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51.
Nature-triggered hazards and disasters have traditionally been treated only from the lens of geophysical and biophysical processes,
implying that the root cause of large-scale death and destruction lies in the natural domain rather than in a coupled human–environment
system. Conceptually, the physical domain has been seen as discrete and separate from human entities, and solutions were sought
in the technological intervention and control of the physical environment—solutions that often ended up being less effective
than hoped for and sometimes even counter productive. At all levels, institutions have directed and redirected most of their
financial and logistical resources into the search for scientific and engineering solutions without allocating due attention
and resources towards the assessment of effects and effectiveness of the applications of such technological outcomes. However,
over the last two decades, forceful criticisms of the ‘dominant’ technocratic approach to hazards analysis have appeared in
the literature and consequently there has not only been a shift in thinking of causation of disaster loss in terms of human
vulnerability, but also newer questions have arisen regarding distinguishing between the ‘physical exposure’ of people to
threats and societal vulnerability, and linking them with propensity to hazards loss.
Though the vulnerability/resilience paradigm has largely replaced the hazards paradigm within the social sciences and much
of the professional emergency and disaster management communities, this shift of thinking has not progressed to much of the
physical science community, decision-makers and the public, who have not yet accepted the idea that understanding and using
human and societal dimensions is equally or more important than trying to deal and control nature through the use of technology.
This special issue is intended to further the idea that the aspects of community and peoples’ power to mitigate, to improve
coping mechanisms, to respond effectively, and recover with vigor against the environmental extremes are of paramount conceptual
and policy importance. 相似文献
52.
In this paper, a simple scenario and probabilistic approach is used to assess the potential groundwater risk due to proposed
overdraft remedial actions in cone of depression, Jining City, China. Focusing on the concentrations of Chloride ions (Cl−) and total hardness (TH), the impact of artificial recharge and reduced pumping on groundwater quality and quantity is analysed
by using the three-dimensional finite difference groundwater flow and transport model, Visual MODFLOW, to simulate groundwater
flow and transport within the study area based on scenarios, and utilizes SURFER software to map risk levels. Although 5,
10 or 15% reduced pumping with artificial recharge leads to more decrease in Cl− and TH concentrations than the 25%, less volume increase is achieved for the remediation of land subsidence and other environmental
problems in the cone of depression. The Cl− concentrations in recovered groundwater are within the desired concentration of 200 mg/l; however, TH in some cases are above
the maximum permissible limit of 500 mg/l, with an exceedence probability of about 0.67 for recharge and recharge with reduced
pumping at 25%. The presence of fractures and hydrogeological complexity greatly determines impacts of remediation, and the
22% reduced pumping with artificial recharge offers an optimum strategy for overdraft remediation in the Jining cone of depression. 相似文献
53.
54.
55.
This paper points to the need for seismic risk and vulnerability assessment of infrastructure systems, most notably tall structures and coastal facilities, in Kuwait and other Arabian Gulf countries. Building codes in the region currently lack seismic provisions, despite evidence of a potential threat from large-magnitude earthquakes originating from the southern part of the Zagros fold belt. The historical record of Iranian earthquakes that may have caused significant ground motion in the Gulf region is examined, as are reports of coastal damage from tsunamis. Various specific tasks, expected to constitute research priorities of a Joint Center for Risk Research, a cooperative research program involving Princeton and Kuwait Universities, are outlined. 相似文献
56.
Groundwater contamination: risk management and assessment for landfills in Mar del Plata, Argentina 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
This study presents a program for risk management in the contamination of groundwater resulting from leachate in landfills
at Mar del Plata (Argentina). The program includes prediction, prevention, monitory observation and mitigation as actions
that must be taken prior to, during, and after contamination occurs. This routine aids in the identification of weak points
and failures of the program for those who are in charge of making decisions, and will allow better use of limited financial
and technical resources based on planning, thus minimizing disconnected determinations.
Results of the prediction stage were confirmed through monitoring. The presence of a plume of contamination more than 100 m
from the landfill was shown, thus proving that implementation of a monitoring plan to follow the development of the contaminated
plume must be implemented, particularly in populated areas which depend on residential wells for their water supply.
Received: 8 May 2000 · Accepted: 14 August 2000 相似文献
57.
58.
Richard E. A. Robertson 《Natural Hazards》1995,11(2):163-191
The Soufriere volcano is a 1220 m high stratovolcano which occupies the northern part of the island of St. Vincent. It is one of the most active centres of volcanism in the Caribbean and has a record of activity dating back to the Pleistocene. Historic eruptions (since 1718) have caused over 1600 deaths and resulted in damage to property valued in excess of 4.8 million USD. In addition, current development plans for the area point towards increased risk of disastrous consequences from future activity at the volcano.All aspects of risk relevant to the volcano, are discussed, with particular emphasis on the manner in which these are perceived and on the question of acceptable risk. A method is presented for use in risk assessment of volcanic hazard and a number of risk zones are defined for the Soufriere volcano. Numerical estimates of the relative loss expected within each zone are obtained from a consideration of the value of property at risk, its vulnerability to the hazardous volcanic events and the expected spatial impact of volcanic events. Such estimates suggest that the northern-most third of the island is at least ten times more at risk than areas further south. The likelihood of death and destruction is extreme in such high risk areas, while the most feasible method of loss reduction is evacuation before an eruption occurs.Formerly at Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom. 相似文献
59.
O. Slaymaker 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1999,88(2):317-324
Although British Columbia experiences many natural hazards, there is as yet no unified policy to promote natural hazard management
in the province. The problem is not in the quantity and quality of geoscience assessment of natural hazards, but instead,
it is suggested, in the isolation of that work from broader risk perspectives and in the lack of clarity of division of responsibilities
between various levels of government. The example of recent changes in perception of the terrain stability problem illustrates
how natural hazard problems are driven by social and political priorities rather than by geoscience priorities.
Received: 22 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 November 1998 相似文献
60.
Isaac Larbi Emmanuel Obuobie Anne Verhoef Stefan Julich Karl-Henz Feger Aymar Yaovi Bossa 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(13):2196-2209
ABSTRACT The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment. 相似文献