Predicting landslides for risk analysis — Spatial models tested by a cross-validation technique

A landslide-hazard map is intended to show the location of future slope instability. Most spatial models of the hazard lack reliability tests of the procedures and predictions for estimating the probabilities of future landslides, thus precluding use of the maps for probabilistic risk analysis. To correct this deficiency we propose a systematic procedure comprising two analytical steps: “relative-hazard mapping” and “empirical probability estimation”. A mathematical model first generates a prediction map by dividing an area into “prediction” classes according to the relative likelihood of occurrence of future landslides, conditional by local geomorphic and topographic characteristics. The second stage estimates empirically the probability of landslide occurrence in each prediction class, by applying a cross-validation technique. Cross-validation, a “blind test” here using non-overlapping spatial or temporal subsets of mapped landslides, evaluates accuracy of the prediction and from the resulting statistics estimates occurrence probabilities of future landslides. This quantitative approach, exemplified by several experiments in an area near Lisbon, Portugal, can accommodate any subsequent analysis of landslide risk.     

Toxicity testing,risk assessment,and options for dredged material management

Programs for evaluating proposed discharges of dredged material into waters of the United States specify a tiered testing and evaluation protocol that includes performance of acute and chronic bioassays to assess toxicity of the dredged sediments. Although these evaluations reflect the toxicological risks associated with disposal activities to some degree, analysis activities are limited to the sediments of each dredging project separately. Cumulative risks to water column and benthic organisms at and near the designated disposal site are therefore difficult to assess. An alternate approach is to focus attention on the disposal site, with the goal of understanding more directly the risks of multiple disposal events to receiving ecosystems. Here we review current US toxicity testing and evaluation protocols, and describe an application of ecological risk assessment that allows consideration of the temporal and spatial components of risk to receiving aquatic ecosystems. When expanded to include other disposal options, this approach can provide the basis for holistic management of dredged material disposal.     

A comprehensive and systematic approach to developing and documenting conceptual models of contaminant release and migration at the Hanford Site

The U. S. Department of Energys Richland Operations Office has initiated efforts to adapt and implement the features, events, and processes (FEP) methodology used in scenario development for nuclear waste disposal programs to the environmental management and remediation problems facing the Hanford site. These efforts have shown that modification of the FEPs methodology to incorporate the use of process relationship diagrams (PRD) is effective in facilitating the development of conceptual models and selection of potentially relevant factors (i.e., FEPs) to be incorporated into a specific environmental assessment. In adopting this methodology for Hanford, a master PRD was created to provide a structure to identify these factors and to illustrate the relationships among them. The organizational framework of the master PRD was developed to match the organization of current Hanford site-wide environmental assessment activities and to facilitate screening of the FEPs relevant to the specific assessments needed for the site.     

Landslide risk evaluation and hazard zoning for rapid and long-travel landslides in urban development areas

Risk evaluation for earthquake-induced rapid and long-travel landslides in densely populated urban areas is currently the most important disaster mitigation task in landslide-threatened areas throughout the world. The research achievements of the IPL M-101 APERITIF project were applied to two urban areas in megacities of Japan. One site is in the upper slope of the Nikawa landslide site where previous movements were triggered by the 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquake. During detailed investigation, the slope was found to be at risk from a rapid and long-travel landslide induced by sliding surface liquefaction by earthquakes similar in scale to the 1995 event. A new plan to prevent the occurrence of this phenomenon was proposed and the plan was implemented. Another area is the Tama residential area near Tokyo. A set of field and laboratory investigations including laser scanner, geological drilling and ring-shear tests showed that there was a risk of sliding surface liquefaction for both sites. A geotechnical computer simulation (Rapid/LS) using the quantitative data obtained in the study allowed urban landslide hazard zoning to be made at individual street level.     

ON CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE PRODUCT OF THREE MEANS OF THREE NORMALEY DISTRIBUTED POPULATIONS

In many environmental applications,such as exposure assessment and risk modelling,the desiredestimate is a random variable computed as the product of three independently distributed randomvariables.These variables may not necessarily have the same mean and variance.The method for findingthe 100(1-α)% confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable has been proposed bysome practitioners as the product of the 100(1-α)% confidence interval of the three means.In this paperwe show that the distribution of the product of three independent normal random variables is not normal.We find the mean and variance of the product distribution.Further,we show that although the meanof the product is equal to the product of the means,the product of the three confidence intervals is nota good approximation of the confidence intervals for the mean of the product variable.The confidenceinterval of the mean of the product variable may be estimated by computer simulation.An algorithmfor estimating the confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable is given.The programimplementing this algorithm is given as an appendix.     

Risk assessment for optimal freshwater inflow in response to sustainability indicators in semi-arid coastal bay

Coastal zones are the primary interface for the exchange of natural and man-made materials between terrestrial and coastal ecosystems. While continuous industrial development and population growth in the coastal region promote unprecedented economic prosperity, water resource management in bay and estuary areas turns out to be a crucial challenge. Therefore, local, state, and federal water planning groups are attempting to manage the supply of freshwater inflow based on sustainability goals, especially for semi-arid coastal regions like South Texas. Surface and ground water management practices in this semi-arid coastal region are implemented to ensure an ever-lasting water supply on one hand and to maintain ecosystem integrity in the bay and estuary system on the other hand. The aim of this study is to apply a stochastic compromise programming model to identify a compromise solution under uncertainty in terms of two competing objectives: minimizing freshwater release from a coastal reservoir and maximizing fishery harvest in its associated bay—Corpus Christi Bay, South Texas. The global criterion method used in the solution procedure seeks to select a compromise solution that possesses the shortest distance from a positive ideal solution (PIS) and the farthest distance from a negative ideal solution (NIS). Solutions were found using three distance-based functions in conjunction with stochastic constraints reflecting the risk levels involved in decision-making. Results indicate that current flows in the mouth of the Nueces River are not sufficient to maintain the salinity level and to satisfy harvest requirements in the Corpus Christi Bay if water supply goal in the city has higher priority. Therefore, a sustainable management plan of exploring the structure of demand and supply is highly desirable in this fast growing urban region.     

Snow-avalanche and debris-flow hazards in the fjords of north-western Iceland,mitigation and prevention

In the fjords of north-western Iceland, snow-avalanche and debris-flow hazards threaten 65% of the inhabitants. In this area, both historical and geomorphological evidences clearly demonstrate the recurrent danger from the steep slopes. Hazard vulnerability has increased during the last century, in connection with the population development of the Westfjords. Two snow-avalanche disasters during 1995 (in which 34 people were killed in two villages) prompted efforts to both mitigate and prevent future snow-avalanche and debris-flow activity. Research (qualitative and quantitative) on process characteristics describes prone terrain, runout distance, process behaviour along the slope, morphometric properties of the deposits and triggering factors. Acceptable risk, hazard and risk zoning are clearly defined by official regulations. Evacuation plans are determined from statistical characterisation of the risk and dynamic numerical modelling. To enhance the risk reduction, permanent and temporary measures aim to control the processes and to protect the population.