Geoscientific R&D for high level radioactive waste disposal in Sweden — current status and future plans

SKB (Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB) is responsible for all handling, transport and storage of the nuclear wastes outside the Swedish nuclear power stations. According to Swedish law, SKB is responsible for an R&D-programme needed to take care of the radwastes. The programme comprises, among others, a general supportive geo-scientific R&D and the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) for more in-situ specific tasks.

Sweden is geologically located in the Fennoscandian shield which is dominated by gneisses and granitoids of Precambrian age. The Swedish reference repository concept thus considers an excavated vault at ca. 500 m depth in crystalline rocks. In this concept (KBS-3), copper canisters with high level waste will be emplaced in deposition holes from a system of tunnels. Blocks of highly compacted swelling bentonite clay are placed in the holes leaving ample space for the canisters. At the final closure of the repository, the galleries are backfilled with a mixture of sand and bentonite. This repository design aims to make the disposal system as redundant as possible. Although the KBS-3 concept is the reference concept, alternative concepts and/or repository lay-outs are also studied. The main alternative, currently under development at SKB, is disposal in boreholes with depths of 4–5 km. The geoscientific research will to a great extent be guided by the demands posed by the performance and safety assessments, as well as the constuctability issues. Some main functions of the geological barrier are fundamental for the long-term safety of a repository. These are: bedrock mechanical stability, a chemically stable environment as well as a slow and stable groundwater flux. The main time-table for the final disposal of long-lived radioactive waste in Sweden foresees the final selection of the disposal system and site during the beginning of next decade.     

THE STABILITY OF ROCK-VENEERED HILLSLOPES

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Monthly Variations of Water Masses in the Yellow and East China Seas, November 6, 1998

The monthly water mass variations in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea are investigated using over 40 years of historical temperature and salinity observations via a cluster analysis that incorporates geographical distance and depth separation in addition to the temperature and salinity. Results delineate monthly variations in the major water masses and provide some insight into formation mechanisms and intermixing. The major water masses include the Kuroshio-East China Sea water (KE), the Yellow Sea surface water (YSS) and bottom cold water (YSB), mixed water (MW), and coastal water (CW). The distribution of the KE water mass reveals the intrusion pattern into the area west of Cheju. A separate mixed water type appears between the KE water mass and the Yellow Sea water masses during winter. The formation mechanism of the YSB appears to be the surface cooling and active mixing in winter. In the East China Sea, during summer, surface water is differentiated from the subsurface water while there is no differentiation during winter. In the Yellow Sea, a three layer system exists in the summer and fall (May–November) while a two layer system exists during the rest of the year. A fresh water mass generated by Yangtze River discharge (YD) is present over the northern East China Sea and the southern Yellow Sea during summer. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Timing and seismic origin of the historic Luanshibao rock avalanche in the Maoyaba basin,SE Tibetan Plateau: New evidence from 10Be exposure-ages

Rock avalanche is one of the most notable geological disasters in the mountain areas, such as the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. A typical one therein is the Luanshibao (LSB) rock avalanche that occurred in the Maoyaba basin. This rock avalanche has attracted a great deal of attentions, as it has a potential threat to the construction of Sichuan-Tibet Railway. It has been widely accepted that the LSB rock avalanche was caused by a seismic event. However, it is still an open question as to the timing of the earthquake-triggered rock avalanche. Here, we report twenty new ¹⁰Be exposure-ages obtained from the deposition zone. These tightly clustered exposure-ages, combined with geomorphic evidence, indicate that the LSB rock avalanche occurred during the mid-Holocene, possibly at 5.2 ± 0.2 ka. A comparison between the timing of rock avalanche and seismic events suggests a close correlation of the LSB rock avalanche with recurrent earthquakes around ∼5 ka BP. Such a correlation is well supported by the view from previous studies.     

基于贝叶斯框架的各向异性页岩储层岩石物理反演技术

页岩岩石物理建模旨在建立页岩矿物组分、微观结构、流体填充与岩石弹性参数的关系.对四川盆地龙马溪组页岩进行岩石物理建模研究,针对页岩黏土含量高、层间微裂缝发育等特点,利用Backus平均理论描述页岩黏土矿物弹性参数,利用Chapman理论计算与水平微裂缝有关的VTI各向异性,并利用Bond变换考虑地层倾角的影响.提出以黏土矿物纵、横波速度和孔隙纵横比为拟合参数进行岩石物理反演的方法,并引入贝叶斯框架减小反演的多解性.由已知的黏土矿物纵、横波速度和孔隙纵横比作为先验信息,并以测井纵、横波速度作为约束条件建立反演的目标函数,同时利用粒子群算法进行最优化搜索.计算结果表明,基于先验约束和粒子群算法的反演方法能够较准确地反演黏土矿物的弹性参数、孔隙形态参数以及裂缝密度等参数.计算得到的黏土纵、横波速度较高,并且在一定范围内变化,这可能与龙马溪组页岩的黏土矿物组分中具有较高弹性模量的伊利石含量较高有关,同时也与黏土定向排列等微观物性特征有关.反演得到的裂缝密度与纵波各向异性参数ε呈明显的正相关,而与横波各向异性参数γ相关性较小.另外,页岩各向异性参数与黏土垂向的纵横波速度有较强的相关性.     

