地震灾害风险防治协同机制研究

在大应急体制下,地震灾害风险防治迎来新的机遇,同时也面临诸多问题和挑战。通过研究14个省和2个自治区地震灾害风险防治协同文件与协同实践,聚焦政府内部,以综合部门与行业部门的关系为重点,对我国地震灾害风险防治协同情况进行梳理和审视,为进一步完善大应急体制下的地震灾害风险防治协同机制提供实践资料、理论分析和政策建议。     

Anthropogenic threat assessment of marine-associated fauna in Spencer Gulf,South Australia

Assessing the vulnerability of species to [anthropogenic threats is an essential step when developing management strategies for wild populations. With industrial development forecasted to increase in Spencer Gulf, South Australia, it is crucial to assess the ongoing effects of anthropogenic threats to resident and migratory species. Expert elicitation was used to assess 27 threats against 38 threatened, protected, and iconic marine-associated species. Species and threat interactions were assessed individually, and as taxonomic or functional groups. Climate change had the greatest overall exposure (c.f. risk) across species, followed by disturbance, pollution, disease/invasive species, and fishing/aquaculture threats. The largest overall sensitivities (c.f. consequences) were pollution and disease/invasive species, followed by climate change, disturbance and fishing/aquaculture threats. Vulnerability scores (exposure x sensitivity) showed the climate change group posing the greatest overall threat in Spencer Gulf, with individual climatic threats ranking as three of the top four biggest threats to most animal groups. Noise, shipping, and net fishing were considered the greatest region-specific individual threats to marine mammals; as were trawl fishing, line fishing, and coastal activities to fish/cuttlefish; trawl fishing, line fishing, and net fishing to elasmobranchs; and oil spill, disease, and coastal activities to sea/shorebirds. Eighteen of the 20 highest vulnerability scores involved the short-beaked common dolphin, Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin, and Australian sea lion, highlighting the particular susceptibility of these species to specific threats. These findings provide a synthesis of key threats and vulnerable species, and give management a basis to direct future monitoring and threat mitigation efforts in the region.     

Environmental management frameworks for offshore mining: the New Zealand approach

The New Zealand region contains untapped natural mineral, oil, and gas resources while also supporting globally unique and diverse faunal communities that need to be managed sustainably. In this paper key information from the international literature is reviewed that can underpin an Environmental Mining Management System which includes elements of Environmental Risk Assessment, Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Management Planning. This paper focuses on four developing areas of seafloor mining activities presently being undertaken or planned in the New Zealand region: hydrocarbons (oil and gas), minerals, ironsands and phosphorite nodules. A number of issues with the implementation of environmental management systems are identified including the difficulty of assessing new marine activities or technologies and the need for standardised reporting metrics. Finally, the development of ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning is discussed which will be required to enhance environmental mining management frameworks in New Zealand.     

Business case for mussel aquaculture in offshore wind farms in the North Sea

The European Blue Growth strategy aims to expand the new maritime sectors of aquaculture, energy, biotechnology, coastal tourism and mineral mining. Growth of these sectors will increases pressure on the seas, particularly on those areas that are densely used by traditional sectors such as fisheries and transport. This has triggered interest in developing multiuse of space and multiuse platforms at sea. This paper assesses the feasibility of offshore mussel production project in wind farms by design and ex-ante evaluation of a mussel aquaculture system in the North Sea. A system for mussel cultivation in the Dutch Borssele offshore wind farm was designed, producing both mussel seed and consumption-sized mussels with semi-submerged longlines. Based on the economic model and the risk assessment, this paper concludes that mussel aquaculture is an appealing commercial model for increased returns in offshore wind farms. The economic models shows that the internal rate of return and net present value are positive and based on the sensitivity analysis, it can be concluded that these results are robust.     

Distribution and bioaccumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides residues in sediments and Manila clams (Ruditapes philippinarum) from along the Mid-Western coast of Korea

The distribution and bioaccumulation features of PCBs, DDTs, and HCHs were investigated in the sediments and Manila clams collected from along the Mid-Western coast of Korea. The measured concentrations of ΣPCBs, ΣDDTs and ΣHCHs were 1.08–3.5, 0.12–0.35 and 0.090–0.30 ng g⁻¹ dw in sediment, and 33–390, 7.4–46 and 6.3–27 ng g⁻¹ lipid in Manila clam, respectively. Their levels were found to be relatively lower than those of other contaminated areas and the consumption of Manila clam from these areas seems to be safe for human health according to calculated lifetime cancer risk and hazard indices. The ΣPCBs and ΣDDTs concentrations in sediments showed a significant relationship to those in clams. The significant correlation was observed between BSAF in clams and K_ow for each PCB congeners and DDT metabolites. These findings support that the PCBs and DDTs levels, which are highly hydrophobic chemicals, in clam reflect the sediment pollution through bioaccumulation.     

Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi

The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world.     

Whitefish wars: Pangasius, politics and consumer confusion in Europe

Rapid growth in production of the farmed Vietnamese whitefish pangasius and its trade with the European Union has provoked criticism of the fish's environmental, social and safety credentials by actors including WWF and Members of the European Parliament and associated negative media coverage. This paper reviews the range of claims communicated about pangasius (identified as a form of mass mediated risk governance), in light of scientific evidence and analysis of data from the EU's Rapid Alert System for Food and Feeds food safety notification system for imported seafood. This analysis shows pangasius to be generally safe, environmentally benign and beneficial for actors along the international value chains that characterise the trade. The case is made that increasingly politicised debates in Europe around risk and uncertainty are potentially counterproductive for EU seafood security and European aquaculture industry, and that the trade in pangasius can contribute to sustainable seafood consumption in a number of ways. Transparent evidence-based assessment and systems for communicating complex issues of risk for products such as pangasius are required in order to support continuance of fair and mutually beneficial trade.     

大城市地域空间结构划分研究——以广州市为例

采用定性与定量相结合的"三步法"进行广州市城市地域空间结构的划分:第一步采用区位商法,以区(市)级行政区为基本单位,选择能够反映城市地域特征的6个指标,进行地域结构的大致划分;第二步以镇(街)主要经济社会指标为依据,进行边缘区进一步细分;第三步参照城市意象分析方法,根据主要景观轴的景观梯度变化验证城市地域结构划分效果.划分结果比较符合广州市的地域空间格局,有助于广州市城市地域空间管理,也为国内其它城市地域结构划分提供新的思维与方法.     

Magnitude–frequency relationships of debris flows and debris avalanches in relation to slope relief

Probability of occurrence, hazard intensity and encounter probability are key parameters in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of landslides. All are strongly dependent on magnitude of the landslides. As a result, magnitude–frequency analysis should be a part of QRA. Deriving representative magnitude–frequency relationships for debris avalanches and debris flows, however, is difficult. One key problem is illustrated with the example of a unique database from the coastal region of British Columbia, Canada, which was compiled entirely from detailed ground investigations. The magnitude of debris avalanches and debris flows is not an independent statistical quantity, but a function of the scale of a given slope, as characterized by the slope length. Thus, attempting to derive probability and magnitude for a given location or sub-region from a regionally-derived magnitude–frequency curve may lead to incorrect predictions. The same problem is pertinent to the application of the same approach to any type of landslide in which the largest combined dimension of the source volume (including entrainment) is of the same order as the length of the slope. It is recommended that greater emphasis be placed on site-specific geological observations, at the expense of generalized statistics.