapid warming period of 1970–2000 with the small model spread. In addition, most of the models（22/24） showed high hindcast skills（the correlation coefficient, R 〉 0.8）. For the spatial pattern of SAT, the models better simulated the relatively larger warming at the middle-to-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere and the greater warming on the land than that in the ocean between 40°S and 40°N. The simulations underestimated the warming along some ocean boundaries but overestimated warming in the Arctic Ocean. Most of the coupled models were able to reproduce the large-scale features of SAT trends in most regions excluding Antarctica, some parts of the Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic Ocean near Greenland, the southwestern Indian Ocean, and the Arctic Ocean. The outgoing longwave radiation（OLR） and incoming shortwave radiation（ISR） at the top of the atmosphere（TOA） and the downward longwave（LW） radiation and sensible heat flux at the surface had positive contributions to the increasing trends in most of the models.     

On a near-optimal control approach for a wave energy converter in irregular waves

Real-time smooth reactive control and optimal damping of wave energy converters in irregular waves is difficult in part because the radiation impulse response function is real and causal, which constrains the frequency-dependent added mass and radiation damping according to the Kramers–Kronig relations. Optimal control for maximum energy conversion requires independent synthesis of the impulse response functions corresponding to these two quantities. Since both are non-causal (one being odd and other even), full cancellation of reactive forces and matching of radiation damping requires knowledge or estimation of device velocity into the future. To address this difficulty and the non-causality of the exciting force impulse response function, this paper investigates the use of propagating-wave surface elevation up-wave of the device to synthesize the necessary forces. Long-crested waves are assumed, and the approach is based on the formulations of Naito and Nakamura [2] and Falnes [22]. A predominantly heaving submerged device comprised of three vertically stacked discs driving a linear power take-off is studied. The overall formulation leads to smooth control that is near-optimal, given the approximations involved in the time-shifting of the non-causal impulse response functions and the consequent up-wave distances at which wave surface elevation is required. Absorbed power performance with the near-optimal approach is compared with two other cases, (i) when single-frequency tuning is used based on non-real time adjustment of the reactive and resistive loads to maximize conversion at the spectral peak frequency, and (ii) when no control is applied with damping set to a constant value. Simulation results for wave spectra over a range of energy periods and significant wave heights are compared for the three situations studied. While practical implementation presents engineering challenges, in terms of time-averaged absorbed power, unconstrained near-optimal control is found to perform significantly better than single-frequency tuning in the spectra with longer energy periods (>10 s for the present device), and somewhat better in the spectra with shorter energy periods (here ≤10 s).     

基于阈值区间的海洋锋面提取模型

A model （Bayesian oceanic front detection, BOFD） of sea surface temperature （SST） front detection in satel- lite-derived SST images based on a threshold interval is presented, to be used in different applications such as climatic and environmental studies or fisheries. The model first computes the SST gradient by using a Sobel algorithm template. On the basis of the gradient value, the threshold interval is determined by a gradi- ent cumulative histogram. According to this threshold interval, front candidates can be acquired and prior probability and likelihood can be calculated. Whether or not the candidates are front points can be deter- mined by using the Bayesian decision theory. The model is evaluated on the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer images of part of the Kuroshio front region. Results are compared with those obtained by using several SST front detection methods proposed in the literature. This comparison shows that the BOFD not only suppresses noise and small-scale fronts, but also retains continuous fronts.     

Numerical simulation and experimental research on hydrodynamic performance of propeller with varying shaft depths

In order to study hydrodynamic performance of a propeller in the free surface, the numerical simulation and open-water experiments are carried out with varying shaft depths of propeller. The influences of shaft depths of a propeller on thrust and torque coefficient in calm water are mainly studied. Meanwhile, this paper also studies the propeller air-ingestion under special working conditions by experiment and theoretical calculation method, and compares the calculation results and experimental results. The results prove that the theoretical calculation model used in this paper can imitate the propeller air-ingestion successfully. The successful phenomenon simulation provides an essential theoretical basis to understand the physical essence of the propeller air-ingestion.     

表面波浪对海洋上层混合的作用

A new three-dimensional numerical model is derived through a wave average on the primitive N-S equations, in which both the＂Coriolis-Stokes forcing＂ and the＂Stokes-Vortex force＂ are considered. Three ideal experiments are run using the new model applied to the Princeton ocean model （POM）. Numerical results show that surface waves play an important role on the mixing of the upper ocean. The mixed layer is enhanced when wave effect is considered in conjunction with small Langmuir numbers. Both surface wave breaking and Stokes production can strengthen the turbulent mixing near the surface. However, the influence of wave breaking is limited to a thin layer, but Stokes drift can affect the whole mixed layer. Furthermore, the vertical mixing coefficients clearly rise in the mixed layer, and the upper ocean mixed layer is deepened especially in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current when the model is applied to global simulations. It indicates that the surface gravity waves are indispensable in enhancing the mixing in the upper ocean, and should be accounted for in ocean general circulation models.     