不同尺度裂缝对弹性波速度和各向异性影响的实验研究

裂缝广泛分布于地球介质中并且具有多尺度的特点,裂缝尺度对于油气勘探和开发有着重要的意义.本文制作了一组含不同长度裂缝的人工岩样,其中三块含裂缝岩样中的裂缝直径分别为2 mm、3 mm和4 mm,裂缝的厚度都约为0.06 mm,裂缝密度大致相同(分别为4.8%、4.86%和4.86%).在岩样含水的条件下测试不同方向上的纵横波速度,实验结果表明,虽然三块裂缝岩样中的裂缝密度大致相同,但是含不同直径裂缝岩样的纵横波速度存在差异.在各个方向上,含数量众多的小尺度裂缝的岩样中纵横波速度都明显低于含少量的大尺度裂缝的岩样中纵横波速度.尤其是对纵波速度和SV波速度,在不同尺度裂缝岩样中的差异更明显.在含数量多的小尺度裂缝的岩样中纵波各向异性和横波各向异性最高,而含少量的大尺度的裂缝的岩样中的纵波各向异性和横波各向异性较低.实验测量结果与Hudson理论模型预测结果进行了对比分析,结果发现Hudson理论考虑到了裂缝尺度对纵波速度和纵波各向异性的影响,但是忽略了其对横波速度和横波各向异性的影响.     

Statistical facies classification from multiple seismic attributes: comparison between Bayesian classification and expectation–maximization method and application in petrophysical inversion

We present here a comparison between two statistical methods for facies classifications: Bayesian classification and expectation–maximization method. The classification can be performed using multiple seismic attributes and can be extended from well logs to three‐dimensional volumes. In this work, we propose, for both methods, a sensitivity study to investigate the impact of the choice of seismic attributes used to condition the classification. In the second part, we integrate the facies classification in a Bayesian inversion setting for the estimation of continuous rock properties, such as porosity and lithological fractions, from the same set of seismic attributes. The advantage of the expectation–maximization method is that this algorithm does not require a training dataset, which is instead required in a traditional Bayesian classifier and still provides similar results. We show the application, comparison, and analysis of these methods in a real case study in the North Sea, where eight sedimentological facies have been defined. The facies classification is computed at the well location and compared with the sedimentological profile and then extended to the 3D reservoir model using up to 14 seismic attributes.     

Effects of fracture intersections on seismic dispersion: theoretical predictions versus numerical simulations

The detection and characterisation of domains of intersecting fractures are important goals in several disciplines of current interest, including exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs, nuclear waste storage, CO₂ sequestration, and groundwater hydrology, among others. The objective of this study is to propose a theoretical framework for quantifying the effects of fracture intersections on the frequency‐dependent elastic properties of fluid‐saturated porous and fractured rocks. Three characteristic frequency regimes for fluid pressure communication are identified. In the low‐frequency limit, fractures are in full pressure communication with the embedding porous matrix and with other fractures. Conversely, in the high‐frequency limit, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix and from other fractures. At intermediate frequencies, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix porosity but can be in hydraulic communication with each other, depending on whether fracture sets are intersecting. For each frequency regime, the effective stiffness coefficients are derived using the linear‐slip theory and anisotropic Gassmann equations. Explicit mathematical expressions for the two characteristic frequencies that separate the three frequency regimes are also determined. Theoretical predictions are then applied to two synthetic 2D samples, each containing two orthogonal fracture sets: one with and another without intersections. The resulting stiffness coefficients, Thomsen‐style anisotropy parameters, and the transition frequencies show good agreement with corresponding numerical simulations. The theoretical results are applicable not only to 2D but also to 3D fracture systems and are amenable to being employed in inversion schemes designed to characterise fracture systems.     

How does water near clay mineral surfaces influence the rock physics of shales?

Clays and clay‐bearing rocks like shale are extremely water sensitive. This is partly due to the interaction between water and mineral surfaces, strengthened by the presence of nanometer‐size pores and related large specific surface areas. Molecular‐scale numerical simulations, using a discrete‐element model, show that shear rigidity can be associated with structurally ordered (bound or adsorbed) water near charged surfaces. Building on these and other molecular dynamics simulations plus nanoscale experiments from the literature, the water monolayer adjacent to hydrophilic solid surfaces appears to be characterised by shear stiffness and/or enhanced viscosity. In both cases, elastic wave propagation will be affected by the bound or adsorbed water. Using a simple rock physics model, bound water properties were adjusted to match laboratory measured P‐ and S‐wave velocities on pure water‐saturated kaolinite and smectite. To fit the measured stress sensitivity, particularly for kaolinite, the contribution from solid‐grain contact stiffness needs to be added. The model predicts, particularly for S‐waves, that viscoelastic bound water could be a source of dispersion in clay and clay‐rich rocks. The bound‐water‐based rock physics model is found to represent a lower bound to laboratory‐measured velocities obtained with shales of different mineralogy and porosity levels.