商品购销地域分布研究方法初探

本文对商品购销基地的确定,它们在地域分布上的集中程度以及影响这种分布的主要因素等提出了相应的研究方法。并提出了各地区商品供求状况的衡量指标、以及确定商品调出,调入区、商品合理流向的方法。     

论断层地震危险度

应用应力摩尔圆方法,探讨了断层能动度与构造应力方向和断层面几何特征的关系,并与断层活动速率对比分析,将断层失稳度定量化。最后结合地震时间逼近度,求出了断层地震危险度的定量指标,将理论模型应用于渭河盆地南缘断层,取得了较好效果。     

Tsunami risk analysis for China

Historical data have been used in this paper, in particular that available on the tsunami history and the geological and seismological characteristics along the coasts of China. The nature and effects of both local tsunamis and tele-tsunamis on the coasts of China are analyzed. The coastal response of China to tsunamis is estimated theoretically, also. Finally, the tsunami risk for the coast of China is calculated and the zonation of preliminary tsunami hazard of China is mapped for three levels of hazardicity.     

Estimation of ship motions using closed-form expressions

A semi-analytical approach is used to derive frequency response functions for the wave-induced motions for monohull ships. The results are given as closed-form expressions and the required input information for the procedure is restricted to the main dimensions: length, breadth, draught, block coefficient and water plane area together with speed and heading. The formulas make it simple to obtain quick estimates of the wave-induced motions and accelerations in the conceptual design phase and to perform a sensitivity study of the variation with main dimensions and operational profile.     

Global scope and economics of illegal fishing

We present a conceptual model for the analysis of the costs and benefit aspects of the risk inherent in illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) activity. We then develop and present a map of IUU incidences as reported in the Fisheries Centre's Sea Around Us project IUU global database. This map shows that IUU activities are quite widespread geographically. We next present an analysis of the cost and benefit aspects of risks of IUU fishing. A key result of the study is that for the cases analyzed as a group; the expected benefits from IUU fishing far exceed the expected cost of being apprehended. For an assumed 1 in 5 chance of being apprehended, our calculations show that reported fines for the vessels apprehended will have to be increased by 24 times for the expected cost to be at least as much as the expected benefits.     

顶管工程项目承包商的风险管理

顶管工程项目具有较高的风险,风险管理的难度也较大。本文分析了顸管工程项目承包商风险的种类、风险管理的特点及重点,探讨了顶管工程项目承包商风险的防范对策与措施。     

顶管施工中的安全风险管理

论述了安全风险及安全风险管理的概念,探讨了顶管施工中可能遇到的安全风险以及安全风险管理的过程,最后提出了顶管施工中安全风险的规避对策与措施。     

隧道下穿地铁拟换乘车站施工监测与安全分析

隧道下穿地铁既有车站为重大风险工程,下穿拟换乘车站时更应进行严格的风险评估与控制,以保证工程施工前后地铁车站的安全运营。本文主要就某新建隧道下穿北京地铁拟换乘车站万寿路站的风险评估和第三方监测进行研究。新建隧道施工可诱发既有车站结构的沉降,造成车站轨道过量变形,进而影响地铁安全运营,本工程采用了结构检测、施工影响模拟预测和第三方监测等工程风险评估和控制手段,结果表明万寿路站受隧道施工影响较小,地铁运营未受影响。     

奥布公路泥石流危险性评价

作为喀喇昆仑公路的重要组成部分,奥依塔克-布伦口(简称奥布)公路受到沿线数量众多且规模较大的泥石流影响,常导致行车中断,人员和车辆安全受到威胁。在现场地质考察和走访基础上,依据ArcGIS工具对奥布公路段的15条典型泥石流沟开展了重点调查和危险性评价。首先对汇流面积、纵坡度、面积宽度比、堆积区面积和距公路距离等5个评价因子属性进行归一化处理;然后采用两层结构的层次分析法计算得到影响因子的权重,随后将属性函数与权重乘积加和,得到灾害易发性指数(DFRD);最后对泥石流危险度(DRFR)进行计算分析和危险程度分级。结果发现,高-中度危险的11条泥石流主要分布在布伦口峡谷上游、盖孜检查站和加水沟之间,构成了泥石流灾害发育较为集中且危害性较大的路段。工程上相应采用隧道、高架桥等绕避措施,取得较好成效。