2013年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响

本文对2013年海洋和大气环流异常特征进行分析,讨论这些异常特征对中国气温和降水的主要影响。结果表明：2012/2013年冬季,北极涛动持续维持负位相,500 hPa位势高度场上,欧亚大陆中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”的环流形势,乌拉尔山的高压脊持续偏强,而东亚槽也异常偏强,导致全国平均气温较常年同期偏低。季内,西伯利亚高压强度变化显著,与之相对应,我国气温季内阶段性变化大,前冬冷、后冬暖。进一步研究表明,前秋北极海冰的大幅偏少是造成东亚冬季风偏强的重要原因。2013年冬季至夏季,赤道中东太平洋海温异常偏低而海洋性大陆至西太平洋海温异常偏高,受此影响,夏季西太平洋副热带高压位置明显偏北,导致我国北方夏季多雨。与此同时,受西太平洋副热带高压下沉气流的控制,我国南方大部高温持续。2013年南海夏季风爆发偏早两候,结束偏晚4候,强度偏弱。     

江苏—南黄海地区M≥6强震有序网络结构及其预测研究

基于TIGGE（THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble,全球交互式大集合）资料中欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather,ECMWF）、日本气象厅（Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA）、美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）和英国气象局（United Kingdom Met Office,UKMO）4个中心的北半球地面2m气温集合平均预报资料,利用插值技术与回归分析,并引入了消除偏差集合平均（bias-removed ensemble mean,BREM）和多模式超级集合（superensemble,SUP）方法进行统计降尺度预报研究.结果表明,在2007年夏季3个月中,4个单中心的降尺度预报明显地改善了预报效果.引入SUP和BREM两种集成预报方法后,预报误差得到进一步减小.对比综合表现最好的单中心ECMWF的预报,1～7d的降尺度预报误差改进率均达20％以上.研究还发现,引入SUP方法的降尺度预报效果优于引入BREM方法的降尺度预报,利用双线性插值方法在上述两方案中的预报效果优于其他3种插值方法.     

以黑体为目标的能见度参考标准试验研究

黑体为目标的能见度测量是从科西米德定律出发,通过工业相机对黑体目标物进行拍摄,建立黑体和背景天空的数学模型,求得能见度。分析表明:当能见度小于30 km,黑体黑度和CCD(change-coupled device)工业相机的面非均匀性对该方法测得的能见度造成的误差约为3.7%。该方法与前向散射能见度仪测量进行对比,能见度变化趋势上具有一致性;但在高能见度时,黑体能见度测量值大于前向散射能见度测量值,低能见度时,黑体测量值小于前向散射能见度测量值。     

Effects of green space spatial pattern on land surface temperature: Implications for sustainable urban planning and climate change adaptation

The urban heat island (UHI) refers to the phenomenon of higher atmospheric and surface temperatures occurring in urban areas than in the surrounding rural areas. Mitigation of the UHI effects via the configuration of green spaces and sustainable design of urban environments has become an issue of increasing concern under changing climate. In this paper, the effects of the composition and configuration of green space on land surface temperatures (LST) were explored using landscape metrics including percentage of landscape (PLAND), edge density (ED) and patch density (PD). An oasis city of Aksu in Northwestern China was used as a case study. The metrics were calculated by moving window method based on a green space map derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, and LST data were retrieved from Landsat TM thermal band. A normalized mutual information measure was employed to investigate the relationship between LST and the spatial pattern of green space. The results showed that while the PLAND is the most important variable that elicits LST dynamics, spatial configuration of green space also has significant effect on LST. Though, the highest normalized mutual information measure was with the PLAND (0.71), it was found that the ED and PD combination is the most deterministic factors of LST than the unique effects of a single variable or the joint effects of PLAND and PD or PLAND and ED. Normalized mutual information measure estimations between LST and PLAND and ED, PLAND and PD and ED and PD were 0.7679, 0.7650 and 0.7832, respectively. A combination of the three factors PLAND, PD and ED explained much of the variance of LST with a normalized mutual information measure of 0.8694. Results from this study can expand our understanding of the relationship between LST and street trees and vegetation, and provide insights for sustainable urban planning and management under changing climate.     

Effects of meridional sea surface temperature changes on stratospheric temperature and circulation

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model,we analyzed the atmospheric responses to increases in sea surface temperature （SST）.The results showed that increases in SST and the SST meridional gradient could intensify the subtropical westerly jets and significantly weaken the northern polar vortex.In the model runs,global uniform SST increases produced a more significant impact on the southern stratosphere than the northern stratosphere,while SST gradient increases produced a more significant impact on the northern stratosphere.The asymmetric responses of the northern and southern polar stratosphere to SST meridional gradient changes were found to be mainly due to different wave properties and transmissions in the northern and southern atmosphere.Although SST increases may give rise to stronger waves,the results showed that the effect of SST increases on the vertical propagation of tropospheric waves into the stratosphere will vary with height and latitude and be sensitive to SST meridional gradient changes.Both uniform and non-uniform SST increases accelerated the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation （BDC）,but the gradient increases of SST between 60°S and 60°N resulted in younger mean age-of-air in the stratosphere and a larger increase in tropical upwelling,with a much higher tropopause than from a global uniform 1.0 K SST increase.